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The same article that claims that the correlation between changes in stock prices in Europe and the United States is \(0.8\) goes on to say: "Crudely, that means that movements on Wall Street can explain \(80 \%\) of price movements in Europe." a. Is this true? b. What is the correct percentage of price movements explained if \(r=0.8\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, 64% of the price movements are explained if \( r = 0.8 \).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Correlation

To determine the strength of the relationship between two variables, like stock prices in Europe and the U.S., correlation is used. A correlation of 0.8 suggests a strong positive linear relationship, but it does not directly translate to a percentage.
02

Calculating Coefficient of Determination

The percentage of variance explained by the relationship is determined by the coefficient of determination, denoted as \( r^2 \). It represents the proportion of the variance in one variable that is predictable from the other variable.
03

Computing \( r^2 \)

Given that the correlation \( r = 0.8 \), we calculate \( r^2 = (0.8)^2 = 0.64 \). This means that 0.64, or 64%, of the variance in European stock prices is explained by their relationship with U.S. stock prices.
04

Interpreting the Results

The claim that the correlation coefficient of 0.8 implies that 80% of price movements are explained is incorrect. The correct interpretation is that 64% of the movements in Europe's stock prices are explained by the movements on Wall Street.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Correlation
Correlation is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which two variables change together. It ranges from -1 to 1, where 1 means perfect positive correlation, 0 indicates no correlation, and -1 implies perfect negative correlation. When applied to stock prices, as in the case of European and U.S. stock markets, a correlation of 0.8 indicates a strong positive relationship. This means that when the U.S. stock prices rise, the European stock prices tend to rise as well, and vice versa.

However, it is crucial to understand that correlation does not imply causation. It merely points out that two variables move in tandem to some degree. In our exercise, while a correlation of 0.8 suggests a strong relationship, it doesn't mean that all fluctuations are directly related.
Stock Prices
Stock prices fluctuate based on a myriad of factors like company performance, economic indicators, and investor sentiment. The correlation between stock prices across different regions, such as Europe and the United States, often arises from shared economic environments and investor behaviors. This interconnectedness can lead to movements in one region influencing or reflecting movements in another.

For the scenario in question, while there is a notable correlation of 0.8 in price changes between the two, this relationship should be carefully interpreted. External factors such as global economic conditions and regional financial policies also play significant roles in shaping stock prices.
Variance
Variance measures how much a set of numbers differ from their average value. In the context of stock prices, it indicates the degree to which the prices deviate from the average over time. This measure is essential for investors to understand the volatility and risk associated with stock investments.

The coefficient of determination, denoted as \( r^2 \), takes the square of the correlation coefficient to find how much of the variance in one variable is explained by another. Using the correlation of 0.8 from the exercise, we compute \( r^2 = 0.64 \). This result indicates that 64% of the variance in European stock prices is explained by the U.S. stock prices.
Statistical Interpretation
Statistical interpretation involves deriving meaningful insights and conclusions from data, ensuring they are accurate and not misleading. In the exercise, the initial misunderstanding was that a correlation of 0.8 meant 80% of price movements were explained. However, the correct approach involves calculating \( r^2 \) to interpret the data.

This illustrates a vital lesson in statistical interpretation: distinguishing between correlation and explained variance is crucial. Knowing that 64% of movements in European stocks can be explained by their correlation with U.S. stocks provides a clearer, more accurate interpretation of the data. It emphasizes the importance of precise calculation in drawing valid conclusions from statistical relationships.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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