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Friends. How many close friends do you have? Suppose that the number of close friends adults claim to have varies from person to person with mean \(\mu=9\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=2.5\). An opinion poll asks this question of an SRS of 1100 adults. We will see later, in Chapter 19, that in this situation the sample mean response \(x^{-} \bar{x}\) has approximately the Normal distribution with mean 9 and standard deviation \(0.075\). What is \(P\left(8.9 \leq x^{-} \leq 9.1\right)\), the probability that the sample result estimates the population truth \(\mu=9\) to within \(\pm 0.1\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is approximately 0.8164.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Mean and Standard Deviation

Identify the mean \( \mu \) and the standard deviation \( \sigma \) of the sample mean distribution. Here, \( \mu=9 \) and \( \sigma=0.075 \) since the opinion poll involves a sample mean based on an SRS (Simple Random Sample) of 1100 adults.
02

State the Problem within Range

We need to calculate the probability that the sample mean \( \bar{x} \) is within the range \( 8.9 \) to \( 9.1 \), i.e., \( P(8.9 \leq \bar{x} \leq 9.1) \).
03

Standardize the Values Using Z-score

For each boundary of the interval, calculate the Z-score using the formula: \(Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\), where \( X \) is each boundary value. First, for \( X=8.9 \), we get \( Z = \frac{8.9 - 9}{0.075} = -1.33 \). Then, for \( X=9.1 \), calculate \( Z = \frac{9.1 - 9}{0.075} = 1.33 \).
04

Use the Standard Normal Distribution Table

Look up these Z-scores ( \( -1.33 \) and \( 1.33 \) ) in the standard normal distribution table. The probability for \( Z = 1.33 \) is approximately \( 0.9082 \), and the probability for \( Z = -1.33 \) is approximately \( 0.0918 \).
05

Calculate the Probability

Find the probability \( P(8.9 \leq \bar{x} \leq 9.1) = P(Z\leq1.33) - P(Z\leq-1.33) \). Subtract these probabilities: \( 0.9082 - 0.0918 = 0.8164 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal distribution
The normal distribution, commonly known as the bell curve, is a probability distribution that is symmetric around its mean. Most values cluster around a central peak, and probabilities taper off equally on both sides of the mean. This distribution is defined by two parameters: the mean ( \( \mu \) ) and the standard deviation ( \( \sigma \) ). The mean provides the location or center of the distribution, while the standard deviation indicates the spread or width of the distribution.In many real-world scenarios, the normal distribution applies due to the Central Limit Theorem. This theorem states that as sample sizes increase, the sampling distribution of the sample mean will approach a normal distribution, regardless of the original population distribution. This property makes the normal distribution very powerful and useful for inferential statistics.
Sampling mean
In statistics, the sampling mean refers to the average value obtained from a sample. It is denoted as \( \bar{x} \) . When researchers collect data, they often work with a subset of the entire population due to constraints like time and cost. By computing the mean of this subset, they can make inferences about the population mean.A critical concept about the sampling mean is that if you take many samples from a population, the distribution of these sample means will tend to form a normal distribution. This occurs regardless of the shape of the population distribution, especially as the sample size grows larger. This forms the basis of the Central Limit Theorem.Moreover, the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample mean is equal to the population mean. For example, if the population mean of the number of close friends adults have is 9, then the mean of the sample means from multiple samples will also be 9.
Standard deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of data values. A low standard deviation indicates that data points tend to be close to the mean, while a high standard deviation indicates that data points are spread out over a wider range of values.In the context of the normal distribution, the standard deviation determines the width of the bell curve. For the problem at hand, the standard deviation of the sampling mean ( \( \sigma = 0.075 \) ) is derived from the population standard deviation, scaled by the sample size. This is because the standard deviation of the sampling distribution decreases as the sample size increases, highlighting that larger samples provide more reliable estimates.Knowing the standard deviation allows statisticians to understand how much sample means will vary from the actual population mean.
Z-score
A Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It is expressed in terms of standard deviations from the mean. The formula to calculate a Z-score for a data point ( \( X \) ) is: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]Where \( \mu \) is the mean and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation of the distribution.Z-scores can show how far away a data point is in relation to the standard deviation units. If a data point’s Z-score is 0, it indicates that the data point's score is identical to the mean. A positive Z-score indicates the data point is above the mean, while a negative Z-score signifies it's below the mean.In practical applications, Z-scores are used to determine the probability that a sample mean will fall within a certain range, as illustrated by calculating the Z-scores for 8.9 and 9.1 in our example.
Simple random sample
Simple Random Sample (SRS) is a fundamental sampling method in statistics. It ensures that each member of a population has an equal chance of being selected. By giving every individual an equal opportunity to be chosen, SRS minimizes bias and simplifies the data collection process. In the context of our exercise, an SRS was used to select 1100 adults to determine the number of close friends they claim to have. This method is crucial because it allows researchers to be confident that the sample accurately represents the population, leading to more reliable and valid conclusions. The properties of the SRS play a vital role in the Central Limit Theorem's mechanics, which hinge on random sampling ensuring the normal distribution of sample means.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Who gets interviewed? Abby, Deborah, Mei-Ling, Sam, and Roberto are students in a small seminar course. Their professor decides to choose two of them to interview about the course. To avoid unfairness, the choice will be made by drawing two names from a hat. (This is an SRS of size 2.) (a) Write down all possible choices of two of the five names. This is the sample space. (b) The random drawing makes all choices equally likely. What is the probability of each choice? (c) What is the probability that Mei-Ling is chosen? (d) Abby, Deborah, and Mei-Ling liked the course. Sam and Roberto did not like the course. What is the probability that both people selected liked the course?

