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In a survey of 1000 large corporations, 250 said that, given a choice between a job candidate who smokes and an equally qualified nonsmoker, the nonsmoker would get the job (USA Today). (a) Let \(p\) represent the proportion of all corporations preferring a nonsmoking candidate. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(0.95\) confidence interval for \(p\). (c) As a news writer, how would you report the survey results regarding the proportion of corporations that would hire the equally qualified nonsmoker? What is the margin of error based on a \(95 \%\) confidence interval?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The point estimate is 0.25; the confidence interval is 0.2232 to 0.2768.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Given Data

The survey involves 1000 corporations, 250 of which prefer nonsmoking candidates. This means the sample size \(n = 1000\) and the number of successes (corporations preferring nonsmokers) \(x = 250\).
02

Calculate the Point Estimate for p

The point estimate for the proportion \(p\) is given by the formula \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \). Substituting the known values, we have \( \hat{p} = \frac{250}{1000} = 0.25 \). Thus, the point estimate for \(p\) is 0.25.
03

Find the Standard Error of p

The standard error (SE) of the proportion is calculated using \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \). Substituting the known values, \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.25 \times 0.75}{1000}} \approx 0.0137 \).
04

Determine the Z-Value for the Confidence Level

For a \(95\%\) confidence interval, the critical value \(Z\) is \(1.96\), which corresponds to the standard normal distribution.
05

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is calculated using the formula: \( \hat{p} \pm Z \times SE \). So, \(0.25 \pm 1.96 \times 0.0137\). Calculating the margin of error, \(1.96 \times 0.0137 \approx 0.0268\). The confidence interval is \(0.25 \pm 0.0268\), resulting in \(0.2232 \text{ to } 0.2768\).
06

Provide a Report of the Survey Results

The survey results suggest that the estimated proportion of all corporations preferring nonsmoking candidates is between 22.32\% and 27.68\% with a margin of error of \(2.68\%\) at a \(95\%\) confidence level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
A point estimate is a single value used to approximate an unknown population parameter. It's essentially a best guess or estimate derived from sample data. In our context, the point estimate is used to gauge the proportion of corporations that prefer hiring nonsmokers over smokers.Given the exercise, the point estimate for the proportion \( p \) of all corporations preferring a nonsmoking candidate is calculated using the formula:
  • \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \)
where \( x \) is the number of corporations that prefer nonsmokers, and \( n \) is the total number of corporations surveyed.By substituting the given numbers from the survey:
  • \( \hat{p} = \frac{250}{1000} = 0.25 \).
This means our point estimate indicates that 25% of the corporations prefer nonsmoking candidates. It is important to note that this estimate is based solely on the sample data and serves as a foundational step for further statistical analysis.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion is a vital aspect of statistical survey analysis. It refers to the ratio derived from the sample, describing the fraction of the sample exhibiting a particular characteristic, which in this case is the preference for nonsmoking candidates.From the survey details, the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is:
  • Calculated with \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \).
  • Here, \( x = 250 \) and \( n = 1000 \), so \( \hat{p} = 0.25 \).
This sample proportion value of 0.25 or 25% offers a direct representation of the observed data in the survey. It reflects the likelihood that an individual corporation, within the sample, prefers a nonsmoker.The sample proportion forms a crucial starting point for creating a confidence interval, which further helps to generalize this likelihood to the broader population. This transition from sample insights to population inferences is fundamental in statistics.
Margin of Error
The margin of error quantifies the range in which the true population parameter is expected to fall, with a certain level of confidence. It's a reflection of the plus or minus variance from the point estimate due to sampling variability.In this exercise, the margin of error (MOE) for a 95% confidence interval is calculated using:
  • \( MOE = Z \times SE \)
The Z-value for a 95% confidence level is 1.96, and from calculations, the SE (standard error) is approximately 0.0137.Thus, the margin of error is:
  • \( MOE = 1.96 \times 0.0137 \approx 0.0268 \)
So, the margin of error is approximately 2.68%, which translates to a 95% confidence that the proportion of corporations that would likely prefer nonsmoking candidates lies in the interval created by adding and subtracting the MOE from the point estimate.
Standard Error
Standard error (SE) represents the degree to which a sample statistic tends to vary from the actual population parameter. It provides insight into the reliability of the sample statistic—here, the sample proportion.In the exercise, the standard error of the sample proportion is computed with the formula:
  • \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \)
Given that \( \hat{p} = 0.25 \) and the sample size \( n = 1000 \):
  • \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.25 \times 0.75}{1000}} \approx 0.0137 \)
This small standard error indicates a low level of variability in the sample proportion estimate, enhancing our confidence in the results. The smaller the SE, the more precise the point estimate is seen to be, suggesting that the sample of 1000 corporations provides a good reflection of the entire population's sentiment.

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