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91Ó°ÊÓ

What proportion of students at your school use Twitter? To find out, you survey a simple random sample of students from the school roster. (a) Will your sample result be exactly the same as the true population proportion? Explain. (b) Which would be more likely to get your sample result closer to the true population value: an SRS of 50 students or an SRS of 100 students? Explain.

Short Answer

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(a) No, the sample result won't be exactly the true proportion due to sampling variability. (b) An SRS of 100 is more likely to be closer to the true population proportion.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Sample vs. Population Proportion

The true population proportion is the actual percentage of all students at the school who use Twitter. A sample proportion is an estimate based on a subset of the student population. Due to natural variability and randomness, the sample proportion will likely differ from the true population proportion unless the sample is extremely large or equal to the population size.
02

Sample Result vs. True Population Proportion

Since the sample is drawn randomly and size is limited, it's subject to sampling variability. This implies the sample result won't be exactly the same as the true population proportion due to the chance variation inherent in sampling. Thus, the sample proportion is an estimate which might be close but not necessarily identical to the true proportion.
03

Evaluating Sample Size Impact

Larger sample sizes generally provide more reliable estimates closer to the true population values because they reduce the margin of error. Therefore, an SRS of 100 students is likely to give a sample proportion closer to the true population proportion than an SRS of 50 students. This is because increasing the sample size decreases the impact of random sampling errors.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
In statistics, understanding the concept of population proportion is key to making informed decisions. The population proportion refers to the ratio or percentage of the entire population that has a specific characteristic. In the context of the exercise, it's the percentage of all students at the school who use Twitter. Knowing this proportion accurately allows researchers to gauge the spread of a trait or behavior across a given group.
A perfect understanding of population proportion in real life is challenging because it usually requires data from every individual in the group, which can be impractical or impossible. Hence, a sample is often used to estimate this proportion.
Simple Random Sample (SRS)
A Simple Random Sample (SRS) is a foundational technique in statistics used to draw unbiased samples from a larger population. In an SRS, each individual from the population has an equal chance of being selected. This method is essential because it minimizes selection bias, ensuring that the sample represents the population well.
Implementing an SRS in the exercise means randomly selecting students from the school roster. By doing so, we create a sample intended to reflect the school's overall Twitter usage habits. This randomness helps in achieving an even distribution across different groups within the population, which is crucial for reliable estimates. Using an SRS ensures that the findings from our sample are as close as possible to what we would find in the entire population.
Sampling Variability
Sampling variability refers to the natural differences that arise when multiple samples are drawn from the same population. It underscores that no two samples will yield identical results because each sample provides its unique snapshot of the population.
In the exercise, sampling variability is the reason why the proportion of Twitter users in our random sample might differ from the proportion in the entire student body. This phenomenon is inherent in the sampling process and is not a result of errors or mistakes. Addressing sampling variability involves understanding that while our sample provides an estimate, it is expected to differ somewhat from the true population proportion.
Sample Size Impact
Sample size plays a pivotal role in the accuracy of our estimates in statistics. A larger sample size generally results in a more precise estimate of the population proportion because it tends to reduce sampling variability.
In the exercise, choosing a larger sample of 100 students instead of 50 students increases the likelihood of the sample proportion being closer to the true population proportion. With more data points, the effect of random sampling errors diminishes, and the estimates become more stable. Therefore, whenever possible, increasing sample size is a key strategy in reducing margin of error and obtaining results that better reflect the actual population.

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