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Measurements on young children in Mumbai, India, found this least-squares line for predicting height \(y\) from \(\operatorname{arm} \operatorname{span} x:\) $$\hat{y}=6.4+0.93 x$$ Measurements are in centimeters \((\mathrm{cm})\). Suppose that a tall child with arm span \(120 \mathrm{~cm}\) and height \(118 \mathrm{~cm}\) was added to the sample used in this study. What effect will adding this child have on the correlation and the slope of the least-squares regression line? (a) Correlation will increase, slope will increase. (b) Correlation will increase, slope will stay the same. (c) Correlation will increase, slope will decrease. (d) Correlation will stay the same, slope will stay the same. (e) Correlation will stay the same, slope will increase.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(b) Correlation will increase, slope will stay the same.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the components of the least-squares line

The least-squares line equation is given by \( \hat{y} = 6.4 + 0.93x \) where \( \hat{y} \) is the predicted height, and \( x \) is the arm span. This equation indicates how height is expected to change with arm span.
02

Analyze the new data point

The new data point added to the sample has an arm span of \( 120 \) cm and a height of \( 118 \) cm. This child's height \( (118 \text{ cm}) \) is very close to their arm span \( (120 \text{ cm}) \), maintaining a similar relationship shown by the regression line.
03

Determine the effect on the correlation

Generally, a single data point that fits well with the existing trend of the data will strengthen the correlation. Since the point is close to the predicted values from the regression line, the correlation will likely increase.
04

Determine the effect on the slope of the least-squares line

Adding a point that follows the existing pattern typically doesn't change the slope much. As the student's height nearly matches the predicted height for that arm span, the slope should remain relatively stable. The slope of the least-squares line is unlikely to change significantly.
05

Conclude the effects on correlation and slope

Since the correlation is likely to increase without significantly altering the slope due to the alignment of the new point with the existing trend, the answer aligns with option (b): Correlation will increase, slope will stay the same.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Correlation
In statistics, correlation measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. In simpler terms, it tells us how closely two variables move together. The correlation coefficient is a value between -1 and 1, where:
  • A value close to 1 indicates a strong positive linear relationship.
  • A value close to -1 indicates a strong negative linear relationship.
  • A value close to 0 indicates little to no linear relationship.
Adding a point that fits well into the pattern can strengthen the correlation. In our exercise, introducing the data point of a child with an arm span of 120 cm and a height of 118 cm aligns well with the existing trend. Therefore, it likely enhances the correlation, making it a better fit to indicate a consistent linear relationship between arm span and height.
Slope
The slope in a regression line plays a crucial role as it represents the rate of change. Specifically, it shows how much the predicted variable (in this case, height) changes with a one-unit increase in the predictor variable (arm span). For our least-squares line equation \[ \hat{y} = 6.4 + 0.93x \] the slope of 0.93 means that for each additional centimeter of arm span, the predicted height increases by 0.93 cm.

When a new data point is added, it can influence the slope if it significantly deviates from the trend. However, in our case, the new point's proximity to the predicted value indicates a stable trend, likely leaving the slope unchanged. It implies that the existing rate of height increase per unit of arm span remains consistent.
Regression Line
A regression line in a scatter plot reflects the best fit through all the data points. Also known as the line of best fit, it aims to minimize the sum of the squares of the vertical distances of the points from the line itself, hence the term "least-squares." This line predicts the dependent variable (height) based on the independent variable (arm span).

The equation \[ \hat{y} = 6.4 + 0.93x \] represents our regression line. Here, 6.4 is the y-intercept, indicating the expected height when the arm span is zero, although not practically meaningful in this context.

By adding a compatible data point, the line may adjust subtly but not drastically. It ensures the new point complements the existing linear relationship, maintaining its predictive precision.
Statistical Analysis
Statistical analysis involves collecting, reviewing, and interpreting data to make informed decisions. It utilizes various methods, with regression analysis being a crucial one for understanding relationships between variables.

In least-squares regression, statistical analysis determines how well our model predicts outcomes. By examining residuals (the differences between observed and predicted values), we assess model accuracy.

