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Binomial setting? A binomial distribution will be approximately correct as a model for one of these two settings and not for the other. Explain why by briefly discussing both settings. (a) When an opinion poll calls residential telephone numbers at random, only \(20 \%\) of the calls reach a person. You watch the random digit dialing machine make 15 calls. \(X\) is the number that reach a person. (b) When an opinion poll calls residential telephone numbers at random, only \(20 \%\) of the calls reach a live person. You watch the random digit dialing machine make calls. \(Y\) is the number of calls needed to reach a live person.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Setting (a) fits a binomial distribution; Setting (b) does not due to a lack of fixed trials.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Binomial Experiment Requirements

To determine if each scenario fits a binomial distribution, we need to check for four key requirements: 1) there are a fixed number of trials, 2) each trial is independent, 3) there are only two possible outcomes (success or failure), and 4) the probability of success is the same for every trial.
02

Analyze Setting (a)

Here, 15 calls are made (fixed number of trials), each call is independent, there are two outcomes (call reaches a person or not), and the probability of success (reaching a person) is constant at 20% for each call. Therefore, setting (a) satisfies all four binomial experiment requirements.
03

Analyze Setting (b)

In this setting, calls are made until a live person is reached. There isn't a fixed number of trials because the process stops only when success is achieved, making it a variable number of trials. This is characteristic of a geometric distribution, not a binomial distribution. Hence, setting (b) does not meet the fixed number of trials requirement for a binomial distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Experiment Requirements
A binomial experiment is a type of statistical experiment that follows four specific criteria, making it one of the foundational concepts of probability. Understanding these requirements is crucial for distinguishing between binomial and non-binomial scenarios.
  • **Fixed Number of Trials**: There must be a pre-determined, fixed number of trials or tests in the experiment. Each trial represents an opportunity for the event to occur.
  • **Independence**: Each trial must be independent, meaning the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of another.
  • **Two Possible Outcomes**: Every trial can only have two possible outcomes: success or failure. In many exercises, the success could be anything from hitting a target to reaching a person on a phone call.
  • **Constant Probability of Success**: The probability of success must remain the same in each trial. Whether it is reaching a person on a phone call or flipping a coin, the chance for success or failure shouldn't change as the experiment progresses.
By satisfying these four conditions, we can say that the experiment fits the criteria of a binomial distribution. Anytime these conditions are not met, we know that another type of distribution, like the geometric distribution, might be a better fit.
Geometric Distribution
While similar to binomial distributions, geometric distributions apply to different kinds of problems. They are useful for determining how many trials are needed to get the first success in a series of Bernoulli trials. Unlike the binomial distribution, there is no fixed number of trials in a geometric distribution.
With geometric distributions, we look for:
  • **Variable Number of Trials**: The trials continue until the first success is achieved.
  • **Constant Probability of Success**: Even though the number of trials isn't fixed, the probability of success remains the same for each trial. Thus, each trial is designed similarly, although the number of total trials varies.
Geometric distributions are a natural fit for questions involving the number of attempts until success events, for example, how many calls it takes to successfully reach a person. This makes them distinct from a binomial setting, where the number of trials is predetermined and finite.
Probability of Success
In both binomial and geometric distributions, the concept of "probability of success" is a common theme. It describes the chance that a single trial will result in success. Understanding this probability is essential for predicting outcomes in both distributions.
In a binomial experiment, each of the finite number of trials has the same probability of success, say, reaching someone via a phone call might have a probability of 20%. This consistency across trials is necessary to maintain the integrity of a binomial distribution.
For geometric distributions, the probability of success remains constant in each trial but affects how many trials may be necessary. Rather than specifying how many successes within a set trial number, geometric distribution calculates the probability based on reaching the first success over potentially numerous trials.
Understanding how this probability works helps to choose the right type of distribution for different probability problems.
Fixed Number of Trials
A clear distinction needs to be made regarding the fixed number of trials in an experiment. This is a critical aspect for binomial distributions. In setting (a) of our original problem, a fixed number of 15 calls meets this requirement.
The importance of a fixed number of trials is that it sets boundaries within which we examine our successes. Therefore, the total possible outcomes are defined, and we can calculate expectations and variances accurately.
However, in situations like setting (b), where calls are made until the first success (and hence, the number is not fixed), this requirement isn't satisfied, steering us towards a geometric distribution.
Hence, distinguishing whether a particular setup fits into a fixed or variable number of trials can determine if the situation applies to a binomial distribution or not. In this way, understanding each distribution's conditions aids in the proper analysis and application of statistical models.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Swim team Hanover High School has the best women's swimming team in the region. The 400 -meter freestyle relay team is undefeated this year. In the 400 -meter freestyle relay, each swimmer swims 100 meters. The times, in seconds, for the four swimmers this season are approximately Normally distributed with means and standard deviations as shown. Assume that the swimmer's individual times are independent. Find the probability that the total team time in the 400 -meter freestyle relay for a randomly selected race is less than 220 seconds. $$ \begin{array}{llc} \hline \text { Swimmer } & \text { Mean } & \text { Std. dev. } \\ \text { Wendy } & 55.2 & 2.8 \\ \text { Jill } & 58.0 & 3.0 \\ \text { Carmen } & 56.3 & 2.6 \\ \text { Latrice } & 54.7 & 2.7 \\ \hline \end{array} $$

