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The Pew Research Centers Report entitled "How Americans value public libraries in their communities, " released December 11, 2013, asked a random sample of 6224 Americans aged 16 and over, "Have you used a Public Library website in the last 12 months?" In the entire sample, \(30 \%\) said Yes. But only \(17 \%\) of those in the sample over 65 years of age said Yes. Which of these two sample percents will be more accurate as an estimate of the truth about the population? (a) The result for those over 65 is more accurate because it is easier to estimate a proportion for a small group of people. (b) The result for the entire sample is more accurate because it comes from a larger sample. (c) Both are equally accurate because both come from the same sample.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(b) The result for the entire sample is more accurate because it comes from a larger sample.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Sample Sizes

The accuracy of a population estimate from a sample often depends on the sample size used to make that estimate. Generally, a larger sample size yields a more accurate estimate.
02

Comparing the Two Groups

The entire sample consists of 6224 individuals, whereas the group aged over 65 years is a subset of this larger group. Without information on how many were over 65, we can infer that it is a smaller group.
03

Evaluating Accuracy of Estimations

Since the proportion estimate (30%) comes from the entire sample of 6224, this estimate will be more accurate. The smaller subset (those over 65 years) has a smaller sample size despite having a different percentage (17%). Larger sample sizes provide more reliable estimates due to less variability.
04

Conclusion

The result for the entire sample (30%) is more accurate for estimating the population proportion because it is from a larger sample size. Smaller groups, like the over-65 subset, typically have higher variability in their estimates.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size
Sample size is a critical component of any statistical analysis. When we talk about a sample, we're referring to a subset of individuals from a larger population that we hope can give us insights into the entire group. The sample size, or the number of individuals included in this subset, greatly affects the reliability of our statistical estimates.

Larger sample sizes are typically more reliable because they capture more variation present in the population. This reduces the effect of outliers or anomalies that could otherwise skew results in smaller samples. To put it simply, the more data you have, the more confidence you can have in your estimates.

However, larger sample sizes also mean more resources are needed for data collection and analysis. Statisticians often seek a balance between accuracy and practicality by determining an optimal sample size using various techniques, including confidence intervals and margin of error.

In practice, if you're trying to understand a broad behavior or trend within a large population, targeting a relatively larger sample can give a closer reflection of reality. This principle is what underlies the conclusion that a larger sample provides a more accurate population estimate.
Population Estimate
A population estimate aims to deduce information about an entire population based on data gathered from a sample. Understanding the population estimate involves recognizing that we can't always question every individual in a population, especially if it's vast like the adult population of the United States.

When we estimate a population parameter, such as the proportion of people who use library websites, we use extrapolation from our sample data. The accuracy of this estimate primarily hinges on how well the sample represents the population. Factors such as random selection and adequate sample size play a pivotal role.

In the given exercise, the researchers surveyed 6224 Americans to conclude the population's library website usage. By assuming the sample was randomly selected and representative, the entire group's data provides a more dependable estimate compared to smaller, more homogeneous subgroups. This is because larger and more diverse samples better approximate the various nuances present across the entire population.
Sample Proportion Estimation
Sample proportion estimation involves using a sample to determine what proportion of a population exhibits a particular characteristic. In our example, estimating how many Americans use library websites is determined by the proportion of "Yes" responses among the people surveyed.

The process typically involves calculating the number of "positive" responses (i.e., those who said "Yes") and dividing it by the total sample size. In the exercise, 30% of the entire sample said they had used a library website, while 17% of those over 65 years did. This percentage, or proportion, provides a snapshot of behavior within the population.

However, the proportion from the larger sample (6224 people) is a sturdier estimate compared to the proportion from the subgroup (people over 65), which is likely smaller. When the sample size increases, the variability or standard error decreases, leading to confidence in the population estimate. This robustness affirms the importance of larger samples in ensuring reliable and valid statistical conclusions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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More on Random Digit Dialing. In the second half of 2014 , about \(44 \%\) of adults lived in households with a cell phone and no landline phone. Among adults aged \(25-29\), this percent was about \(70 \%\), while among adults over 65 , the percent was only \(17 \% 19\) (a) Write a survey question for which the opinions of adults with landline phones only are likely to differ from the opinions of adults with cell phones only. Give the direction of the difference of opinion. (b) For the survey question in part (a), suppose a survey was conducted using random digit dialing of landline phones only. Would the results be biased? What would be the direction of bias? (c) Most surveys now supplement the landline sample contacted by RDD with a second sample of respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The landline respondents are weighted to take account of household size and number of telephone lines into the residence, whereas the cell phone respondents are weighted according to whether they were reachable only by cell phone or also by landline. Explain why it is important to include both a landline sample and a cell phone sample. Why is the number of telephone lines into the residence important? (Hint: How does the number of telephone lines into the resudence affect the chance of the household being included in the RDD sample?)

Your own bad questions. Write your own examples of bad sample survey questions. (a) Write a biased question designed to get one answer rather than another- (b) Write the "same question" in two different ways to get different responses. (c) Write a question to which many people may not give truthful answers.

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