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Women athletes at the University of Colorado, Boulder, have a long-term graduation rate of \(67 \%\) (Source: The Cbronicle of Higher Education). Over the past several years, a random sample of 38 women athletes at the school showed that 21 eventually graduated. Does this indicate that the population proportion of women athletes who graduate from the University of Colorado, Boulder, is now less than \(67 \%\) ? Use a \(5 \%\) level of significance.

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, there is not enough evidence to suggest the graduation rate is less than \(67\%\) at a \(5\%\) significance level.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Hypotheses

We set up our null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis \(H_0\) is that the population proportion \(p\) of women athletes who graduate is \(67\%\). The alternative hypothesis \(H_a\) is that the population proportion is less than \(67\%\). Thus, we have:\[ H_0: p = 0.67 \]\[ H_a: p < 0.67 \]
02

Collect Sample Data

From the problem, we have a sample size \(n = 38\) and the number of women athletes who graduated is \(x = 21\). The sample proportion \(\hat{p}\) is calculated as:\[ \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} = \frac{21}{38} \approx 0.5526 \]
03

Calculate the Test Statistic

We will use the formula for the test statistic for a proportion:\[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1-p_0)}{n}}} \]Plugging in the values:\[ z = \frac{0.5526 - 0.67}{\sqrt{\frac{0.67(1-0.67)}{38}}} \]Calculate the denominator:\[ \sqrt{\frac{0.67 \times 0.33}{38}} \approx 0.0775 \]Then the test statistic is:\[ z \approx \frac{-0.1174}{0.0775} \approx -1.514 \]
04

Determine the Critical Value and P-Value

For a \(5\%\) level of significance in a left-tailed test, we find the critical value from the standard normal distribution table, which is approximately \(-1.645\). We look up the p-value for \(z \approx -1.514\), which is about \(0.065\).
05

Make a Decision

Since the p-value \(0.065 > 0.05\) and the test statistic \(-1.514\) is greater than the critical value \(-1.645\), we do not reject the null hypothesis. There is not enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of women athletes who graduate has decreased to less than \(67\%\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
To understand hypothesis testing, it's crucial to grasp the concept of sample proportion. In sampling, the sample proportion (\(\hat{p}\)) acts as an estimate of the true population proportion. Put simply, it's the fraction of items in our sample that possess a particular attribute.
In our exercise, the sample proportion is the fraction of women athletes who graduated from the sample group. With 21 out of 38 athletes graduating, the sample proportion calculated is:\[ \hat{p} = \frac{21}{38} \approx 0.5526 \]This calculation tells us that roughly 55.26% of the sampled women athletes graduated.
When testing hypotheses, this sample result is compared to a hypothesized population proportion to determine if there's a significant difference.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a crucial component in hypothesis testing. It uses sample data to determine how far away the sample proportion is from the hypothesized population proportion. The standard test statistic for proportion is represented by the standard normal distribution (z-distribution).
For our scenario, the test statistic (\(z\)) is computed as follows:\[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1-p_0)}{n}}} \]Here, \(\hat{p}\) is our sample proportion, \(p_0\) is the hypothesized population proportion (67% in this case), and \(n\)is the sample size.
In our example, the calculated test statistic is approximately \(z \approx -1.514\), indicating the number of standard deviations our sample proportion is from the hypothesized value.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) is the foundation of hypothesis testing. It assumes no effect or difference in the population parameter unless evidence suggests otherwise.
In our exercise, the null hypothesis states that the proportion (\(p\)) of women athletes who graduate is equal to 67%. Formally, we write:\[ H_0: p = 0.67 \]The null hypothesis provides a baseline that we test against. Our goal is to determine whether there's enough statistical evidence to reject this assumption in favor of an alternative.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis (\(H_a\)) presents a contrasting claim to the null hypothesis. It suggests that a specific effect or difference might exist.
In our scenario, the alternative hypothesis posits that the proportion (\(p\)) of women athletes who graduate is actually less than 67%. This is expressed as:\[ H_a: p < 0.67 \]
If our statistical analysis yields enough evidence against the null hypothesis, we would accept the alternative hypothesis. However, in this exercise, since the p-value (0.065) is greater than our significance level (0.05), we do not have sufficient evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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