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Human births If there is no seasonal effect on human births, we would expect equal numbers of children to be born in each season (winter, spring, summer, and fall). A student takes a census of her statistics class and finds that of the 120 students in the class, 25 were born in winter, 35 in spring, 32 in summer, and 28 in fall. She wonders if the excess in the spring is an indication that births are not uniform throughout the year. a. What is the expected number of births in each season if there is no "seasonal effect" on births? b. Compute the \(\chi^{2}\) statistic. c. How many degrees of freedom does the \(\chi^{2}\) statistic have?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The expected number of births in each season, if there is no seasonal effect, is 30. b. The \(\chi^{2}\) statistic is 1.92. c. There are 3 degrees of freedom.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Expected Number of Births

If there is no seasonal effect, an equal number of births are expected in each season. We divide the total number of students, 120, by the number of seasons, 4: \[ \frac{120}{4} = 30 \]. So, we would expect 30 births in each season if there's no seasonal effect.
02

Compute the \(\chi^{2}\) statistic

The \(\chi^{2}\) statistic is calculated as: \[ \chi^{2} = \sum{\frac{(O_i - E_i)^{2}}{E_i}} \] where \(O_i\) are the observed values, and \(E_i\) the expected values. In this case, values for winter, spring, summer, and fall respectively as \(O_i\) would be 25, 35, 32, 28 and \(E_i\) would be 30 for each season. Hence, \[ \chi^{2} = \frac{(25-30)^2}{30} + \frac{(35-30)^2}{30} + \frac{(32-30)^2}{30} + \frac{(28-30)^2}{30} = 0.83 + 0.83 + 0.13 + 0.13 = 1.92 \].
03

Compute the Degrees of Freedom

Degrees of freedom for the \(\chi^{2}\) test is calculated as \(df = n - 1\) where \(n\) is the number of categories. Here, as the categories are four seasons, the degrees of freedom would be \(4 - 1 = 3\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Seasonal Effect on Births
Understanding the potential of a seasonal effect on human births can provide insights into various socio-cultural and environmental factors that influence birth rates. If births are evenly distributed throughout the year, this suggests that no particular season significantly affects conception or birth rates. However, if a higher number of births are observed in certain seasons over others, this could indicate the presence of a seasonal effect.

The study of seasonal birth patterns involves analyzing birth records over time to see if there's a statistical significance in the distribution of births across the seasons. It's an interesting phenomenon that has been observed in various populations and can be influenced by many factors, such as climate, holidays, and cultural practices. The presence of a seasonal trend in births may also affect workforce planning, healthcare services, and educational enrollment planning.

In the provided exercise, we see a practical application of this concept. A student investigates her statistics class to determine if the distribution of her classmates' birth seasons suggests a seasonal effect. This kind of study is especially important in fields like epidemiology, sociology, and economics, where understanding population dynamics is critical.
Expected Frequency
The term 'expected frequency' in statistics refers to the number of occurrences that we would predict to happen in each category if there were no true effect or difference. To calculate the expected frequency, one typically divides the total number of observations by the number of categories.

For example, if we are looking at births across four seasons and there is no seasonal effect, the expected frequency of births per season would be uniform. In the context of the given exercise, the expected frequency of births per season is 30, which is obtained by dividing the total number of students (120) by the number of seasons (4).

The concept of expected frequency is crucial when performing chi-square tests because it serves as a benchmark against which the observed frequencies are compared. This comparison helps determine whether the deviations between observed and expected are due to random chance or if they indicate a statistically significant difference, potentially suggesting a real effect, such as the seasonal effect on births.
Degrees of Freedom
Degrees of freedom are an essential concept in statistics, often abbreviated as 'df', that describe the number of independent values or quantities which can be assigned to a statistical distribution. The calculation of degrees of freedom is crucial because it impacts the interpretation of the significance of a statistical test.

In the context of a chi-square test, the degrees of freedom are calculated based on the number of categories under study. Specifically, it is the number of categories minus one \( df = n - 1 \). This subtraction accounts for the restriction imposed by the fixed total number of observations. For the chi-square test in our exercise, since there are four seasons (categories), the degrees of freedom would be three \(4 - 1 = 3\).

Understanding degrees of freedom helps researchers to select the appropriate chi-square distribution table to determine the significance of their test statistic. It takes into account the number of independent pieces of information that go into the estimation of parameters. Thus, the degrees of freedom are a key component in evaluating the results and assumptions of various statistical tests.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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