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The Medical College Admission Test. Almost all medical schools in the United States require students to take the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). To estimate the mean score \(\mu\) of those who took the MCAT on your campus, you will obtain the scores of an SRS of students. The scores follow a Normal distribution, and from published information, you know that the standard deviation of scores for all MCAT takers is 10.6. Suppose that (unknown to you) the mean score of those taking the MCAT on your campus is \(500.0\). a. If you choose one student at random, what is the probability that the student's score is between 495 and 505 ? b. You sample 25 students. What is the sampling distribution of their average score \(x\) ? c. What is the probability that the mean score of your sample is between 495 and 505 ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 0.3652; b. Normal, mean = 500, SD = 2.12; c. 0.9812.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to determine probabilities based on the known normal distribution characteristics of MCAT scores. We know the population mean \(\mu = 500\), the population standard deviation \(\sigma = 10.6\), and the sample size \(n = 25\).
02

Probability for a Single Student

For a single student, we need to find the probability that their score is between 495 and 505. Since the scores are normally distributed, we use the formula for a normal distribution. The probability can be found using the standard normal distribution (Z-distribution). Convert the scores to z-scores using the formula: \(z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}\). Calculate \(z\) for 495 and 505.
03

Calculate Z-Scores for Single Student

Calculate the z-score for 495: \(z = \frac{495 - 500}{10.6} = -0.4717\). Calculate the z-score for 505: \(z = \frac{505 - 500}{10.6} = 0.4717\).
04

Find Probabilities for Single Student

Using the z-table, find the probabilities corresponding to the z-scores \(-0.4717\) and \(0.4717\). The probability of a score less than 505 \(P(Z < 0.4717) = 0.6826\) and less than 495 \(P(Z < -0.4717) = 0.3174\). The probability that the score is between 495 and 505 is \(0.6826 - 0.3174 = 0.3652\).
05

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

For a sample of 25 students, the sampling distribution of the sample mean \(x\) will be normal with mean \(\mu = 500\) and standard deviation of \(\sigma_{x} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{10.6}{\sqrt{25}} = 2.12\).
06

Probability for Sample Mean

We need to find the probability that the sample mean is between 495 and 505. Convert these values to z-scores using \(z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma_{x}}\). Calculate \(z\) for 495 and 505.
07

Calculate Z-Scores for Sample Mean

Calculate the z-score for 495: \(z = \frac{495 - 500}{2.12} = -2.358\). Calculate the z-score for 505: \(z = \frac{505 - 500}{2.12} = 2.358\).
08

Find Probabilities for Sample Mean

Using the z-table, find the probabilities corresponding to the z-scores \(-2.358\) and \(2.358\). The probability of a mean less than 505 \(P(Z < 2.358) = 0.9906\) and less than 495 \(P(Z < -2.358) = 0.0094\). The probability that the sample mean is between 495 and 505 is \(0.9906 - 0.0094 = 0.9812\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is a crucial concept in statistics and plays a vital role in analyzing the MCAT scores in our exercise. A normal distribution is often referred to as a "bell curve" due to its shape. It is symmetric about the mean, indicating that data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far from the mean.
What makes the normal distribution so important is its prevalence in naturally occurring phenomena. It's characterized by two parameters: the mean (\(\mu\)) and the standard deviation (\(\sigma\)). In the context of our problem, the mean indicates the average MCAT score, while the standard deviation measures how spread out the scores are.
The central aspect of this distribution is that around 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% falls within two, and 99.7% falls within three standard deviations. This property is called the empirical rule and helps us understand probabilities related to the normal distribution in practical scenarios.
Z-Score Calculation
Z-score calculation is a tool that allows us to measure how far a data point is from the mean. It is expressed in terms of standard deviations. The formula to compute the z-score is:
  • \(z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}\)
Where \(x\)is the value for which we want to calculate the z-score, \(\mu\) is the mean, and \(\sigma\)is the standard deviation of the distribution.
Calculating the z-score transforms our data into a standard normal distribution (Z-distribution). This is a standardized distribution where the mean is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.
In this exercise, we compute the z-scores for MCAT scores of 495 and 505, to determine the likelihood of these scores occurring based on our known mean of 500 and standard deviation of 10.6. This helps us utilize standard statistical tables (z-tables) to determine probabilities.
Sampling Distribution
Sampling distribution is the probability distribution of a statistic obtained through a large number of samples drawn from a specific population. It helps us make inferences about the population mean when we only have sample data.
For our problem, we're interested in the sampling distribution of the sample mean. When dealing with sample means, the distribution has a mean equal to the population mean (\(\mu\)), and a standard deviation that is the population standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size (\(\sigma_{x} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\)).
This calculation helps to determine the probability of observing a certain sample mean. In this exercise, because we are sampling 25 students, the sample mean distribution will be centered at 500, but with a reduced standard deviation due to the number of samples taken. This reduction helps illustrate the Central Limit Theorem, which implies that even if the population distribution is not normal, the sampling distribution will be approximately normal as the sample size grows.
MCAT Statistics
MCAT statistics help understand how test scores are distributed and analyzed. The Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is a standardized, multiple-choice exam used by medical schools in the United States for admissions.
Understanding the statistical nature of these scores is crucial for both educational institutions and students, as they need to interpret the results accurately. Given the normal distribution of scores, measurements such as mean and standard deviation offer insights into expected performance levels.
In this scenario, we assessed MCAT scores from a specific campus. These analyses often involve hypotheses testing, confidence intervals, and probability estimation, providing pivotal information on how well students are typically performing compared to others. Recognizing these patterns can aid in focusing study efforts, evaluating institutional curriculum effectiveness, and even understanding broader test-taking trends.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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