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Genetics. According to genetic theory, the blossom color in the second generation of a certain cross of sweet peas should be red or white in a \(3: 1\) ratio. That is, each plant has probability \(3 / 4\) of having red blossoms, and the blossom colors of separate plants are independent. a. What is the probability that exactly three out of four of these plants have red blossoms? b. What is the mean number of red-blossomed plants when 60 plants of this type are grown from seeds? c. What is the probability of obtaining at least 45 redblossomed plants when 60 plants are grown from seeds? Use the Normal approximation. If your software allows, find the exact binomial probability and compare the two results.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.421875, b) 45, c) Normal approx: 0.5596, Exact binomial: 0.5821.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We have a problem involving blossom color genetics where the probability of a red blossom is \( \frac{3}{4} \). The problems ask us to find probabilities related to this scenario.
02

Part A: Probability for Exactly Three Red Blossoms

We are given 4 plants, each with a \( \frac{3}{4} \) probability of having red blossoms. Thus, we use the binomial probability formula where the number of trials \( n = 4 \), number of successes \( k = 3 \), and success probability \( p = \frac{3}{4} \). The binomial probability is calculated as follows: \[ P(X = 3) = \binom{4}{3} \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^3 \left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^{4-3} \]
03

Calculate Part A

Calculate \( \binom{4}{3} = 4 \) and find the probability \( P(X = 3) = 4 \times \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^3 \times \left(\frac{1}{4}\right) = 4 \times \frac{27}{64} \times \frac{1}{4} = \frac{27}{64} = 0.421875 \).
04

Part B: Mean Number of Red Blossomed Plants

The mean number of red blossomed plants when 60 seeds are grown is found using the formula \( \mu = n \times p \), where \( n = 60 \) and \( p = \frac{3}{4} \). This results in \( \mu = 60 \times \frac{3}{4} = 45 \).
05

Part C: Use Normal Approximation for Probability

For 60 plants, treat the red blossom count as a normal distribution since \( n \) is large, with mean \( \mu = 45 \) and variance \( \sigma^2 = n \times p \times (1-p) = 60 \times \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{4} = 11.25 \). Thus, \( \sigma = \sqrt{11.25} \approx 3.354 \). Calculate \( z \) for \( X \geq 45 \) using normal distribution: \[ z = \frac{45 - 45}{3.354} = 0 \].
06

Find Probability Using Normal Distribution for Part C

Convert the binomial probability to a normal approximation by using a continuity correction: \( P(X \geq 45) = P(X > 44.5) \). Then find \( z \) using \[ z = \frac{44.5 - 45}{3.354} = -0.149 \]. Use the standard normal table to find the probability for \( z = -0.149 \). The probability is approximately 0.5596.
07

Check Part C Using Exact Binomial Probability

Use software or a calculator to find the exact binomial probability \( P(X \geq 45) \). Comparing results, the exact probability is around 0.5821, which is close to the approximated probability from the normal distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It is used when there are exactly two mutually exclusive outcomes of a trial, commonly referred to as "success" and "failure". In our sweet pea example, a "success" is a red blossom, and a "failure" is a white blossom. The probability of success in a single trial is denoted as \( p \), and in this case, \( p = \frac{3}{4} \). The probability of failure is \( 1 - p \).For multiple trials, the binomial distribution allows us to calculate probabilities for different numbers of successes. If we want to know the likelihood of exactly three out of four plants having red blossoms, we use the binomial formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] Here, \( n \) is the number of trials, \( k \) is the number of successes, and \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient.This formula shows how to distribute probabilities across different numbers of successes based on the probability of each trial.
Normal Approximation
When dealing with large numbers of trials in a binomial distribution, it becomes practical to approximate the binomial distribution with a normal distribution. This is because calculating exact binomial probabilities for large \( n \) can be cumbersome. The criterion typically used here is that the sample size \( n \) must be large enough, usually when both \( np \) and \( n(1-p) \) are greater than 5.For our sweet pea problem with \( n = 60 \), this condition is satisfied. The mean \( \mu \) of this normal distribution will be the same as the mean of the binomial distribution, calculated as \( \mu = np = 45 \). The variance \( \sigma^2 \) is given by \( np(1-p) = 11.25 \).When using the normal approximation, we often employ a continuity correction. Due to the nature of a normal distribution, we must adjust our calculations slightly to reflect the discrete nature of the data. Thus, to find the probability of at least 45 plants having red blossoms, we calculate the probability for \( X > 44.5 \) instead.
Genetic Theory
Genetic theory helps us predict the likelihood of inheriting certain traits from parents through generations. In the exercise, Mendel's laws of inheritance are at play, particularly the law of independent assortment. This law suggests that each pair of alleles segregates independently of others during gamete formation, which is why the blossom color in these sweet peas conforms to a 3:1 ratio. In practical terms, this means each plant has a \( \frac{3}{4} \) probability of having red blossoms—a dominant trait, while having a \( \frac{1}{4} \) probability of having white blossoms, which is recessive. The independence in these events—since each plant's traits don't affect another's—lets us model the problem using a binomial distribution.Understanding genetic theory provides insights into how probability can model biological phenomena, allowing researchers to make predictions about genetic outcomes effectively.
Mean and Variance
The concepts of mean and variance are critical in understanding probability distributions, including genetic probabilities. In the context of binomial and normal distributions used to solve this problem:- **Mean**: In probability, mean is the expected outcome of an experiment. Symbolically, it is \( \mu \), and for binomial distributions, \( \mu = np \). Mean shows us the average number of successes we expect, like 45 red blossoms in our example.- **Variance**: This measures the spread of the distribution, symbolized as \( \sigma^2 \). It quantifies how much the results deviate from the mean. In a binomial context, variance is given by \( np(1-p) \).Together, the mean and variance help to describe the shape of the distribution. The larger the variance, the more spread out a distribution is. In genetic and other applications, these metrics allow for assessments of risk and variability in observations.

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