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Sam computed a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) from a specific random sample of size \(n\). He claims that at the \(90 \%\) confidence level, his confidence interval contains \(\mu\). Is this claim correct? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Sam's claim is incorrect; confidence level is about the method's reliability, not a single interval's accuracy.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Confidence Intervals

A confidence interval provides a range of values that is believed to contain the true population parameter, in this case, the mean \( \mu\), based on sample data. A 90% confidence interval means that if we were to take many samples and build a confidence interval from each of them, we expect 90% of those intervals to contain the true population mean.
02

Interpret Sam's Claim

Sam claims that his specific confidence interval contains \( \mu\). However, a single confidence interval cannot guarantee that it contains the true mean. Instead, the confidence level (90% in this case) tells us the probability that the interval estimation process will produce intervals that capture the true mean over many samples.
03

Evaluate the Claim

Given that a confidence interval's confidence level suggests performance over repeated sampling, Sam's claim is not entirely correct. While the process is 90% reliable in terms of containing \( \mu\) across numerous samples, it does not assure that this particular interval, based on a single sample, contains \( \mu\).
04

Conclusion

Sam should understand that while his confidence interval was constructed to be a 90% confidence interval, there is no certainty that this specific interval contains \( \mu\). The confidence level applies to the method, not the specific interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Level
A confidence level is a key part of statistical inference and helps us understand how confident we can be in our interval estimates. When we say that we have a 90% confidence level, we mean that we expect the method of constructing intervals to capture the true population parameter, in this case, the mean \( \mu \), 90 out of 100 times if we were to take multiple random samples and construct intervals.
This does not mean that there's a 90% chance that \( \mu \) is in a particular interval from a single sample. Instead, the confidence level indicates the reliability of the process over many iterations of sampling and interval estimation. This is a common point of confusion, but it's crucial for interpreting confidence intervals accurately.
Population Parameter
A population parameter is a value that describes a characteristic of a population. In statistics, we often deal with parameters like the mean, median, or standard deviation. However, the true population parameter is often unknown.
The mean \( \mu \) is a commonly estimated population parameter, especially in contexts where we are talking about confidence intervals. Our aim in estimating \( \mu \) is to make inferences about the population based on a sample. Hence, the accuracy of our sample's representation of the population is vital to our estimation of the population parameter.
Accurate estimation of the population parameter allows us to construct a confidence interval that exhibits a high probability of containing the true parameter, given the process aligns with the stated confidence level. Understanding this distinction is essential for correctly interpreting statistical data.
Mean (\mu)
The mean, often represented as \( \mu \) for the population mean, is a measure that summarizes the central tendency of a set of values. It’s calculated by summing all the values in a dataset and then dividing by the number of values.
When working with data, \( \mu \) is an incredibly important parameter because it provides insights into the central location of the data distribution. In regards to confidence intervals, estimating \( \mu \) accurately is paramount because the confidence interval itself aims to bracket this true mean.
  • The true population mean is usually unknown and is estimated by the sample mean.
  • The sample mean is used, along with the standard deviation and sample size, to build the confidence interval.
Understanding \( \mu \) and its estimation is essential for constructing meaningful confidence intervals that reliably offer insights into the parameter.
Random Sample Size
The concept of random sample size is crucial because it influences the reliability and stability of our estimates, including the confidence intervals. A sample is usually a portion of the population selected to represent the entire group.
The size of the sample, denoted as \( n \), plays a vital role because:
  • Larger sample sizes generally yield more precise estimates of the population parameter because they tend to yield less variability.
  • In the context of confidence intervals, a larger sample size will often result in a narrower interval, indicating a more precise estimate of the population mean \( \mu \).
  • Randomness in selecting the sample ensures that every subset of the population has an equal chance of being selected, reducing bias and improving the accuracy of the estimation.
Considering these aspects, it is evident why \( n \) is an important factor in creating valid confidence intervals to make inferences about the population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

If a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of means \(\mu_{1}-\mu_{2}\) contains all negative values, what can we conclude about the relationship between \(\mu_{1}\) and \(\mu_{2}\) at the \(90 \%\) confidence level?

