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A 95\% confidence interval for the mean score on the creativity test for those subjects who did not cheat is (a) \(2.33 \pm 0.09\). (b) \(2.33 \pm 0.17\). (c) \(2.33 \pm 1.98\). (d) \(1.27 \pm 0.43\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The correct answer is (b) \(2.33 \pm 0.17\).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Confidence Intervals

A 95% confidence interval provides a range of values that will contain the true mean with 95% certainty. It is represented as \( \text{mean} \pm \text{margin of error} \). This means the lower bound of the interval is the mean minus the margin of error, and the upper bound is the mean plus the margin of error.
02

Analyze the Options

We are given four options for the confidence interval: (a) \(2.33 \pm 0.09\), (b) \(2.33 \pm 0.17\), (c) \(2.33 \pm 1.98\), and (d) \(1.27 \pm 0.43\). We need to calculate the intervals for these options to determine which is a reasonable confidence interval.
03

Calculate the Intervals

For option (a), the interval is \(2.33 - 0.09\) to \(2.33 + 0.09\), which is \([2.24, 2.42]\). For option (b), it is \([2.33 - 0.17, 2.33 + 0.17]\) = \([2.16, 2.50]\). Option (c) gives \([2.33 - 1.98, 2.33 + 1.98]\) = \([0.35, 4.31]\). Option (d) is \([1.27 - 0.43, 1.27 + 0.43]\) = \([0.84, 1.70]\).
04

Determine the Most Reasonable Interval

A 95% confidence interval should provide a range that is reasonable and within typical parameter boundaries. Options (a) and (b) have smaller ranges that are typical for confidence intervals, whereas option (c) is too broad, and option (d) has a different mean altogether.
05

Choose the Best Answer

Considering the context and interval sizes, option (b) with \( 2.33 \pm 0.17 \) provides a reasonable range for the mean score, suggesting it is likely the correct answer as it represents a typical 95% confidence interval width for sample size calculations commonly encountered in practice.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean Score
The mean score is a central value representing the average of all scores in a dataset. Imagine you took a creativity test and scored various points during multiple trials. To find the mean score, you would add up all these scores from your trials and then divide the total by the number of trials you completed.
The formula to calculate the mean score is given by:
  • Sum of all individual scores divided by the number of scores.
Mathematically, it is expressed as:\[\bar{x} = \frac{\sum x_i}{n}\]where \(\bar{x}\) is the mean, \(x_i\) is each individual score, and \(n\) is the number of scores. The mean score helps to summarize the overall performance of a group on a particular measurement. It serves as a useful point of comparison within data sets.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is the measure of uncertainty or precision around the mean score when making estimates from sample data. It indicates the extent to which the mean score might vary. In simpler terms, it tells us how much we can expect the true mean to fluctuate based on the sample data.
A smaller margin of error suggests a higher precision of the mean estimate, meaning the confidence interval will be narrower. Conversely, a larger margin of error implies less precision and a wider confidence interval. The margin of error is influenced by:
  • The level of confidence chosen (e.g., 95% confidence level).
  • The sample size (larger samples typically yield smaller margins of error).
  • The variability in the data.
If the margin of error is 0.17, like in the option (b) in the exercise, it means the true mean of the population can be expected to be within \(2.33 \pm 0.17\).
95% Confidence
A 95% confidence level in statistics indicates that if we were to take many repeated random samples from the same population, 95% of the confidence intervals calculated from those samples would contain the true population mean. It doesn't guarantee that the true mean lies within an interval but rather provides a level of certainty or reliability.
In a practical sense, choosing a 95% confidence level suggests you're fairly sure about the interval containing the true mean. This level is standard in many scientific studies, balancing a relatively high confidence level with a reasonable precision of estimates. The "95%" doesn't refer to the probability of a single interval containing the mean but rather reflects long-term properties across numerous samples. It’s like saying "if I repeated this test a hundred times, 95 of those intervals would contain the true mean."
Statistics Concepts
Statistics concepts such as mean, margin of error, and confidence intervals are fundamental in understanding data analysis. They help in making informed decisions based on sample data, extrapolating that information to wider populations.
Key statistical concepts include:
  • Descriptive statistics: These describe the main features of a data set, using measures such as mean, median, and mode.
  • Inferential statistics: These allow for conclusions about a population based on a sample data, extending insights from the sample to the larger group.
  • Probability: This assesses how likely an event is to occur, underpinning much of statistical thinking.
Confidence intervals, part of inferential statistics, help in understanding the range where the true statistic falls, considering sample variations. Overall, grasping these concepts aids in properly navigating data-driven decisions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A report of a survey distributed to randomly selected email addresses at a large university says: "We have collected 427 responses from our sample of 2,100 as of April 30, 2004. This number of responses is large enough to achieve a \(95 \%\) confidence interval with \(\pm 5 \%\) margin of sampling error in generalizing the results to our study population."13 Why would you be reluctant to trust a confidence interval based on these data?

Here's how butterflies mate: a male passes to a female a packet of sperm called a spermatophore. Females may mate several times. Will they remate sooner if the first spermatophore they receive is small? Among 20 females who received a large spermatophore (greater than 25 milligrams), the mean time to the next mating was \(5.15\) days, with standard deviation \(0.18\) day. For 21 females who received a small spermatophore (about 7 milligrams), the mean was \(4.33\) days and the standard deviation was \(0.31\) day. \({ }^{5}\) Is the observed difference in means statistically significant? Test using the conservative Option 2 for the degrees of freedom. The \(P\)-value is (a) less than \(0.01\). (b) between \(0.01\) and \(0.05\). (c) between \(0.05\) and \(0.10\). (d) greater than \(0.10\).

In Exercise 24.21, suppose we computed a large-sample 80\% confidence interval for the proportion of all American teens who own an MP3 player. This \(80 \%\) confidence interval (a) would have a smaller margin of error than the \(90 \%\) confidence interval. (b) would have a larger margin of error than the \(90 \%\) confidence interval. (c) could have either a smaller or a larger margin of error than the \(90 \%\) confidence interval. This varies from sample to sample.

You have data on rainwater collected at 16 locations in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State. One measurement is the acidity of the water, measured by \(\mathrm{pH}\) on a scale of 0 to 14 (the \(\mathrm{pH}\) of distilled water is \(7.0\) ). Estimate the average acidity of rainwater in the Adirondacks.

In 2006, the pharmaceutical company Merck released a vaccine named Gardasil for human papilloma virus, the most common cause of cervical cancer in young women. The Merck website gives results from "four placebo-controlled, double- blind, randomized clinical studies" with women 16 to 26 years of age, as follows: \({ }^{16}\) $$ \begin{array}{lrr|cc} \hline & n & \text { Cervical Cancer } & n & {\text { Genital Warts }} \\ \hline \text { Gardasil } & 8487 & 0 & 7897 & 1 \\ \text { Placebo } & 8460 & 32 & 7899 & 91 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) Give a 99\% confidence interval for the difference in the proportions of young women who develop cervical cancer with and without the vaccine. (b) Do the same for the proportions who develop genital warts. (c) What do you conclude about the overall effectiveness of the vaccine?

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