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A 95\% confidence interval for the population slope \(\beta\) is (a) \(1.2186 \pm 424.4836\). (b) \(1.2186 \pm 0.2905\). (c) \(1.2186 \pm 0.1446\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The correct confidence interval is (c) \(1.2186 \pm 0.1446\).

Step by step solution

01

Understand Confidence Interval

A confidence interval for the population slope \( \beta \) is expressed as \( \hat{\beta} \pm ME \), where \( \hat{\beta} \) is the estimate of the slope, and \( ME \) is the margin of error. Here, three options present a slope along with a margin of error.
02

Analyze each Option

For each option, we need to see if the format matches \( \hat{\beta} \pm ME \). We have: (a) \(1.2186 \pm 424.4836\), (b) \(1.2186 \pm 0.2905\), and (c) \(1.2186 \pm 0.1446\).
03

Select the Appropriate Option

A typical confidence interval for a linear regression slope is small and does not span over hundreds unless the scale requires it. Options (b) and (c) seem reasonable compared to option (a), which has very high uncertainty.
04

Final Selection

Option (b) has a larger margin of error compared to (c), which might be more consistent with a wider interval. Since the question doesn't provide further data details, selecting the smaller, more precise margin of error as in (c) fits a more typical analysis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Slope
The population slope, often denoted by \( \beta \), represents the true relationship between an independent variable (predictor) and a dependent variable in a population. It is a key component in statistical models, especially in simple linear regression, which is used to predict outcomes.
The slope tells us how much the dependent variable changes, on average, when the independent variable increases by one unit. For example, if you were measuring the relationship between hours studied and test scores, a positive slope would suggest that more hours studied lead to higher test scores. A negative slope would indicate the opposite relationship.
In the context of a confidence interval for the population slope, the aim is to estimate this unknown value \( \beta \) with a range of plausible values calculated from the sample data. This range helps statisticians and researchers understand the potential variability around the estimated effect of the predictor.
Margin of Error
When constructing a confidence interval for the population slope, the margin of error (ME) is crucial. It adds (and subtracts) value to our estimated slope to form an interval that is likely to contain the true population slope \( \beta \).
The margin of error accounts for the variability or uncertainty associated with a sample estimate, reflecting how much the slope could reasonably vary. A smaller margin of error indicates more precise estimates, generally due to larger sample sizes or less variability in the data. Conversely, a larger margin of error suggests more uncertainty, potentially making the confidence interval broader.
In the exercise, options presented different margins of error (e.g., \(0.2905\) and \(0.1446\)). Choosing the margin of error impacts the width of the confidence interval. The narrower the interval (like option (c)), the more precise, yet possibly riskier the estimate, since there's less room for variability. A wider interval (like option (b)) provides more assurance that it includes the population slope, but at the cost of precision.
Linear Regression Analysis
Linear regression analysis is a foundational statistical technique used to understand the relationship between two variables. It essentially fits a line to the data points, which can then be used for prediction or to infer relationships.
In simpler terms, linear regression tries to find the best-fitting line through a scatter plot of data. This "line of best fit" summarizes the data using the equation \( y = \beta x + c \), where \( y \) is the dependent variable, \( x \) is the independent variable, \( \beta \) is the slope, and \( c \) is the y-intercept.
Conducting a linear regression analysis involves calculating the slope, which indicates the direction and strength of the relationship. A confidence interval is often calculated for the slope to address the uncertainty inherent in any statistical estimation. It provides a range within which we expect the true slope to lie, giving researchers and analysts a measure of confidence in the obtained results. Throughout this process, the margin of error plays a pivotal role by adding context to how reliable the estimates are.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The slope \(\beta\) of the population regression line describes (a) the average selling price in a population of units when a unit's appraised value is 0 . (b) the average increase in selling price in a population of units when appraised value increases by \(\$ 1000\). (c) the exact increase in the selling price of an individual unit when its appraised value increases by \(\$ 1000\).

Exercise \(26.1\) gives data on wine consumption and the risk of breast cancer. Software tells us that the leastsquares slope is \(b=0.009012\) with standard error \(\mathrm{SE}_{b}=0.001112\). Because there are only four observations, the observed slope \(b\) may not be an accurate estimate of the population slope \(\beta\). Give a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(\beta\).

Exercise \(26.1\) gives data on daily wine consumption and the relative risk of breast cancer in women. Software tells us that the least-squares slope is \(b=0.009012\) with standard error \(\mathrm{SE}_{b}=\) \(0.001112 .\) (a) What is the \(t\) statistic for testing \(H_{0}: \beta=0\) ? (b) How many degrees of freedom does \(t\) have? Use Table \(C\) to approximate the \(P\)-value of \(t\) against the one-sided alternative \(H_{a}: \beta>0\). What do you conclude?

A strain of genetically engineered cotton, known as Bt cotton, is resistant to certain insects, which results in larger yields of cotton. Farmers in northern China have increased the number of acres planted in Bt cotton. Because Bt cotton is resistant to certain pests, farmers have also reduced their use of insecticide. Scientists in China were interested in the longterm effects of Bt cotton cultivation and decreased insecticide use on insect populations that are not affected by Bt cotton. One such insect is the mirid bug. Scientists measured the number of mirid bugs per 100 plants and the proportion of Bt cotton planted at 38 locations in northern China for the 12 -year period from 1997-2008. The scientists reported a regression analysis as follows: \({ }^{8}\) number of mirid bugs per 100 plants $$ \begin{aligned} =0.54+6.81 & \times \mathrm{B} \text { t cotton planting proportionr } 2=0.90, \mathrm{P}<0.0001 \\ &=0.54+6.81 \times \text { Bt cotton planting proportion } \\ r^{2} &=0.90, \quad P<0.0001 \end{aligned} $$ (a) What does the slope \(b=6.81\) say about the relation between Bt cotton planting proportion and number of mirid bugs per 100 plants? (b) What does \(r^{2}=0.90\) add to the information given by the equation of the least-squares line? (c) What null and alternative hypotheses do you think the P-value refers to? What does this P-value tell you? (d) Does the large value of \(r^{2}\) and the small \(P\)-value indicate that increasing the proportion of acres planted in Bt cotton causes an increase in mirid bugs?

How sensitive to changes in water temperature are coral reefs? To find out, scientists examined data on mean sea surface temperatures (in degrees Celsius) and mean coral growth (in centimeters per year) over a severalyear period at locations in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. Here are the data for the Gulf of Mexico: 9 $$ \begin{array}{l|llllll} \hline \text { Mean sea surface temperature } & 26.7 & 26.6 & 26.6 & 26.5 & 26.3 & 26.1 \\ \hline \text { Growth } & 0.85 & 0.85 & 0.79 & 0.86 & 0.89 & 0.92 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) Do the data indicate that coral growth decreases linearly as mean sea surface temperature increases? Is this change statistically significant? (b) Use the data to predict with \(95 \%\) confidence the mean coral growth (centimeters per year) when mean sea surface temperature is \(26.4^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\).

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