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Exercises 33 to 35 refer to the following setting. A basketball player makes 47% of her shots from the field during the season. You want to estimate the probability that the player makes 5 or more of 10 shots. You simulate 10 shots 25 times and get the following numbers of hits: 5754153434534463417455657 What is your estimate of the probability? (a) 5/25, or 0.20 (b) 11/25, or 0.44 (c) 12/25, or 0.48 (d) 16/25, or 0.64 (e) 19/25, or 0.76

Short Answer

Expert verified
The estimated probability is (b) 11/25 or 0.44.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We are tasked with estimating the probability that a basketball player makes 5 or more shots out of 10 attempts, based on 25 simulations of 10 shots. The problem provides us with the results of these simulations as a sequence of numbers representing the number of successful shots out of 10.
02

Interpret Simulation Results

The given numbers 5754153434534463417455657 indicate the number of shots made in each of the 25 simulations. Our job is to count how many times the player made 5 or more shots in these simulations.
03

Count Successful Outcomes

We need to count the instances in the given sequence where the number of successful shots is 5 or more. The sequence provided is: 5, 7, 5, 4, 1, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 3, 4, 1, 7, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 7. Successes (5 or more) are found 11 times.
04

Calculate Probability Estimate

Since there are 25 simulations and 11 of these resulted in 5 or more successful shots, the empirical probability estimate is calculated as the ratio of successful outcomes to the total number of simulations: \( \frac{11}{25} \).
05

Match with Given Options

From the calculated probability of \( \frac{11}{25} \) or 0.44, we compare this with the provided options. Option (b) matches our result: 11/25 or 0.44.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

simulation
Simulation is a powerful technique used to mimic real-world processes or systems. It allows us to conduct experiments that are otherwise impractical in real life. In the context of the basketball exercise, simulation helps us understand how often a player might succeed in making a certain number of successful shots. This involves creating a model to replicate the scenario in question. When we simulate 10 basketball shots 25 times, as in the exercise, we effectively create multiple possible outcomes that could occur. Each simulation run represents a scenario where the player attempts to score, mimicking actual gameplay.
  • Simulations in probability provide a practical way to estimate outcomes.
  • They work by repeating a process repeatedly to gauge its behavior.
  • They're particularly useful when direct experimentation is costly or impractical.
By repeating the shooting scenario 25 times, simulations afford us a statistical basis to estimate probabilities, simulating the random nature of basketball shots.
empirical probability
Empirical probability is derived from actual experiments, observations, or simulations. It's a form of relative frequency probability. Unlike theoretical probability, which is based on known outcomes and predefined assumptions, empirical probability is grounded in actual data collected.In our basketball scenario, empirical probability refers to the chance of making 5 or more successful shots in a series of 10, as simulated 25 times. To find this, you count how often the event of interest occurs and divide by the total number of attempted trials.
  • Here, the number of times the player made 5 or more shots was 11 out of 25 simulations.
  • The empirical probability is then calculated as: \( \frac{11}{25} \) = 0.44 or 44%.
  • This value provides a practical estimate of the likelihood that could be expected in real shoots.
Empirical probability is valuable as it utilizes observed occurrences to make educated predictions or estimates.
basketball statistics
Basketball statistics are numerical achievements that present information about a player's or team's performance in the sport. They include data points like shooting percentages, points scored, and defensive plays, among others. For a player with a 47% shooting success rate, statistical analysis can provide deeper insights into their skill level and likely outcomes in a game. In this exercise, the player's shooting percentage becomes a crucial point of calculation.
  • Basketball statistics help coaches and analysts evaluate player performance over time.
  • Shooting percentage, like 47% here, can help assess consistency and efficiency.
  • Using these stats, players can identify areas to improve and track progress over a season.
Understanding these statistics helps fans, players, and analysts alike piece together an overall picture of the game, providing context to player decisions and strategies during play.
binomial distribution
Binomial distribution is a probability distribution that summarizes the likelihood of achieving a specific number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, each with two possible outcomes. In our basketball scenario, each shot is considered a trial with two outcomes: a successful shot or a miss. Thus, the scenario fits nicely with the binomial distribution, where the probability of a successful shot is 47%, or 0.47.
  • Each shot is an independent trial, meaning the outcome of one shot does not affect another.
  • The probability of success on each trial is constant, here being 0.47.
  • The binomial distribution can help predict the probability of making 5 or more successful shots in 10 attempts, similar to our empirical estimation.
Understanding the binomial distribution equips one with the tools to assess scenarios involving dichotomies, like shot success versus failure in basketball, and make informed predictions based on statistical probabilities.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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