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Chapter 4: Problem 10

Online polls In June \(2008,\) Parade magazine posed the following question: "Should drivers be banned from using all cell phones?" Readers were encouraged to vote online at parade.com. The July 13 \(2008,\) issue of Parade reported the results: 2407 \((85 \%)\) said "Yes" and \(410(15 \%)\) said "No." obtain? (a) What type of sanple did the Pardde survey (b) Explain why this sampling method is biased. Is \(85 \%\) probably higher or lower than the true percent of all adults who believe that cell phone use while driving should be banned? Why?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The survey used a voluntary response sample, which is biased. The 85% is probably higher than the true percentage.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Sampling Method

The Parade survey asked readers to visit their website and cast their vote about banning drivers from using cell phones. This type of sampling is called a "voluntary response sample" because participants choose themselves whether or not to respond.
02

Recognize Bias in Voluntary Response Sampling

Voluntary response samples are often biased because people with strong opinions, especially negative ones, are more likely to participate in these kinds of surveys. This can lead to results that are not representative of the general population's opinions.
03

Analyze the Potential for Bias in Results

Given that the sampling method is biased, it's likely that the reported result of 85% believing cell phone use should be banned is higher than the true percentage. People who feel strongly that cell phone use should be banned are more likely to have voted than those who are ambivalent or in favor.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sampling Bias
Sampling bias occurs when the sample collected does not accurately reflect the larger population. In voluntary response samples, like the one used by Parade magazine, bias arises because responses are self-selected.
  • Participants volunteer to respond, often those with strong opinions.
  • This self-selection increases the likelihood of over-representing certain views.
For example, if a survey asked whether homework should be abolished and only students who dislike homework responded, the results would not reflect the opinion of the entire student body. This highlights how certain perspectives, especially those with strong feelings, can skew results, potentially leading to misleading conclusions.
Online Polls
Online polls are a popular contemporary survey method due to ease of dissemination and quick aggregation of responses. However, they come with significant challenges, particularly around sampling bias.
  • Accessibility: Only individuals with internet access can participate, excluding those without such access.
  • Audience Demographics: Often, the audience is not representative of the general population.
In Parade magazine's case, the poll was only accessible to readers who visited their website. This eliminates input from individuals who might read the magazine in print form only or from those not following the specific topic online.
This creates a narrow participant group, limiting the diversity of perspectives and possibly inflating certain response patterns.
Survey Methodology
Survey methodology refers to the techniques employed to gather and interpret survey data. A key aspect is ensuring the sample represents the broader population correctly.
  • Random Sampling: Selecting participants randomly to minimize bias and ensure broader representation.
  • Stratified Sampling: Dividing the population into subgroups and sampling each subgroup to reflect its proportion in the population.
In contrast, the voluntary response approach applied in the Parade survey does not follow these principles, which are vital for collecting unbiased data.
Alternative methods could provide more robust data, ensuring the results mirror the population more accurately, whether for topics like banning cell phone use while driving or any other social issue. Applying more rigorous survey methodologies can lead to a better understanding of public sentiment without the distortions introduced by sampling bias.

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