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Runners. In a study of exercise, a large group of male runners walk on a treadmill for six minutes. After this exercise, their heart rates vary with mean 8.8 beats per five seconds and standard deviation \(1.0\) beats per five seconds. This distribution takes only whole-number values, so it is certainly not Normal. (a) Let \(x^{-} \bar{x}\) be the mean number of beats per five seconds after measuring heart rate for 24 five-second intervals (two minutes). What is the approximate distribution of \(x^{-} x\) according to the central limit theorem? (b) What is the approximate probability that \(x^{-} x\) is less than 8 ? (c) What is the approximate probability that the heart rate of a runner is less than 100 beats per minute? (Hint: Restate this event in terms of \(x^{-}{ }^{3}\).)

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Normal with mean 8.8, SD 0.204. (b) Probability ≈ 0. (c) Probability ≈ 0.0107.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) states that the sampling distribution of the sample mean will be approximately normally distributed if the sample size is large enough (usually n > 30) regardless of the distribution of the population. In this problem, even though the individual heart rates are not normally distributed, the average rate over 24 intervals is approximately normal.
02

Calculating Distribution for Part (a)

For the mean number of beats, \(\bar{x}\), over 24 intervals (120 seconds in total), use CLT: The mean is \(\mu = 8.8\) and the standard error is \(\sigma = \frac{1.0}{\sqrt{24}}\approx 0.204\). Therefore, \(\bar{x}\) is approximately normally distributed with mean 8.8 and standard deviation 0.204.
03

Solving Part (b)

To find the probability that \(\bar{x}\) is less than 8, standardize the variable: \(Z = \frac{8 - 8.8}{0.204} = -3.92\). Using the standard normal distribution, \(P(Z < -3.92)\) is very close to zero (considering normal distribution tables or calculators).
04

Reinterpret Problem for Part (c)

Converting the heart rate of 100 beats per minute to 5-second intervals: 100 beats/min = 8.33 beats/5-seconds. Use this to find the probability \(\bar{x} < 8.33\).
05

Solving Part (c) Using Z-score

Standardize \(8.33\): \(Z = \frac{8.33 - 8.8}{0.204} = -2.30\). Using normal distribution tables, \(P(Z < -2.30)\) gives a probability of approximately 0.0107.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sampling Distribution
The sampling distribution is the probability distribution of a given statistic based on a random sample. In the context of our exercise, it refers to the distribution of the sample mean heart rates of male runners over several intervals. Although the initial data distribution of heart rates is not normal, the Central Limit Theorem allows us to conclude that the distribution of the sample mean becomes approximately normal when the sample size is large enough.

In our problem, we have 24 intervals, which is sufficiently large for the Central Limit Theorem to apply. Hence, the sampling distribution of the mean number of beats per five seconds can be considered as approximately normal. This assumption simplifies probability calculations and other statistical inferences about the data.
Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution that is symmetrical around its mean, often described as a bell curve. It's characterized by the parameters mean (\(\mu \)) and standard deviation (\(\sigma \)).

In our scenario, the sample mean heart rates follow a normal distribution because of the Central Limit Theorem. We use this normal approximation with mean \(\mu = 8.8\) beats per five seconds and a standard deviation, or standard error, calculated as \(\sigma = \frac{1.0}{\sqrt{24}} \approx 0.204\). This allows us to easily compute probabilities and make predictions about the runners' heart rates.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation measures the amount of variation or dispersion from the average or mean. In the context of this study, the standard deviation of heart rates within five seconds is given as 1.0. This value indicates the variability of single observations within the population.

When examining the sample mean from 24 intervals, the standard deviation is adjusted to what we call the standard error, which is smaller than the population standard deviation. The standard error is calculated by dividing the standard deviation by the square root of the sample size: \(\sigma = \frac{1.0}{\sqrt{24}} \approx 0.204\). This reduced value reflects the expected variability of the sample mean compared to individual observations.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation enables us to quantify how likely certain outcomes are given the distribution characteristics. In this problem, we use the properties of the normal distribution to find probabilities.

