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Revealing information 886 randomly sampled teens were asked which of several personal items of information they thought it okay to share with someone they had just met. \(44 \%\) said it was okay to share their e-mail addresses, but only \(29 \%\) said they would give out their cell phone numbers. A researcher claims that a twoproportion \(z\) -test could tell whether there was a real difference among all teens. Explain why that test would not be appropriate for these data.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The two-proportion \( z \)-test is inappropriate because the proportions are from the same sample, violating the independence assumption.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

Identify the key elements: two proportions (email and cell phone), the sample size (886 teens), and the differences being suggested (44% for email, 29% for cell phone numbers). The question asks if a two-proportion \( z \)-test can tell if the difference is significant.
02

Analyzing the Two-Proportion z-Test Suitability

The two-proportion \( z \)-test is used to determine if there is a significant difference between the proportions of two groups in a population. It assumes that the samples are independent and randomly selected from the population and that the data meets the criteria for normality and sample size.
03

Evaluating the Appropriateness of the Test

In this scenario, both data points are proportions from the same group of respondents (the same sample of 886 teens). Because these proportions are obtained from one sample, they are not independent samples; thus, the assumptions for the two-proportion \( z \)-test are violated. The test requires that each proportion comes from separate and independent samples.
04

Conclusion

Since the assumptions of independent samples aren't met (as both proportions are from the same group), a two-proportion \( z \)-test is not appropriate. A matched pairs analysis or a different test considering paired data may be more suitable.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sampling Methods
Understanding sampling methods is crucial when conducting any statistical test. In this case, a sample of 886 teens was used to gather information about their willingness to share personal details. Sampling methods help ensure that the data represents the larger population. Common methods include simple random sampling, stratified sampling, and systematic sampling.
  • Simple Random Sampling: Every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected. This method helps eliminate bias.
  • Stratified Sampling: The population is divided into strata, or groups, with shared characteristics, and samples are taken from each group proportionally.
  • Systematic Sampling: Every nth individual is selected from the populated list. This method is easier to implement but assumes that the list's order is not linked to the variables being studied.
For the data in question, it is assumed that a random sampling method was used allowing general conclusions about the population of teens.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance quantifies whether the results observed in a study are due to chance or represent a true effect. In the context of a two-proportion z-test, it asks if the difference between the proportions of two groups is large enough to be unlikely due to random variation in the sample.
For instance, if 44% of teens are willing to share their email but only 29% their phone number, a statistical test can help determine if this gap is significant or just irregularity in the data. The two-proportion z-test computes a p-value, indicating the probability of observing such a difference if no real difference exists.
  • If the p-value is below the significance level (often 0.05), the result is statistically significant, suggesting a real difference between the groups.
  • If the p-value is larger, the observed difference may simply be due to random chance, not a genuine disparity.
Test Assumptions
Every statistical test, including the two-proportion z-test, relies on certain assumptions. Adhering to these assumptions ensures valid results. Key assumptions of the two-proportion z-test include:
  • Independence: The samples compared must be independent of each other. This means one group's outcome cannot affect the other's. In our scenario, both content types come from the same group, violating this assumption.
  • Normality: The test assumes that the sampling distribution of the differences in proportions is approximately normal, which is generally met if both groups have large enough sample sizes.
  • Randomness: The sample must be randomly selected to represent the broader population accurately.
Failure to meet these assumptions, particularly independence, renders the two-proportion z-test unsuitable for this data set.
Matched Pairs Analysis
When dealing with paired or related data, matched pairs analysis is often the more appropriate statistical technique. This analysis is used when data points in each sample are not independent, often because they are derived from the same individuals or matched groups.
For example, in our scenario, both email and cell phone number proportions are drawn from the same group of teens. Here, matched pairs analysis considers these elements as connected, acknowledging that the behavior of sharing an email and a phone number may be related within each individual.
  • By using matched pairs analysis, researchers can account for individual differences across the pairs, leading to more accurate and meaningful results.
  • This analysis might involve techniques such as calculating the difference between paired observations and determining if the average of these differences departs significantly from zero.
In this case, utilizing paired testing offers a methodologically sound approach given the shared participant group structuring.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

\- Online activity checks Are more parents checking up on their teen's online activities? A Pew survey in 2004 found that \(33 \%\) of 868 randomly sampled teens said that their parents checked to see what Web sites they visited. In 2006 the same question posed to 811 teens found \(41 \%\) reporting such checks. Do these results provide evidence that more parents are checking?

Buy it again? A consumer magazine plans to poll car owners to see if they are happy enough with their vehicles that they would purchase the same model again. They'll randomly select 450 owners of American-made cars and 450 owners of Japanese models. Obviously, the actual opinions of the entire population couldn't be known, but suppose \(76 \%\) of owners of American cars and \(78 \%\) of owners of Japanese cars would purchase another. a) What sampling design is the magazine planning to use? b) What difference would you expect their poll to show? c) Of course, sampling error means the poll won't reflect the difference perfectly. What's the standard deviation for the difference in the proportions? d) Sketch a sampling model for the difference in proportions that might appear in a poll like this. e) Could the magazine be misled by the poll, concluding that owners of American cars are much happier with their vehicles than owners of Japanese cars? Explain.

Shopping A survey of 430 randomly chosen adults found that \(21 \%\) of the 222 men and \(18 \%\) of the 208 women had purchased books online. a) Is there evidence that men are more likely than women to make online purchases of books? Test an appropriate hypothesis and state your conclusion in context. b) If your conclusion in fact proves to be wrong, did you make a Type I or Type II error? c) Estimate this difference with a confidence interval. d) Interpret your interval in context.

Gender gap A presidential candidate fears he has a problem with women voters. His campaign staff plans to run a poll to assess the situation. They'Il randomly sample 300 men and 300 women, asking if they have a favorable impression of the candidate. Obviously, the staff can't know this, but suppose the candidate has a positive image with \(59 \%\) of males but with only \(53 \%\) of females. a) What sampling design is his staff planning to use? b) What difference would you expect the poll to show? c) Of course, sampling error means the poll won't reflect the difference perfectly. What's the standard deviation for the difference in the proportions? d) Sketch a sampling model for the size difference in proportions of men and women with favorable impressions of this candidate that might appear in a poll like this. e) Could the campaign be misled by the poll, concluding that there really is no gender gap? Explain.

Origins In a 1993 Gallup poll, \(47 \%\) of the respondents agreed with the statement "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." When Gallup asked the same question in \(2008,\) only \(44 \%\) of those respondents agreed. Is it reasonable to conclude that there was a change in public opinion given that the P-value is 0.17? Explain.

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