In our example, the addition of a consistent data point suggests robustness in our statistical model. It signifies that our regression equation remains valid, effectively capturing the relationship trends. Through such meticulous analysis, we determine the changes, if any, in our model's accuracy and efficacy, ensuring high reliability of predictions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

People with diabetes measure their fasting plasma glucose (FPG; measured in units of milligrams per milliliter) after fasting for at least 8 hours. Another measurement, made at regular medical checkups, is called HbA. This is roughly the percent of red blood cells that have a glucose molecule attached. It measures average exposure to glucose over a period of several months. The table below gives data on both \(\mathrm{HbA}\) and \(\mathrm{FPG}\) for 18 diabetics five months after they had completed a diabetes education class. $$\begin{array}{ccc|ccc}\hline \text { Subject } & \begin{array}{c}\text { HbA } \\\\\text { (\%) }\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}\text { FPG } \\\\\text { (mg/mL) } \end{array} & \text { Subject } & \begin{array}{c} \text { HbA } \\\\\text { (\%) }\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}\text { FPG } \\\\\text { (mg/mL) }\end{array} \\\1 & 6.1 & 141 & 10 & 8.7 & 172 \\\2 & 6.3 & 158 & 11 & 9.4 & 200 \\\3 & 6.4 & 112 & 12 & 10.4 & 271 \\\4 & 6.8 & 153 & 13 & 10.6 & 103 \\\5 & 7.0 & 134 & 14 & 10.7 & 172 \\\6 & 7.1 & 95 & 15 & 10.7 & 359 \\\7 & 7.5 & 96 & 16 & 11.2 & 145 \\\8 & 7.7 & 78 & 17 & 13.7 & 147 \\\9 & 7.9 & 148 & 18 & 19.3 & 255 \\\\\hline \end{array}$$ (a) Make a scatterplot with HbA as the explanatory variable. Describe what you see. (b) Subject 18 is an outlier in the \(x\) direction. What effect do you think this subject has on the correlation? What effect do you think this subject has on the equation of the least-squares regression line? Calculate the correlation and equation of the least-squares regression line with and without this subject to confirm your answer. (c) Subject 15 is an outlier in the \(y\) direction. What effect do you think this subject has on the correlation? What effect do you think this subject has on the equation of the least-squares regression line? Calculate the correlation and equation of the least-squares regression line with and without this subject to confirm your answer.

Each of the following statements contains an error. Explain what's wrong in each case. (a) "There is a high correlation between the gender of American workers and their income." (b) "We found a high correlation \((r=1.09)\) between students' ratings of faculty teaching and ratings made by other faculty members." (c) "The correlation between planting rate and yield of corn was found to be \(r=0.23\) bushel."

One of nature's patterns connects the percent of adult birds in a colony that return from the previous year and the number of new adults that join the colony. Here are data for 13 colonies of sparrowhawks: $$\begin{array}{lrrrrrrrrrrrrr}\hline \text { Percent return: } & 74 & 66 & 81 & 52 & 73 & 62 & 52 & 45 & 62 & 46 & 60 & 46 & 38 \\\\\text { New adults: } & 5 & 6 & 8 & 11 & 12 & 15 & 16 & 17 & 18 & 18 & 19 & 20 & 20 \\\\\hline\end{array}$$ Make a scatterplot by hand that shows how the number of new adults relates to the percent of retuming birds.

Measurements on young children in Mumbai, India, found this least-squares line for predicting height \(y\) from \(\operatorname{arm} \operatorname{span} x:\) $$\hat{y}=6.4+0.93 x$$ Measurements are in centimeters \((\mathrm{cm})\). Suppose that the measurements of arm span and height were converted from centimeters to meters by dividing each measurement by \(100 .\) How will this conversion affect the values of \(r^{2}\) and \(s ?\) (a) \(r^{2}\) will increase, \(s\) will increase. (b) \(r^{2}\) will increase, \(s\) will stay the same. (c) \(r^{2}\) will increase, \(s\) will decrease. (d) \(r^{2}\) will stay the same, \(s\) will stay the same. (e) \(r^{2}\) will stay the same, \(s\) will decrease.

Metabolic rate, the rate at which the body consumes energy, is important in studies of weight gain, dieting, and exercise. We have data on the lean body mass and resting metabolic rate for 12 women who are subjects in a study of dieting. Lean body mass, given in kilograms, is a person's weight leaving out all fat. Metabolic rate is measured in calories burned per 24 hours. The researchers believe that lean body mass is an important influence on metabolic rate. $$\begin{array}{lccccccccc}\hline \text { Mass: } & 36.1 & 54.6 & 48.5 & 42.0 & 50.6 & 42.0 & 40.3 & 33.1 & 42.4 & 34.5 & 51.1 & 41.2 \\\\\text { Rate: } & 995 & 1425 & 1396 & 1418 & 1502 & 1256 & 1189 & 913 & 1124 & 1052 & 1347 & 1204 \\\\\hline\end{array}$$ (a) Use your calculator to help sketch a scatterplot to examine the researchers' belief. (b) Describe the direction, form, and strength of the relationship.

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