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Most people think that the "normal" adult body temperature is \(98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\) That figure, based on a 19th-century study, has recently been challenged. In a 1992 article in the Journal of the American Medical Association, researchers reported that a more accurate figure may be \(98.2 \circ \mathrm{F}\). Furthermore, the standard deviation appeared to be around \(0.7 \circ \mathrm{F}\). Assume that a Normal model is appropriate. a. In what interval would you expect most people's body temperatures to be? Explain. b. What fraction of people would be expected to have body temperatures above \(98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\) c. Below what body temperature are the coolest \(20 \%\) of all people?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Most people's body temperatures would lie between \(96.8 \circ \mathrm{F}\) and \(99.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\). b. Approximately 28.43% of people would have body temperatures above \(98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\). c. The coolest 20% of people would have a body temperature below \(97.612 \circ \mathrm{F}\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify Interval for Most Body Temperatures

Under the Normal model (or bell curve model), about 95% of values are within 2 standard deviations of the mean. In this case, the mean is \(98.2 \circ \mathrm{F}\) and the standard deviation is \(0.7 \circ \mathrm{F}\). Therefore, the interval in which most body temperatures should lie is \((98.2 - 2*0.7 , 98.2 + 2*0.7) = (96.8 \circ \mathrm{F}, 99.6 \circ \mathrm{F})\)
02

Fraction of People with Body Temperatures Above \(98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\)

To determine this, we first have to calculate the z-score, which measures how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. The formula for the z-score is \(Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\), where \(X\) is the data element, \(μ\) is the mean, and \(σ\) is the standard deviation. Sequently, for \(X = 98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\), the z-score works out to be \(Z = \frac{98.6 - 98.2}{0.7} = 0.57\). Referencing a Z-table to find the area to the left for \(0.57\), you would find it is approximately 0.7157. Since you want the area to the right (to find temperatures above \(98.6\)), subtract from 1: \(1-0.7157 = 0.2843\). Therefore, about 28.43% of people have body temperatures above \(98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\)
03

Find Lowest Body Temperature for Coolest 20% People

For the coolest 20%, we need to find the temperature below which 20% of readings would fall. This involves finding the z-score corresponding to the 20% area to the left of the curve on a Z-table. This z-score is approximately -0.84. Once we have the z-score, we can find the corresponding temperature using the formula \(T = \mu + Z*\sigma\). Substituting the values, we get \(T = 98.2 + (-0.84)*0.7 = 97.612 \circ \mathrm{F}\). Therefore, the coolest 20% of people have a body temperature below \(97.612 \circ \mathrm{F}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Deviation Explained
Standard deviation is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be close to the mean (also known as the expected value) of the set, while a high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a wider range of values.

In the context of our exercise, the standard deviation of adults' body temperatures is given as \(0.7 \circ \mathrm{F}\). This signifies how far, on average, an individual's body temperature deviates from the average body temperature of \(98.2 \circ \mathrm{F}\). When using the normal distribution model, standard deviation plays a key role as it helps define the intervals within which most data points (in this case, body temperatures) are expected to fall. For instance, approximately 68% of the data within one standard deviation of the mean, about 95% within two standard deviations, and 99.7% within three standard deviations, which is known as the empirical rule or the 68-95-99.7 rule.

In practical terms, knowing the standard deviation allows health professionals and researchers to make informed statements about what 'normal' body temperature ranges look like for the general population.
Understanding the Z-Score
A z-score, also known as a standard score, is a numerical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values, measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. It is a dimensionless quantity that indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean.

The z-score is calculated using the formula \(Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\), where \(X\) is the value being evaluated, \(\mu\) is the mean of the data, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation. In our exercise, we computed the z-score for a body temperature of \(98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\) to find out how it compares to the average temperature. It turned out to be 0.57, meaning that \(98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\) is 0.57 standard deviations above the average.

Z-scores are extremely useful in determining how unusual or usual a data point is within a distribution. They are also critical in comparing different data points that may come from different normal distributions, making them a universal metric for comparison. Also, by using the z-score, we can refer to the standard normal distribution table (often called the Z-table) to find probabilities associated with our z-score, helping to answer statistical questions about our data.
Statistical Mean: The Center of the Data
The statistical mean, also simply known as the average, is the central value of a set of numbers. It is calculated by adding up all the values and then dividing by the number of values. The mean is one of the key measures of central tendency in statistics, along with the median and the mode.

In terms of the normal distribution, the mean is also the peak of the bell curve. It represents the point around which the values of the data set are symmetrically distributed. In our body temperature example, the researchers proposed that the more accurate average adult body temperature is \(98.2 \circ \mathrm{F}\), rather than the previously thought \(98.6 \circ \mathrm{F}\). This mean value sets the center around which we gauge if an individual's body temperature can be considered normal or unusual. Knowing the mean helps healthcare providers to determine if a patient's body temperature should cause concern.

When we talk about measurements and data analysis, understanding the mean provides a quick snapshot of where the bulk of values lies, which is essential for making generalizations or predictions about a particular group or population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose your statistics professor reports test grades as \(z\) -scores, and you got a score of 2.20 on an exam. a. Write a sentence explaining what that means. b. Your friend got a z-score of -1 . If the grades satisfy the Nearly Normal Condition, about what percent of the class scored lower than your friend?

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