For example, to find the probability that the mean heart rate is less than 8 beats per five seconds, we compute the Z-score: \(Z = \frac{8 - 8.8}{0.204} = -3.92\). The Z-score helps us transform our random variable into a standard normal distribution for easy lookup in statistical tables or software.

The same approach is used for determining the probability of a heart rate being less than 100 beats per minute. Convert this rate to beats per five seconds (8.33 beats per five seconds) and compute the Z-score: \(Z = \frac{8.33 - 8.8}{0.204} = -2.30\). These Z-scores provide the tools to find the corresponding probabilities with ease, providing insight into the likelihood of observed outcomes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Generating a Sampling Distribution. Let's illustrate the idea of a sampling distribution in the case of a very small sample from a very small population. The population is the scores of 10 students on an exam: The parameter of interest is the mean score \(\mu\) in this population. The sample is an SRS of size \(n=4\) drawn from the population. The Simple Random Sample applet can be used to select simple random samples of four numbers between 1 and 10 , comesponding to the students. (a) Make a histogram of these 10 scores. (b) Find the mean of the 10 scores in the population. This is the population mean \(\mu-\) (c) Use the Simple Random Sample applet to draw an SRS of size 4 from this population. What are the four scores in your sample? What is their mean \(x^{-} \bar{x}\) ? This statistic is an estimate of \(\mu\). (If you prefer not to use applets, use Table \(B\) beginning at line 121 to chose an SRS of size 4 from this population.) (d) Repeat this process nine more times, using the applet (or Table B, continuing on line 121 , if you are not using applets). Make a histogram of the 10 values of \(x^{-} \bar{x}\). You are constructing the sampling distribution of \(x^{-} \bar{x}\). Is the center of your histogram close to \(\mu\) ? How does the shape of this histogram compare with the histogram you made in part (a)?

Scores on the Critical Reading part of the SAT exam in a recent year were roughly Normal with mean 495 and standard deviation 118. You choose an SRS of 100 students and average their SAT Critical Reading scores. If you do this many times, the standard deviation of the average scores you get will be close to (a) 118 . (b) \(118 / 100=1.18\). (c) \(118 / 100=11.8^{118 / \sqrt{100}}=11.8\)

What Does the Central Limit Theorem Say? Asked what the central limit theorem says, a student replies, "As you take larger and larger samples from a population, the histogram of the sample values looks more and more Nonal." Is the student right? Explain your answer.

Insurance. The idea of insurance is that we all face risks that are unlikely but carry high cost. Think of a fire or flood destroying your apartment. Insurance spreads the risk: we all pay a small amount, and the insurance policy pays a large amount to those few of us whose apartments are damaged. An insurance company looks at the records for millions of apartment owners and sees that the mean loss from apartment damage in a year is \(\mu=130\) per person. (Most of us have no loss, but a few lose most of their possessions. The \(\$ 130\) is the average loss.) The company plans to sell renter's insurance for \(\$ 130\) plus enough to cover its costs and profit. Explain clearly why it would be unwise to sell only 10 policies. Then explain why selling thousands of such policies is a safe business.

Sampling Distribution versus Population Distribution. The 2015 American Time Use Survey contains data on how many minutes of sleep per night each of 10,900 survey participants estimated they get. 3 The times follow the Normal distribution with mean \(529.9\) minutes and standard deviation \(135.6\) minutes. An SRS of 100 of the participants has a mean time of \(x^{-}=514.4 \bar{x}=514.4\) minutes. A second SRS of size 100 has mean \(x^{-}=539.3 r=539.3\) minutes. After many SRSs, the many values of the sample mean \(x^{-} x\) follow the Normal distribution with mean \(529.9\) minutes and standard deviation \(13.56\) minutes. (a) What is the population? What values does the population distribution describe? What is this distribution? (b) What values does the sampling distribution of \(x^{-} x\) describe? What is the sampling distribution?

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