How Many Cups of Coffee? Choose an adult age 18 or over in the Unaited States at random and ask, "How many cups of coffee do you drink on average per day?" Call the response \(X\) for short. Based on a large sample survey, here is a probability model for the answer you will get: \({ }^{7}\) \begin{tabular}{l|ccccc} \hline Number & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 or more \\ \hline Probability & \(0.36\) & \(0.26\) & \(0.19\) & \(0.08\) & \(0.11\) \\ \hline \end{tabular} (a) Verify that this is a valid finite probability model. (b) Describe the event \(X<4\) in words. What is \(P(X<4)\) ? (c) Express the event "have at least one cup of coffee on an average day" in terms of \(X\). What is the probability of this event?

Nickels falling over. You may feel that it is obvious that the probability of a head in tossing a coin is about \(1 / 2\) because the coin has two faces. Such opinions are not always correct. Stand a nickel on edge on a hard, flat surface. Pound the surface with your hand so that the nickel falls over. What is the probability that it falls with heads upward? Make at least 50 trials to estimate the probability of a head.

Running a Mile. A study of 12,000 able-bodied male students at the University of Illinois found that their times for the mile run were approximately Normal with mean \(7.11\) minutes and standard deviation \(0.74\) minute. \({ }^{11}\) Choose a student at random from this group and call his time for the mile \(Y\). (a) Is \(Y\) a finite or continuous random variable? Explain your answer. (b) Say in words what the meaning of \(P(Y \geq 3.0)\) is. What is this probability? (c) Write the event "the student could run a mile in less than 6 minutes" in terms of values of the random variable \(Y\). What is the probability of this event?

Survey accuracy. A sample survey contacted an SRS of 2854 registered voters shortly before the 2012 presidential election and asked respondents whom they planned to vote for. Election results show that \(51 \%\) of registered voters voted for Barack Obama. We will see later that in this situation the proportion of the sample who planned to vote for Barack Obama (call this proportion \(V\) ) has approximately the Normal distribution with mean \(\mu=0.51\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=0.009\). (a) If the respondents answer truthfully, what is \(P(0.49 \leq V \leq 0.53)\) ? This is the probability that the sample proportion \(V\) estimates the population proportion \(0.51\) within plus or minus \(0.02\). (b) In fact, \(49 \%\) of the respondents said they planned to vote for Barack Obama \((V=0.49)\). If respondents answer truthfully, what is \(P(V \leq 0.49)\) ?

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