/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 58 Will cash bonuses speed the retu... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

Will cash bonuses speed the return to work of unemployed people? A state department of labor notes that last year 68 % of people who filed claims for unemployment insurance found a new job within 15 weeks. As an experiment, this year the state offers 500 to people filing unemployment claims if they find a job within 15 weeks. The percent who do so increases to 77 %. What flaw in the design of this experiment makes it impossible to say whether the bonus really caused the increase? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The absence of a control group makes causation uncertain due to other possible influences.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Variables

First, identify the variables in the scenario: the independent variable is the cash bonus offered for finding a job within 15 weeks, and the dependent variable is the percentage of people who find jobs within that period.
02

Analyze Changes

Next, note the change observed: previously, 68% of people found jobs within 15 weeks. With the bonus incentive, this increased to 77%.
03

Consider Confounding Variables

Recognize potential confounding variables that may also influence job-finding rates, such as changes in the economy, labor market conditions, seasonal effects, or efforts from job-search agencies.
04

Evaluate Experimental Design

Visit the experimental design and acknowledge that without a control group (people not receiving the bonus during the same period), attributing the increase solely to the bonus is flawed. Other factors could also contribute to the increased percentage.
05

Conclude on Causation

Since the experiment lacks a control group and does not account for other potential influences, it cannot confidently conclude that the cash bonus directly caused the increased percentage of job findings.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Variable
In any experimental setup, the independent variable is the factor that is purposely changed or manipulated to observe its effect on other variables. In the given exercise about unemployment claims, the independent variable is clearly the cash bonus offered to individuals who find a job within 15 weeks.
This variable is considered 'independent' because it is under the experimenter's control.
The goal is to see if this change influences another variable, such as the rate at which people find jobs.
By providing a bonus, the hope is that the incentive would impact the job-finding behavior, making this bonus the main focus of observation. Keeping this distinction clear helps to design experiments effectively and observe the outcomes of manipulations.
Dependent Variable
The dependent variable in an experiment is the outcome that is measured to see if it is affected by changes in the independent variable. In our unemployment scenario, the dependent variable is the percentage of people who find jobs within the 15-week period.
This percentage is 'dependent' because it may vary in response to whether the cash bonus is offered.
Observations are made to track whether providing the bonus correlates with a higher percentage of job finding.
It's crucial to focus on how the dependent variable changes in response to the independent variable to draw meaningful conclusions from the experiment.
Experimental Design
An experimental design is a plan to systematically investigate hypotheses by manipulating at least one independent variable and measuring the dependent variable. In this exercise, the design has a significant flaw because it lacks a robust comparison.
For an experiment to be effective, other variables that might influence results should be held constant or be accounted for.
When evaluating the design, consider patterns or correlations and ensure they are not resulting from unknown factors.
In our scenario, the plan should have included precautions against external factors, such as improving the economy or changes in job availability, which can influence job-seeking success. Without these considerations, the reliability of concluding causal relationships diminishes.
Control Group
A control group is an essential element of experimental design, useful for isolating the effects of the independent variable. It consists of subjects who do not receive the experimental treatment or change.
Having a control group provides a baseline measure, helping to highlight any effects due to the independent variable more clearly.
  • In the unemployment experiment, a control group would involve individuals not being offered the cash bonus for comparison.
  • By comparing with this group, one could better infer if the increase to 77% is genuinely due to the bonus rather than extraneous factors.
  • Without such a group, it's difficult to attribute changes solely to the bonus, as seen in this case.
Incorporating a control group strengthens the design and supports more accurate conclusions.

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