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In order to use a normal distribution to compute confidence intervals for \(p\), what conditions on \(n p\) and \(n q\) need to be satisfied?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Both \(n p\) and \(n q\) should be at least 5.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the problem

We need to determine the conditions under which a normal distribution can be used to compute confidence intervals for a binomial proportion parameter, often denoted by \(p\). For a binomial distribution, the conditions typically involve the sample size \(n\) and the proportions \(p\) and \(q = 1 - p\).
02

Identifying the conditions

The conditions are that both \(n p\) and \(n q\) must be large enough. This is usually quantified by requiring that \(n p \geq 5\) and \(n q \geq 5\). These conditions are necessary so that the binomial distribution can be approximated well by a normal distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is a fundamental concept in statistics, crucial for understanding the behavior of data under various conditions.
Often referred to as the "bell curve" due to its distinctive shape, a normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution characterized by a symmetric curve centered around the mean.
Most values cluster around a central region, with identical tails on either side of the mean. This distribution is defined by two parameters: the mean (c) and the standard deviation (c).
  • The mean represents the average or central value of the data.
  • The standard deviation measures the dispersion or spread of the data from the mean.
In statistical analyses involving binomial proportions, a normal distribution can be used as an approximation to calculate confidence intervals.
This approach requires certain conditions to be met, making the normal distribution a versatile tool for analyzing binomial data.
Understanding how the normal distribution operates helps in evaluating probabilities and making inferences about populations.
Binomial Proportion Parameter
In statistics, the binomial proportion parameter, often denoted by \(p\), represents the probability of success in a binomial experiment.
A binomial experiment is a sequence of independent trials, each with two possible outcomes: success or failure. The parameter \(p\) quantifies the likelihood of a successful outcome in any given trial.Calculating confidence intervals for \(p\) provides a range of plausible values for this probability. To do this with a normal approximation:
  • We calculate the sample proportion, \(\hat{p}\), which is the number of successful trials divided by the total number of trials.
  • Using \(\hat{p}\), the sample mean, and the variance, we can build a confidence interval around \(p\).
The benefit of using a normal distribution to estimate binomial proportions is that it simplifies calculations and is particularly useful for large samples.
For accurate approximations, this method hinges on satisfying specific conditions related to sample size.
Sample Size Conditions
To apply a normal distribution for computing confidence intervals of a binomial proportion, specific sample size conditions must be met.
These conditions ensure that the binomial distribution of the data can be approximated by the normal distribution, leading to accurate and reliable statistical inferences.The principal conditions are:
  • \(n \, p \geq 5\) This indicates that the expected number of successes in the sample is large enough.
  • \(n \, q \geq 5\) Similarly, the expected number of failures should also be sufficiently large, where \(q = 1 - p\).
Meeting these criteria confirms that both the successes and failures in the sample are significant in magnitude.
When these thresholds are satisfied, the central limit theorem assures that the distribution of the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\) is approximately normal.
These conditions are crucial for ensuring the validity of statistical methods and the confidence intervals derived from them.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Over the past several months, an adult patient has been treated for tetany (severe muscle spasms). This condition is associated with an average total calcium level below \(6 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{dl}(\) Reference: Manual of Laboratory and Diagnostic Tests, F. Fischbach). Recently, the patient's total calcium tests gave the following readings (in \(\mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{dl}\) ). \(9.3\) \(\begin{array}{llllll}8.8 & 10.1 & 8.9 & 9.4 & 9.8 & 10.0\end{array}\) \(\begin{array}{lll}9.9 & 11.2 & 12.1\end{array}\) (a) Use a calculator to verify that \(\bar{x}=9.95\) and \(s \approx 1.02\). (b) Find a \(99.9 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean of total calcium in this patient's blood. (c) Based on your results in part (b), do you think this patient still has a calcium deficiency? Explain.

At Burnt Mesa Pueblo, the method of tree ring dating gave the following years A.D. for an archaeological excavation site (Bandelier Archaeological Excavation Project: Summer 1990 Excavations at Burnt Mesa Pueblo, edited by Kohler, Washington State University): \(\begin{array}{lllllllll}1189 & 1271 & 1267 & 1272 & 1268 & 1316 & 1275 & 1317 & 1275\end{array}\) (a) Use a calculator with mean and standard deviation keys to verify that the sample mean year is \(\bar{x} \approx 1272\), with sample standard deviation \(s \approx 37\) years. (b) Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the mean of all tree ring dates from this archaeological site.

Isabel Myers was a pioneer in the study of personality types. The following information is taken from \(A\) Guide to the Development and Use of the Myers- Briggs Type Indicator, by Myers and McCaulley (Consulting Psychologists Press). In a random sample of 62 professional actors, it was found that 39 were extroverts. (a) Let \(p\) represent the proportion of all actors who are extroverts. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\). Give a brief interpretation of the meaning of the confidence interval you have found. (c) Do you think the conditions \(n p>5\) and \(n q>5\) are satisfied in this problem? Explain why this would be an important consideration.

Isabel Myers was a pioneer in the study of personality types. She identified four basic personality preferences that are described at length in the book \(A\) Guide to the Development and Use of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, by Myers and McCaulley (Consulting Psychologists Press). Marriage counselors know that couples who have none of the four preferences in common may have a stormy marriage. Myers took a random sample of 375 married couples and found that 289 had two or more personality preferences in common. In another random sample of 571 married couples, it was found that only 23 had no preferences in common. Let \(p_{1}\) be the population proportion of all married couples who have two or more personality preferences in common. Let \(p_{2}\) be the population proportion of all married couples who have no personality perferences in common. (a) Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\). (b) Explain the meaning of the confidence interval in part (a) in the context of this problem. Does the confidence interval contain all positive, all negative, or both positive and negative numbers? What does this tell you (at the \(99 \%\) confidence level) about the proportion of married couples with two or more personality preferences in common compared with the proportion of married couples sharing no personality preferences in common?

What price do farmers get for their watermelon crops? In the third week of July, a random sample of 40 farming regions gave a sample mean of \(\bar{x}=\$ 6.88\) per 100 pounds of watermelon. Assume that \(\sigma\) is known to be \(\$ 1.92\) per 100 pounds (Reference: Agricultural Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture). (a) Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean price (per 100 pounds) that farmers in this region get for their watermelon crop. What is the margin of error? (b) Find the sample size necessary for a \(90 \%\) confidence level with maximal error of estimate \(E=0.3\) for the mean price per 100 pounds of watermelon. (c) A farm brings 15 tons of watermelon to market. Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean cash value of this crop. What is the margin of error? Hint: 1 ton is 2000 pounds.

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