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Cereal A company's single-serving cereal boxes advertise 9.63 ounces of cereal. In fact, the amount of cereal \(X\) in a randomly selected box follows a Normal distribution with a mean of 9.70 ounces and a standard deviation of 0.03 ounces. (a) Let \(Y=\) the excess amount of cereal beyond what's advertised in a randomly selected box, measured in grams \((1 \text { ounce }=28.35 \text { grams). Find the }\) mean and standard deviation of \(Y .\) (b) Find the probability of getting at least 3 grams more cereal than advertised.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Mean: 1.98 grams, SD: 0.85 grams. (b) Probability: 0.1151.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Variables

We need to understand that the amount of cereal in a box, denoted as \( X \), follows a Normal distribution with mean \( \mu = 9.70 \) ounces and standard deviation \( \sigma = 0.03 \) ounces. We define \( Y = X - 9.63 \), where \( 9.63 \) ounces converts to grams as \( 9.63 \times 28.35 \). The relationship \( Y = 28.35(X - 9.63) \) helps convert the ounces difference to grams.
02

Conversion and New Distribution of Y

Convert the constant of 9.63 ounces to grams, which gives \( 9.63 \times 28.35 = 272.4105 \) grams. The mean of \( X - 9.63 \) is the mean of \( X \) minus 9.63, which is \( 9.70 - 9.63 = 0.07 \) ounces. Converted to grams: \( 0.07 \times 28.35 \approx 1.98 \) grams. The standard deviation of \( Y \) is \( 0.03 \times 28.35 \approx 0.85 \) grams.
03

Calculating Probability

To find the probability that the excess \( Y \) is at least 3 grams more, meaning \( P(Y \geq 3) \), we calculate using the Normal distribution properties. We standardize \( Y \) to find \( Z \): \( Z = \frac{Y - \text{mean of } Y}{\text{standard deviation of } Y} = \frac{3 - 1.98}{0.85} \approx 1.20 \). We look up the cumulative probability for \( Z = 1.20 \) and subtract from 1: \( 1 - 0.8849 = 0.1151 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
Probability calculation in a normal distribution context involves determining the likelihood that a particular event happens. Here, our event is getting at least 3 grams more cereal than advertised. To calculate this, we use the property of the normal distribution that allows us to convert to a standardized form using the z-score.

In this specific case, we know the mean and standard deviation of our variable, Y. To find the probability that Y is greater than or equal to a certain value (3 grams in this case), we determine how many standard deviations away 3 grams is from the mean.

This is calculated using the formula for the z-score: \[ Z = \frac{Y - \text{mean of } Y}{\text{standard deviation of } Y} \]
Once the z-score is found, we can use standard statistical tables or software to find the cumulative probability for this z-score. In this scenario, the probability that Y is at least 3 grams more is found by subtracting the cumulative probability from 1, since we want the area from 3 grams to infinity.
Mean and Standard Deviation
The mean and standard deviation are core components in understanding any normal distribution. The mean provides the central value around which the data is distributed, while the standard deviation gives us an idea of the spread, or how much variation there is from the mean.

For variable X, which measures the amount of cereal in a box, we start with a mean ( \(\mu\) ) of 9.70 ounces and a standard deviation ( \(\sigma\) ) of 0.03 ounces. When transforming this to variable Y, which represents the excess cereal measured in grams rather than ounces, we adjust these parameters accordingly.

The new mean for Y is the difference between the mean of X and 9.63 ounces, converted to grams: \[ (9.70 - 9.63) \times 28.35 = 1.98 \text{ grams} \]
Similarly, the standard deviation of Y is obtained by converting 0.03 ounces to grams, resulting in: \[ (0.03 \times 28.35) = 0.85 \text{ grams} \]
These conversions are vital as they allow us to calculate probabilities in terms of grams, aligning with the problem's requirements.
Conversion from Ounces to Grams
Converting measurements from ounces to grams is crucial when dealing with problems requiring different units. In this exercise, every 1 ounce is equivalent to 28.35 grams.

This conversion is necessary because we are interpreting the results in terms of grams, which often provides a more precise metric for mass measurement. To convert ounces to grams, you simply multiply the ounces by 28.35.

For example, when calculating the excess cereal beyond the advertised amount of 9.63 ounces, you first convert 9.63 ounces into grams: \[ 9.63 \times 28.35 = 272.4105 \text{ grams} \]
This conversion ensures all subsequent computations, such as finding the mean or standard deviation of the excess, Y, align with the grams measurement. Precise conversions are crucial in maintaining accuracy throughout probability calculations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Multiple choice: Select the best answer for Exercises 65 and \(66,\) which refer to the following setting. The number of calories in a one-ounce serving of a certain breakfast cereal is a random variable with mean 110 and standard deviation \(10 .\) The number of calories in a cup of whole milk is a random variable with mean 140 and standard deviation 12. For breakfast, you eat one ounce of the cereal with 1\(/ 2\) cup of whole milk. Let T be the random variable that represents the total number of calories in this breakfast. The mean of T is (a) 110 (b) 140 (c) 180 (d) 195 (e) 250

A deck of cards contains 52 cards, of which 4 are aces. You are offered the following wager: Draw one card at random from the deck. You win \(\$ 10\) if the card drawn is an ace. Otherwise, you lose \(\$ 1 .\) If you make this wager very many times, what will be the mean amount you win? (a) About \(-\$ 1\) , because you will lose most of the time. (b) About \(\$ 9,\) because you win \(\$ 10\) but lose only \(\$ 1\) . (c) About \(-\$ 0.15 ;\) that is, on average you lose about 15 cents. (d) About \(\$ 0.77 ;\) that is, on average you win about 77 cents. (e) About \(\$ 0,\) because the random draw gives you a fair bet.

Exercises 103 and 104 refer to the following setting. Each entry in a table of random digits like Table D has probability 0.1 of being a \(0,\) and digits are independent of each other. The mean number of 0s in a line 40 digits long is (a) 10. (b) 4. (c) 3.098. (d) 0.4. (e) 0.1.

Suppose a homeowner spends \(\$ 300\) for a home insurance policy that will pay out \(\$ 200,000\) if the home is destroyed by fire. Let \(Y=\) the profit made by the company on a single policy. From previous data, the probability that a home in this area will be destroyed by fire is 0.0002 . (a) Make a table that shows the probability distribution of Y. (b) Compute the expected value of Y. Explain what this result means for the insurance company.

In government data, a houschold consists of all occupants of a dwelling unit, while a family consists of two or more persons who live together and are related by blood or marriage. So all families form households, but some households are not families. Here are the distributions of household size and family size in the United States: Number of Persons 1 2345 6 7 Household probability 0.25 0.32 0.17 0.15 0.07 0.03 0.01 Family probability 0 0.42 0.23 0.21 0.09 0.03 0.02 Let \(X=\) the number of people in a randomly selected U.S. household and \(Y=\) the number of people in a randomly chosen U.S. family. (a) Make histograms suitable for comparing the probability distributions of \(X\) and \(Y .\) Describe any differences that you observe. (b) Find the mean for each random variable. Explain why this difference makes sense. (c) Find the standard deviations of both \(X\) and \(Y .\) Explain why this difference makes sense.

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