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A Time magazine article about a survey of men's attitudes reported that 11 of 161 black respondents and 20 of 358 Latino respondents responded "Yes" to the question "Are you a stay-at-home dad?" How big is the difference in proportions in the two populations? a. Construct and interpret an appropriate confidence interval. b. Overall, the survey contacted 1302 men and claims a margin of error of \(\pm 2.9 \%\). Why is the margin of error different for your confidence interval?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The difference in proportions between black and Latino 'stay-at-home dads' is 0.0124. A 95% confidence interval for the difference is (-0.0263, 0.0511). This interval suggests that the difference might be due to random sampling variability. The margin of error in the overall survey is smaller because it's based on the entire sample size (1302) rather than the smaller divided groups (161 and 358), and hence has less variability.

Step by step solution

01

Compute Proportions

First, compute the proportions of 'stay-at-home dads' in both populations. For black respondents, this is \(\frac{11}{161} = 0.0683\). For Latino respondents, this is \(\frac{20}{358} = 0.0559\).
02

Compute Difference in Proportions

Subtract the Latino proportion from the black proportion to find the difference: \(0.0683 - 0.0559 = 0.0124\). This is our point estimate for the difference in proportions.
03

Construct Confidence Interval

Next, find the standard error (SE) of the difference. The formula is \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{(p1*(1-p1))}{n1} + \frac{(p2*(1-p2))}{n2}}\). Substituting the values we have, we get \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{(0.0683*(1-0.0683))}{161} + \frac{(0.0559*(1-0.0559))}{358}} = 0.0196\). Using the z-score for 95% confidence level (z = 1.96), the confidence interval can be calculated as \((0.0124 - 1.96*0.0196, 0.0124 + 1.96*0.0196) = (-0.0263, 0.0511)\). This is our 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions.
04

Explain Difference in Margin of Error

Lastly, it's asked why the margin of error is different for the overall survey compared to the calculated confidence interval. This is because the margin of error for a survey is usually calculated for the total sample regardless of categorical divisions. It's therefore based on the size of the entire sample (1302) rather than those of individual categories (161 and 358). Confidence intervals are specific to the groups they're computed for, so they typically have a larger margin of error.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Survey Analysis
When conducting a survey analysis, researchers are often interested in understanding the characteristics or opinions within a certain population based on a sampled subset of that population. In the provided exercise example, the survey was aimed at discovering the prevalence of stay-at-home dads within black and Latino populations. To extract meaningful insights, researchers compute the proportions of respondents who answer in a particular way. Here, we find that 11 out of 161 black respondents and 20 out of 358 Latino respondents identified as stay-at-home dads. Calculating these proportions—0.0683 for black respondents and 0.0559 for Latino respondents—provides a snapshot of the attitudes or conditions prevalent within these populations.

Once these initial proportions are computed, survey analysts can then explore the relationship and differences between these groups. Understanding the difference in proportions is critical for identifying disparities or commonalities in demographic subgroups which can inform policy, business strategies, or further research. This comparative analysis often leads to the construction of confidence intervals to offer a range within which the true difference in population proportions is likely to fall, with a certain level of confidence.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is a statistic that expresses the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. It represents the range that the true population parameter will fall within for a certain proportion of samples taken. In simpler terms, it's the plus-or-minus figure that you often see in polls and surveys, indicating the potential error in the estimated proportion or mean. In the exercise, the overall survey claims a margin of error of \(\pm 2.9\text{%}\).

This margin of error relates to the entire survey's findings and reflects the uncertainty in the survey's results due to it being based on a sample rather than the entire population. A smaller margin of error indicates that you can be more confident that the true population parameter is close to the sample statistic. However, the margin of error in a confidence interval for a difference in proportions, such as that between black and Latino stay-at-home dads in the exercise, can differ because it is affected by the respective sample sizes and variations within each subgroup, as opposed to the entire surveyed population.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a sample statistic, such as a proportion or mean, from the population parameter it estimates. It is used to quantify the precision of the sample statistic, with a smaller SE indicating a more precise estimate. In the context of the exercise, the standard error of the difference between two sample proportions is computed to understand how much the estimated difference between the black and Latino stay-at-home dads' proportions might vary from the true population difference due to random sampling variation.

To calculate the standard error of the difference in proportions, the formula incorporates both the proportions themselves (represented by \(p1\) and \(p2\)) and the sample sizes (\(n1\) and \(n2\)). The formula is \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{(p1*(1-p1))}{n1} + \frac{(p2*(1-p2))}{n2}} \). Once the standard error is determined, it can be used to calculate a confidence interval around the difference in proportions, providing insight into the range of likely values for the population difference with an associated confidence level, typically 95%. This interval gives researchers a clear window through which they can understand the variability inherent in survey responses, lending validity to survey findings and ensuring that conclusions drawn from sample data are done so with an awareness of the potential for error.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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