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Birth order. A couple plans to have three children. There are eight possible arrangements of girls and boys. For example, GGB means the first two children are girls and the third child is a boy. All eight arrangements are (approximately) equally likely. (a) Write down all eight arrangements of the sexes of three children. What is the probability of any one of these arrangements? (b) Let \(X\) be the number of girls the couple has. What is the probability that \(X=2 ?\) (c) Starting from your work in part (a), find the distribution of \(X\). That is, what values \(\operatorname{can} X\) take, and what are the probabilities for each value?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 1/8, (b) 3/8, (c) X = 0 (1/8), 1 (3/8), 2 (3/8), 3 (1/8).

Step by step solution

01

Write Down All Possible Arrangements

There are three children, and each can be either a girl (G) or a boy (B). Thus, there are \(2^3 = 8\) possible arrangements. The possible arrangements are: GGG, GGB, GBG, BGG, BGB, BBG, BBB, BGG.
02

Calculate the Probability of One Arrangement

Since each arrangement is equally likely and there are 8 total arrangements, the probability of one specific arrangement occurring is \(\frac{1}{8}\).
03

Determine Probability for X = 2

If \(X\) is the number of girls, then \(X=2\) means there are exactly 2 girls and 1 boy in the arrangement. The arrangements meeting this condition are GGB, GBG, and BGG. So, there are 3 favorable outcomes.
04

Calculate Probability for X = 2

The probability of having exactly 2 girls is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes (3 arrangements out of 8), given by \(\frac{3}{8}\).
05

Find the Distribution of X

\(X\) can take on the values 0, 1, 2, or 3 (representing having 0, 1, 2, or 3 girls, respectively). - \(X=0\) (0 girls, all boys): BBB, probability \(\frac{1}{8}\).- \(X=1\) (1 girl): BGB, BBG, GBB, probability \(\frac{3}{8}\).- \(X=2\) (2 girls): GGB, GBG, BGG, probability \(\frac{3}{8}\).- \(X=3\) (3 girls, no boys): GGG, probability \(\frac{1}{8}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution relates to situations where we have a fixed number of trials, each with two possible outcomes. For example, flipping a coin or having a child can result in two outcomes: heads/tails or boy/girl. In the case of this exercise about a couple planning to have three children, we consider the trials as the birth of each child. Here, each child being born can either be a boy (B) or a girl (G).
In a scenario like this, the number of trials is three and for each child, there is an equal chance of being a boy or a girl, assumed here as independent events. The binomial distribution allows us to calculate the probability of getting a certain number of successes in these trials. A 'success' can differ based on perspective; in this exercise, a specific number of girls is considered a success depending on what you are interested in.
The exercise shows that when the outcome for each trial (birth) is independent and equally likely, then the probability distribution of the number of girls in three children follows a structure that can be described by the binomial distribution.
Random Variable
A random variable is a numerical outcome of a random phenomenon. In simple terms, it's a way to assign a number to the outcome of a random event. In this exercise, we define a random variable as the number of girls, denoted by \( X \).
When we talk about \( X \), it can take on several values based on what happens in reality. Since we can have three children, each resulting in either a boy or a girl, the random variable \( X \) can take on values 0, 1, 2, or 3.
These values represent having zero girls (all boys), one girl, two girls, or three girls (all girls), respectively. The purpose of using a random variable like \( X \) is to allow us to use mathematical methods to predict outcomes of such random processes and calculate their probabilities. This makes it easier to structure and simplify our analysis of the likelihood of various numbers of girls being born.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a field of mathematics that deals with counting, arrangement, and combination of objects. This concept is crucial when solving problems involving tasks like figuring out possible outcomes and their probabilities, just like in this exercise.
To determine how many ways the couple can have different numbers of boys and girls, we use combinatorics. We are interested in how to count or list out these possibilities based on the given situation — having three children, each of which can be a boy or a girl. The combination tells us there are \( 2^3 = 8 \) possible arrangements of the children because each child has two possibilities, and there are three children.
Combinatorics also helps in determining the number of ways to choose the exact number of girls or boys (like choosing 2 girls from 3 children), which is crucial in determining probabilities for each such condition. This step not only aids in calculating the probability but also strengthens the understanding of how these calculations work out in real-life probability problems.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

How Many Cups of Coffee? Choose an adult age 18 or over in the Unaited States at random and ask, "How many cups of coffee do you drink on average per day?" Call the response \(X\) for short. Based on a large sample survey, here is a probability model for the answer you will get: \({ }^{7}\) \begin{tabular}{l|ccccc} \hline Number & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 or more \\ \hline Probability & \(0.36\) & \(0.26\) & \(0.19\) & \(0.08\) & \(0.11\) \\ \hline \end{tabular} (a) Verify that this is a valid finite probability model. (b) Describe the event \(X<4\) in words. What is \(P(X<4)\) ? (c) Express the event "have at least one cup of coffee on an average day" in terms of \(X\). What is the probability of this event?

Probability Says... Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. Match one of the probabilities that follow with each statement of likelihood given. (The probability is usually a more exact measure of likelihood than is the verbal statement.) $$ \begin{array}{rrrrrrrr} 00.010 .450 .500 .550 .9910 & 0.01 & 0.45 & 0.50 & 0.55 & 0.99 & 1 \end{array} $$ (a) This event is impossible. It can never occur. (b) This event is certain. It will occur on every trial. (c) This event is very likely, but it will not occur once in a while in a long sequence of trials. (d) This event will occur slightly less often than not.

A taste test. A tea-drinking Canadian friend of yours claims to have a very refined palate. She tells you that she can tell if, in preparing a cup of tea, milk is first added to the cup and then hot tea poured into the cup, or the hot tea is first poured into the cup and then the milk is added. \({ }^{18}\) To test her claims, you prepare six cups of tea. Three have the milk added first and the other three the tea first. In a blind taste test, your friend tastes all six cups and is asked to identify the three that had the milk added first. (a) How many different ways are there to select three of the six cups? (Hint: See Example 12.8.) (b) If your friend is just guessing, what is the probability that she correctly identifies the three cups with the milk added first?

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