A random sample of 5222 permanent dwellings on the entire Navajo Indian Reservation showed that 1619 were traditional Navajo hogans (Navajo Architecture: Forms, History, Distributions, by Jett and Spencer, University of Arizona Press). (a) Let \(p\) be the proportion of all permanent dwellings on the entire Navajo Reservation that are traditional hogans. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\). Give a brief interpretation of the confidence interval. (c) Do you think that \(n p>5\) and \(n q>5\) are satisfied for this problem? Explain why this would be an important consideration.

Results of a poll of a random sample of 3003 American adults showed that \(20 \%\) do not know that caffeine contributes to dehydration. The poll was conducted for the Nutrition Information Center and had a margin of error of \(\pm 1.4 \%\). (a) Does the margin of error take into account any problems with the wording of the survey question, interviewer errors, bias from sequence of questions, and so forth? (b) What does the margin of error reflect?

The following data represent crime rates per 1000 population for a random sample of 46 Denver neighborhoods (Reference: The Piton Foundation, Denver, Colorado). $$ \begin{array}{lrrrrrr} 63.2 & 36.3 & 26.2 & 53.2 & 65.3 & 32.0 & 65.0 \\ 66.3 & 68.9 & 35.2 & 25.1 & 32.5 & 54.0 & 42.4 \\ 77.5 & 123.2 & 66.3 & 92.7 & 56.9 & 77.1 & 27.5 \\ 69.2 & 73.8 & 71.5 & 58.5 & 67.2 & 78.6 & 33.2 \\ 74.9 & 45.1 & 132.1 & 104.7 & 63.2 & 59.6 & 75.7 \\ 39.2 & 69.9 & 87.5 & 56.0 & 154.2 & 85.5 & 77.5 \\ 84.7 & 24.2 & 37.5 & 41.1 & & & \end{array} $$ (a) Use a calculator with mean and sample standard deviation keys to verify that \(\bar{x} \approx 64.2\) and \(s \approx 27.9\) crimes per 1000 population. (b) Let us say the preceding data are representative of the population crime rates in Denver neighborhoods. Compute an \(80 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\), the population mean crime rate for all Denver neighborhoods. (c) Suppose you are advising the police department about police patrol assignments. One neighborhood has a crime rate of 57 crimes per 1000 population. Do you think that this rate is below the average population crime rate and that fewer patrols could safely be assigned to this neighborhood? Use the confidence interval to justify your answer. (d) Another neighborhood has a crime rate of 75 crimes per 1000 population. Does this crime rate seem to be higher than the population average? Would you recommend assigning more patrols to this neighborhood? Use the confidence interval to justify your answer. (e) Repeat parts (b), (c), and (d) for a \(95 \%\) confidence interval. (f) In previous problems, we assumed the \(x\) distribution was normal or approximately normal. Do we need to make such an assumption in this problem? Why or why not? Hint: See the central limit theorem in Section \(7.2\).

How hot is the air in the top (crown) of a hot air balloon? Information from Ballooning: The Complete Guide to Riding the Winds, by Wirth and Young (Random House), claims that the air in the crown should be an average of \(100^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\) for a balloon to be in a state of equilibrium. However, the temperature does not need to be exactly \(100^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\). What is a reasonable and safe range of temperatures? This range may vary with the size and (decorative) shape of the balloon. All balloons have a temperature gauge in the crown. Suppose that 56 readings (for a balloon in equilibrium) gave a mean temperature of \(\bar{x}=97^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\). For this balloon, \(\sigma \approx 17^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\). (a) Compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the average temperature at which this balloon will be in a steady-state equilibrium. (b) If the average temperature in the crown of the balloon goes above the high end of your confidence interval, do you expect that the balloon will go up or down? Explain.

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