Binomial setting? A binomial distribution will be approximately correct as a model for one of these two sports settings and not for the other. Explain why by briefly discussing both settings. (a) A National Football League kicker has made \(80 \%\) of his field goal attempts in the past. This season he attempts 20 field goals. The attempts differ widely in distance, angle, wind, and so on. (b) A National Basketball Association player has made \(80 \%\) of his free- throw attempts in the past. This season he takes 150 free throws. Basketball free throws are always attempted from 15 feet away with no interference from other players.

Fire insurance Suppose a homeowner spends \(\$ 300\) for a home insurance policy that will pay out \(\$ 200,000\) if the home is destroyed by fire. Let \(Y=\) the profit made by the company on a single policy. From previous data, the probability that a home in this area will be destroyed by fire is 0.0002 . (a) Make a table that shows the probability distribution of \(Y\) (b) Compute the expected value of Y. Explain what this result means for the insurance company.

Skee Ball Ana is a dedicated Skee Ball player (see photo) who always rolls for the 50 -point slot. The probability distribution of Ana's score \(X\) on a single roll of the ball is shown below. You can check that \(\mu_{X}=23.8\) and \(\sigma_{X}=12.63\) $$ \begin{array}{lccccc} \hline \text { Score: } & 10 & 20 & 30 & 40 & 50 \\ \text { Probability: } & 0.32 & 0.27 & 0.19 & 0.15 & 0.07 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) A player receives one ticket from the game for every 10 points scored. Make a graph of the probability distribution for the random variable \(T=\) number of tickets Ana gets on a randomly selected throw. Describe its shape. (b) Find and interpret \(\mu_{T}\). (c) Find and interpret \(\sigma_{T}\).

Working out Choose a person aged 19 to 25 years at random and ask, "In the past seven days, how many times did you go to an exercise or fitness center or work out?" Call the response \(Y\) for short. Based on a large sample survey, here is a probability model for the answer you will get: \({ }^{8}\) $$ \begin{array}{lcccccccc} \hline \text { Days: } & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 & 7 \\ \text { Probability: } & 0.68 & 0.05 & 0.07 & 0.08 & 0.05 & 0.04 & 0.01 & 0.02 \\\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) Show that this is a legitimate probability distribution. (b) Make a histogram of the probability distribution. Describe what you see. (c) Describe the event \(Y<7\) in words. What is \(P(Y<7) ?\) (d) Express the event "worked out at least once" in terms of \(Y\). What is the probability of this event?

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