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Monsoon Rains. The summer monsoon rains in India follow approximately a Normal distribution with mean 852 millimeters \((\mathrm{mm})\) of rainfall and standard deviation \(82 \mathrm{~mm}\). (a) In the drought year \(1987,697 \mathrm{~mm}\) of rain fell. In what percent of all years will India have \(697 \mathrm{~mm}\) or less of monsoon rain? (b) "Normal rainfall" means within \(20 \%\) of the long-term average, or between \(682 \mathrm{~mm}\) and \(1022 \mathrm{~mm}\). In what percent of all years is the rainfall normal?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 2.94% of years have \\leq 697 mm rainfall. (b) 96.34% of years have normal rainfall.

Step by step solution

01

Translate the Problem

First, we need to understand what is being asked. For part (a), we need to find the probability that the rainfall is less than or equal to 697 mm. For part (b), we calculate the probability of the rainfall being between 682 mm and 1022 mm.
02

Calculate Z-score for Part (a)

Use the Z-score formula to find the Z-score for 697 mm:\[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]Where \( X = 697 \text{ mm} \), \( \mu = 852 \text{ mm} \), and \( \sigma = 82 \text{ mm} \):\[ Z = \frac{697 - 852}{82} \approx -1.8902 \]
03

Find Cumulative Probability for Part (a)

Consult a Z-table or a standard normal distribution calculator to find the cumulative probability for \( Z = -1.8902 \). This gives us the percentage of years with rainfall less than or equal to 697 mm. The cumulative probability is approximately 0.0294 or 2.94%.
04

Calculate Z-scores for Part (b)

Now, find the Z-scores for the rainfall range of 682 mm to 1022 mm:For 682 mm:\[ Z = \frac{682 - 852}{82} \approx -2.0732 \]For 1022 mm:\[ Z = \frac{1022 - 852}{82} \approx 2.0732 \]
05

Find Cumulative Probabilities for Part (b)

Using a Z-table or calculator, find cumulative probabilities:- Probability for \( Z = 2.0732 \) is approximately 0.9817.- Probability for \( Z = -2.0732 \) is approximately 0.0183.
06

Calculate Probability Range for Part (b)

The probability that the rainfall is between 682 mm and 1022 mm is the difference between the cumulative probabilities:\[ P(682 < X < 1022) = P(Z < 2.0732) - P(Z < -2.0732) \]\[ = 0.9817 - 0.0183 = 0.9634 \]Thus, 96.34% of all years have normal rainfall.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z-score calculation
The Z-score is a key concept in statistics that measures how far a data point is from the mean, relative to the standard deviation. It tells us how many standard deviations away a point is from the average value. To calculate the Z-score, use the formula: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]where:
  • \(X\) is the data point we are interested in.
  • \(\mu\) is the mean of the data set.
  • \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
In our exercise, we calculated the Z-score for 697 mm of rainfall. Here is how we found it:
  • Mean (\(\mu\)) = 852 mm
  • Standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) = 82 mm
  • Data point (\(X\)) = 697 mm
Thus, \[ Z = \frac{697 - 852}{82} \approx -1.8902 \]This tells us that 697 mm is approximately 1.89 standard deviations below the mean.
Cumulative probability
Cumulative probability refers to the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value. In the context of a normal distribution, it helps us understand the percentage of data points falling below a particular Z-score.Once we have the Z-score, we can use a Z-table or normal distribution calculator to find the cumulative probability. In the exercise, we found the cumulative probability for a Z-score of -1.8902:- The cumulative probability for \( Z = -1.8902 \) is approximately 0.0294.This means that in approximately 2.94% of all years, the rainfall in India is 697 mm or less. By finding cumulative probabilities, we can understand the likelihood of values within a distribution range.
Standard deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of data values. It's a critical component when dealing with normal distribution, as it determines how spread out the values are around the mean. To think about it simply:
  • A smaller standard deviation means that the values are closer to the mean.
  • A larger standard deviation indicates more spread out values.
In our problem, the standard deviation of the rainfall is 82 mm, which gives us insight into the variability of the monsoon rains. For example, knowing this helps in calculating the Z-scores, which are then used to find probabilities in the normal distribution.
Probability range
Finding the probability range of a variable means determining the probability of the variable falling between two values within a distribution. This is significant when wanting to identify, for example, what constitutes 'normal' conditions.In the exercise, normal rainfall is defined as between 682 mm and 1022 mm. The probabilities at each bound were calculated using their respective Z-scores:- For 682 mm, the Z-score was \(-2.0732\) with a cumulative probability of approximately 0.0183.- For 1022 mm, the Z-score was \(+2.0732\) with a cumulative probability of approximately 0.9817.The range probability is the difference between these cumulative probabilities:\[ P(682 < X < 1022) = 0.9817 - 0.0183 = 0.9634 \]Thus, in this scenario, there is a 96.34% chance that the rainfall will be considered normal. This helps understand the likelihood of rainfall falling within certain bounds in any given year.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Men's and Women's Heights. The heights of women aged \(20-29\) in the United States are approximately Normal with mean \(64.2\) inches and standard deviation \(2.8\) inches. Men the same age have mean height \(69.4\) inches with standard deviation \(3.0\) inches. \({ }^{6}\) What are the \(z\)-scores for a woman \(5.5\) feet tall and a man \(5.5\) feet tall? Say in simple language what information the \(z\)-scores give that the original nonstandardized heights do not.

The proportion of observations from a standard Normal distribution that take values between 1 and 2 is about (a) \(0.025\). (b) \(0.135 .\) (c) \(0.160\).

Fruit flies. The common fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster is the most studied organism in genetic research because it is small, is easy to grow, and reproduces rapidly. The length of the thorax (where the wings and legs attach) in a population of male fruit flies is approximately Normal with mean \(0.800\) millimeter (mm) and standard deviation \(0.078 \mathrm{~mm}\). (a) What proportion of flies have thorax length less than \(0.7 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? (b) What proportion have thorax length greater than \(1.0 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? (c) What proportion have thorax length between \(0.7 \mathrm{~mm}\) and \(1.0 \mathrm{~mm}\) ?

Upper Arm Lengths. The upper arm length of males over 20 years old in the United States is approximately Normal with mean \(39.1\) centimeters \((\mathrm{cm})\) and standard deviation \(2.3 \mathrm{~cm}\). Use the 68-95-99.7 rule to answer the following questions. (Start by making a sketch like Figure 3.10.) (a) What range of lengths covers the middle \(99.7 \%\) of this distribution? (b) What percent of men over 20 have upper arm lengths greater than \(41.4 \mathrm{~cm}\) ?

The scores of adults on an IQ test are approximately Normal with mean 100 and standard deviation 15. Alysha scores 135 on such a test. She scores higher than what percent of all adults? (a) About \(5 \%\) (b) About \(95 \%\) (c) About \(99 \%\)

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