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In Exercises 1-2, the numbers that each pointer can land on and their respective probabilities are shown. Compute the expected value for the number on which each pointer lands. $$ \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \text { Outcome } & \text { Probability } \\ \hline 1 & \frac{1}{2} \\ \hline 2 & \frac{1}{4} \\ \hline 3 & \frac{1}{4} \\ \hline \end{array} $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected value for the number on which the pointer lands is 1.75.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the outcomes and their probabilities

You are given a list of outcomes (1, 2, 3) and their corresponding probabilities (\(\frac{1}{2}\), \(\frac{1}{4}\), \(\frac{1}{4}\)).
02

Multiply each outcome by its probability

The expected value is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its corresponding probability. This results in the following:\n\ \(1 \times \frac{1}{2}\) = \(\frac{1}{2}\)\n\ \(2 \times \frac{1}{4}\) = \(\frac{1}{2}\)\n\ \(3 \times \frac{1}{4}\) = \(\frac{3}{4}\)\n
03

Sum up the results

To find the total expected value, add up the results from step 2:\n\ \(\frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{2} + \frac{3}{4} = 1.75\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with the analysis of random events. The foundation of probability theory is the probability space, which consists of a set of possible outcomes, each with an associated probability that quantifies the chance of that outcome occurring.

When we perform an experiment like spinning a pointer, as mentioned in the original exercise, the possible outcomes are the numbers on which the pointer can land, and the corresponding probabilities are based on the probability space designed for that particular scenario.

Understanding the basic principles of probability such as events, outcomes, and associated probabilities, allows us to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and apply these concepts to solve practical problems – like computing the expected value.
Mathematical Expectation
The mathematical expectation, also known as the expected value, is the weighted average of all possible outcomes of a random variable, with the weights being their respective probabilities. This concept is incredibly useful in various fields such as economics, finance, and decision theory because it offers a single value that summarizes the distribution of outcomes.

The calculation of the expected value, as demonstrated in the step by step solution, involves multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and then summing up all these products. The result is a measure of the 'central tendency' or the 'long-run average' of the random variable after many repetitions of the experiment.

While the actual outcome of a random event may vary, the expected value provides a stable point of reference — like a forecast of what one can predict on average over time.
Discrete Random Variables
Discrete random variables are quantities that arise from random processes and have distinct and separate values. This is opposed to continuous random variables, which can take on any value within a range. In the context of the pointer example from the exercise, the numbers on which the pointer lands represent discrete outcomes because the pointer can only land on whole numbers like 1, 2, or 3, and nothing in between.

Each discrete outcome has a probability associated with it, which is a fundamental notion of discrete random variables. When we talk about the expected value of a discrete random variable, we're essentially asking: given all possible outcomes and their probabilities, what is the average outcome we would expect from an experiment if we were to repeat it an infinite number of times? It provides a way to predict outcomes of processes that are inherently uncertain and can be highly beneficial for making decisions based on statistical evidence.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The tables in Exercises 3-4 show claims and their probabilities for an insurance company. a. Calculate the expected value and describe what this means in practical terms. b. How much should the company charge as an average premium so that it breaks even on its claim costs? c. How much should the company charge to make a profit of \(\$ 50\) per policy? PROBABILITIES FOR HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE CLAIMS $$ \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { Amount of Claim (to the } \\ \text { nearest } \$ 50,000) \end{array} & \text { Probability } \\ \hline \$ 0 & 0.65 \\ \hline \$ 50,000 & 0.20 \\ \hline \$ 100,000 & 0.10 \\ \hline \$ 150,000 & 0.03 \\ \hline \$ 200,000 & 0.01 \\ \hline \$ 250,000 & 0.01 \\ \hline \end{array} $$

The probability that South Florida will be hit by a major hurricane (category 4 or 5 ) in any single year is \(\frac{1}{16}\). (Source: National Hurricane Center) a. What is the probability that South Florida will be hit by a major hurricane two years in a row? b. What is the probability that South Florida will be hit by a major hurricane in three consecutive years? c. What is the probability that South Florida will not be hit by a major hurricane in the next ten years? d. What is the probability that South Florida will be hit by a major hurricane at least once in the next ten years?

How do insurance companies use expected value to determine what to charge for a policy?

A single die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling an odd number or a number less than 4 .

One card is randomly selected from a deck of cards. Find the odds in favor of drawing a picture card.

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