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Suppose the probability that a U.S. resident has traveled to Canada is \(0.18,\) to Mexico is \(0.09,\) and to both countries is 0.04. What's the probability that an American chosen at random has a) traveled to Canada but not Mexico? b) traveled to either Canada or Mexico? c) not traveled to either country?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.14 b) 0.23 c) 0.77

Step by step solution

01

Identify Known Probabilities

We are provided with the following probabilities:- Probability of traveling to Canada, \( P(C) = 0.18 \).- Probability of traveling to Mexico, \( P(M) = 0.09 \).- Probability of traveling to both countries, \( P(C \cap M) = 0.04 \).
02

Calculate Probability of Traveling to Canada But Not Mexico

Let's find the probability of traveling to Canada but not Mexico. This can be written as \( P(C \cap eg M) \), which is calculated by subtracting the probability of visiting both from the probability of visiting Canada:\[ P(C \cap eg M) = P(C) - P(C \cap M) = 0.18 - 0.04 = 0.14 \].
03

Calculate Probability of Traveling to Either Country

We need to find the probability that an individual has traveled to either Canada or Mexico. This can be represented as \( P(C \cup M) \). According to the formula for union of events:\[ P(C \cup M) = P(C) + P(M) - P(C \cap M) \].Substitute the given probabilities:\[ P(C \cup M) = 0.18 + 0.09 - 0.04 = 0.23 \].
04

Calculate Probability of Not Traveling to Either Country

We can calculate the probability of not having traveled to either Canada or Mexico, represented as \( P(eg(C \cup M)) \). This is the complement of traveling to either country:\[ P(eg(C \cup M)) = 1 - P(C \cup M) \].Substitute the probability from the previous step:\[ P(eg(C \cup M)) = 1 - 0.23 = 0.77 \].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Complementary Events
In the context of probability theory, complementary events cover scenarios where one event is the opposite of another. For example, when discussing the probability of a U.S. resident not traveling to either Canada or Mexico, we are utilizing the concept of complementary events. The formula for finding the probability of a complement is:
  • \( P(eg A) = 1 - P(A) \)
In the given exercise, we found that the probability of someone traveling to either Canada or Mexico, \( P(C \cup M) \), is 0.23. To find the probability that a person has not traveled to either country, we calculate its complement by subtracting \( P(C \cup M) \) from 1, resulting in 0.77. This simple alteration allows us to look at the flip side of the original event effectively.
Union of Events
The union of events in probability theory refers to the likelihood of one or more events occurring. When dealing with probabilities, the union of two events can be calculated using the formula:
  • \( P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \)
This formula helps us determine the probability of either event A or event B, or both, happening. In our exercise, we calculated the probability that a U.S. resident has traveled to either Canada or Mexico, represented as \( P(C \cup M) \). By applying the union formula, we substituted the known values for the individual probabilities and the probability of traveling to both countries, which provided us a result of 0.23. This shows the extent of coverage across both events without over-counting the overlap.
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is a key part of probability theory, dealing with the probability of an event occurring, given that another event has already occurred. While not directly included in every step of the given exercise, understanding conditional probability helps in deeper comprehension of probability problems. The formula generally used is:
  • \( P(A | B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \)
This indicates how likely A is, provided B is known to happen. Although our main calculations didn't call for conditional probability explicitly, knowing it allows students to differentiate statistics based on additional criteria or different known probabilities. Understanding when and how to apply conditional probability can enhance problem-solving skills in more complex situations.
Probability Rules
Probability rules provide the foundation for finding the probabilities of more complex events by evaluating simpler probabilities and relationships.
  • **Sum Rule:** Helps in determining the probability of the union of two events.
  • **Complement Rule:** Determines the probability of the complement of an event.
  • **Multiplication Rule:** Often assists with finding intersections in probability.
Our exercise uses both the sum and complement rules extensively. For instance, we employ the sum rule to find the combined likelihood of traveling to either Canada or Mexico. Meanwhile, the complement rule provides a clear path to determine who has not traveled to either country. By mastering these foundational rules, one can effectively solve a wide array of probability problems with confidence.

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