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91Ó°ÊÓ

In Exercises 69 to \(72,\) explain whether the given random variable has a binomial distribution. Long or short? Put the names of all the students in your class in a hat. Mix them up, and draw four names without looking. Let \(Y=\) the number whose last names have more than six letters.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The random variable does not have a binomial distribution.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Binomial Distribution

A random variable follows a binomial distribution if it satisfies four conditions: there are a fixed number of trials, each trial has two possible outcomes, the probability of success is the same for each trial, and the trials are independent.
02

Define the Random Variable

Here, the random variable is defined as the number of students whose last names have more than six letters, when four names are drawn from a hat.
03

Evaluating Fixed Number of Trials

The exercise involves drawing four names, which constitutes a fixed number of trials. In this case, there are exactly 4 trials.
04

Check for Two Possible Outcomes

For each student whose name is drawn, there are two possible outcomes: either their last name has more than six letters (success) or it does not (failure).
05

Consistent Probability of Success

In this context, the probability of drawing a name with a last name longer than six letters would change as each name is drawn unless the class roster is exceptionally large. However, with four draws from a typical class, the probability of success would likely change after each draw.
06

Assess Independence of Trials

Selection without replacement means the probability of drawing a name with a last name having more than six letters changes based on previous outcomes, making trials not independent in a small class.
07

Conclusion on Binomial Distribution

Since the selection of names is without replacement and the class size is not specified (typically much smaller than the number drawn), the probability changes, violating the condition of constant probability of success and independence. Thus, this does not form a binomial distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variables
Random variables are fundamental concepts in probability and statistics. Simply put, they are variables that can take on different values, each with an associated probability. In our exercise, the random variable is denoted by \( Y \), which represents the number of students whose last names have more than six letters from the names drawn. When you draw a name from a hat, \( Y \) can take various values, such as 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4, depending on the length of the last names you pick. The randomness stems from the uncertainty about which student's name will be drawn. Random variables can be either discrete or continuous. In this scenario, \( Y \) is discrete since it counts whole numbers (the number of successful draws) rather than measuring something that can take any value on an interval, like height or weight.
Probability
Probability is the measure of the likelihood that a given event will occur. In the context of our exercise, it refers to the chance that a drawn name will have a last name with more than six letters. Each name drawn has its own probability of this outcome, based on how many students in the class meet this criterion. The overall probability can be calculated using the formula for binomial probability if the conditions applied. However, since the probability changes as names are drawn, this setup does not exactly fit the requirements for a binomial distribution. In probability, having a consistent probability for each trial is critical when aiming to apply specific models like the binomial distribution.
Independent Trials
In probability theory, trials are independent if the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcomes of others. For example, when you roll a die, rolling a '3' does not change the chances of rolling a '5' next. In our given exercise, drawing names accepts the method of selection - without replacement. This method means once a name is drawn, it is not returned to the hat, impacting the likelihood of the following events. This lack of independence is a vital point that affects whether the situation adheres to a binomial distribution. For a binomial distribution, independence of trials is a key assumption, along with fixed probability and a fixed number of trials. If any condition fails, the distribution cannot be accurately described as binomial.
Probability of Success
The probability of success refers to the likelihood of a trial resulting in what is defined as a 'success'. In our context, a success means drawing a student whose last name exceeds six letters. Ideally, for a binomial distribution, this probability should remain constant through every trial. If we had a large class with many students, drawing a few names wouldn't significantly change the probability for each draw. However, in smaller classes, as soon as you start drawing names without replacement, the probabilities change because each name affects the pool of remaining options. This variation marks a deviation from the binomial distribution rules which require a stable probability of success across all trials to maintain the integrity of the model. Understanding this constraint is crucial when determining the suitability of using a binomial distribution.

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