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The New York Times did a special report on polling that was carried in papers across the nation. The article pointed out how readily the results of a survey can be manipulated. Some features that can influence the results of a poll include the following: the number of possible responses, the phrasing of the question, the sampling techniques used (voluntary response or sample designed to be representative), the fact that words may mean different things to different people, the questions that precede the question of interest, and finally, the fact that respondents can offer opinions on issues they know nothing about. (a) Consider the expression "over the last few years." Do you think that this expression means the same time span to everyone? What would be a more precise phrase? (b) Consider this question: "Do you think fines for running stop signs should be doubled?" Do you think the response would be different if the question "Have you ever run a stop sign?" preceded the question about fines? (c) Consider this question: "Do you watch too much television?" What do you think the responses would be if the only responses possible were yes or no? What do you think the responses would be if the possible responses were rarely, sometimes, or frequently?

Step by step solution

01

Evaluate Expression Clarity

Part (a) asks about the expression "over the last few years". This expression is vague because different individuals may interpret the time span differently. Some might think it implies 2-3 years, while others might interpret it as a longer period like 5-10 years. A more precise phrase could be "in the past 2 years" or "since 2020," specifying exact dates or durations to minimize misunderstanding.

02

Analyze Order of Questions

Part (b) asks how phrasing and order of questions might affect responses. If the question "Have you ever run a stop sign?" is asked before "Do you think fines for running stop signs should be doubled?", respondents may feel guilty or defensive if they have run a stop sign, potentially influencing them to support harsher penalties. The order and phrasing of questions can manipulate the emotional and psychological state of respondents, skewing the results.

03

Examine Impact of Response Options

Part (c) considers how provided response options affect survey results. If the options are limited to "yes" or "no," respondents may feel forced to choose an extreme answer. However, if the options include "rarely," "sometimes," or "frequently," respondents can convey more nuanced feelings about their television watching habits. This approach allows for a more accurate representation of behaviors and opinions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Poll Manipulation

Poll manipulation occurs when the results of a survey are intentionally or unintentionally skewed. This can happen through various means such as the wording of questions, the order of questions, or even the demographic chosen for the sample. For instance, a poll that asks leading questions on purpose can push participants toward a certain answer, unreflective of their true opinions.
Additionally, reporting only selected parts of the data can also present a misleading picture. It's crucial for those conducting polls to be transparent about their methodology to maintain credibility. This includes being upfront about who was sampled and how questions were structured.

Question Phrasing

Phrasing questions carefully is fundamental in avoiding misleading responses. The way a question is worded can heavily influence the answer given. For example, a question like "Do you watch too much television?" implies judgment, which might make respondents feel defensive and skew their answers.
It's better to phrase questions neutrally. Using clear and precise language prevents misunderstandings. For instance, instead of saying "over the last few years," specifying a time frame such as "in the past two years" can yield more accurate responses. Always ensure questions are unbiased and understood universally by the audience.

Response Bias

Response bias occurs when respondents' answers are influenced by factors other than their actual beliefs or behaviors. This can happen if respondents feel pressured to give socially acceptable answers or when they interpret a question differently than intended due to ambiguous wording.
One way to eliminate response bias is by including varied response options. A binary choice, such as "yes" or "no," might not capture the true sentiment of the audience. Providing options like "rarely," "sometimes," or "frequently" allows for more nuanced answers, reducing bias and leading to more accurate data.

Sampling Techniques

The sampling technique chosen can dramatically impact the results of a survey. Random sampling, where each member of a population has an equal chance of being selected, is ideal for generating representative and reliable data. However, this is often not feasible.
Alternative methods, such as stratified sampling, which divides the population into subgroups and samples from each, or voluntary response sampling, where participants choose to take part, are commonly used. However, the latter often leads to biased results, as people with strong opinions are more likely to participate.
Critically assessing the sampling technique is essential to understanding the validity and reliability of a poll's outcomes.