/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 17 Suppose that \(46 \%\) of famili... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Suppose that \(46 \%\) of families living in a certain county own a computer and \(18 \%\) own an HDTV. The Addition Rule might suggest, then, that \(64 \%\) of families own either a computer or an HDTV. What's wrong with that reasoning?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The reasoning fails by overlooking families who own both items, leading to overcounting.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Addition Rule for Probability

The Addition Rule for probability states that for any two events, the probability of either event occurring is the sum of the probability of each event occurring minus the probability of both events occurring. Mathematically, this is expressed as: \( P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \). Here, \( A \) is the event that a family owns a computer and \( B \) is that a family owns an HDTV.
02

Break Down Given Probabilities

From the problem, we have \( P(A) = 0.46 \) and \( P(B) = 0.18 \). And the rule might incorrectly suggest \( P(A \cup B) = 0.46 + 0.18 = 0.64 \). However, this does not take into account families that might own both a computer and an HDTV.
03

Identify the Overcounting Issue

The mistake in the reasoning is due to overcounting families who own both a computer and an HDTV. The correct application of the addition rule would require us to subtract the probability \( P(A \cap B) \) of families owning both items, which is not provided in the problem but is necessary for calculating \( P(A \cup B) \).
04

Consider Possibility and Conclusion

Since \( P(A \cap B) \) can be a positive value, \( P(A) + P(B) \) will overestimate \( P(A \cup B) \). Thus, without knowledge or specification of \( P(A \cap B) \), we cannot simply add the individual probabilities. The reasoning is flawed due to the exclusion of the intersection probability.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability theory
Probability theory forms the foundation of understanding how likelihoods or chances of different events are calculated and interpreted. In probability, an event is a set of outcomes to which a probability is assigned. When dealing with two events, it's essential to determine whether they are mutually exclusive or not. When they are not mutually exclusive, meaning they can both occur at the same time, we must adjust how we calculate the probability that at least one of them occurs.

To manage this, probability theory uses formulas like the Addition Rule. This rule helps in calculating the probability of either event occurring. It ensures that any shared likelihood is not counted twice, effectively correcting any overcount that might occur when counting each event separately. This aspect of probability theory is especially crucial when dealing with real-life scenarios."},{"concept_headline":"Event intersection","text":"An event intersection refers to the scenario where two events occur simultaneously. In terms of probability, the intersection of two events is represented by \( P(A \cap B) \), where \( A \cap B \) denotes the set of outcomes that belong to both event \( A \) and event \( B \). Calculating this intersection is vital when the events can happen at the same time, such as a family owning both a computer and an HDTV.

This concept is crucial in applying the Addition Rule correctly. By including \( P(A \cap B) \) in the calculations, we avoid the pitfall of counting shared outcomes twice. Understanding event intersection helps in determining the correct probability that at least one out of multiple events occurs, without overestimation. It's an essential addition to any probability discussion, ensuring accurate and realistic probability modeling."},{"concept_headline":"Overcounting","text":"Overcounting occurs when the shared component of two events, that happen simultaneously, is counted twice, leading to an inflated probability. In the example provided, simply adding the individual probabilities of owning a computer \( P(A) = 0.46 \) and an HDTV \( P(B) = 0.18 \) without considering the intersection \( P(A \cap B) \) leads to an overcount.

To correct overcounting, the probability of both events occurring must be subtracted from the sum of the individual probabilities. This adjustment ensures an accurate result by not double-counting the families that own both devices. Recognizing and addressing overcounting is a key part of using probability principles effectively, as it ensures the results reflect the true likelihood of one or more events happening."}]} fgastonmanual on Mar 10 2023 at 12:30 pm ## Alternative interpretation:maybe he bought the foresightI'm not certain. Could AI strrateg enigeersepect this?Jsonschemaschema context sw44DK! discuss stretch gird attempt argue return cycle forward strong generate exclude potential step confirmationrich BG 'simple'!(precision analysis permutation mechanism validation

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