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A statistics professor has observed that for several years students score an average of 105 points out of 150 on the semester exam. A salesman suggests that he try a statistics software package that gets students more involved with computers, predicting that it will increase students' scores. The software is expensive, and the salesman offers to let the professor use it for a semester to see if the scores on the final exam increase significantly. The professor will have to pay for the software only if he chooses to continue using it. a. Is this a one-tailed or two-tailed test? Explain. b. Write the null and alternative hypotheses. c. In this context, explain what would happen if the professor makes a Type I error. d. In this context, explain what would happen if the professor makes a Type II error. e. What is meant by the power of this test?

Short Answer

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a. This is a one-tailed test. b. The null hypothesis is \( H_0: \mu = 105 \) and the alternative hypothesis is \( Ha: \mu > 105 \). c. A Type I error would mean the professor incorrectly concludes that the software improves scores. d. A Type II error would imply that the professor incorrectly concludes that the software does not improve scores. e. The power of the test is its ability to correctly reject the null hypothesis when it is false.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the Type of Test

We are examining if the usage of a new software makes a difference to the students' scores, specifically, if it increases the scores. This is a directional problem because we only care about whether the scores have increased, not if they've decreased. As such, it would be a one-tailed test.
02

Write the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The null hypothesis (Ho) would be that the scores remain the same irrespective of the usage of the new software. Hence, \( H_0: \mu = 105 \). \nThe alternative hypothesis (Ha) is that the usage of software increases the scores. Hence, \( Ha: \mu > 105 \), where \( \mu \) represents the population mean score.
03

Explain Type I Error

A Type I error occurs if we reject the null hypothesis when it is actually true. In this context, it would mean that the professor concludes that the new software improves scores when in reality, it doesn't.
04

Explain Type II Error

A Type II error occurs when we fail to reject the null hypothesis when it is actually false. In this context, it would mean that the professor concludes that the software does not significantly improve scores when in fact, it does.
05

Explain Power of Test

The power of a statistical test measures the test's ability to reject the null hypothesis when it is false; in other words, to make a correct decision. In this scenario, the power of the test would be the probability that the professor finds that the software significantly improves scores, assuming it actually does.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

One-tailed Test
Understanding a one-tailed test in statistics is crucial for analyzing data when a research question predicts the direction of an effect. In the context of the exercise, the professor aims to determine if a new software package enhances his students' scores. This kind of hypothesis implies direction—specifically an increase—not a decrease or any change in scores. Therefore, the appropriate approach is a one-tailed test.

A one-tailed test is focused on a specific direction. If the professor were equally concerned about scores decreasing as well as increasing, a two-tailed test would be used instead. The one-tailed test in this situation allows for a more powerful examination of the hypothesis that the students' scores will improve due to the software because only one direction of change is of interest.
Type I and Type II Errors
Making correct inferences from data is not always guaranteed, and the potential for errors exists. In hypothesis testing, two common errors are Type I and Type II errors.

A Type I error, also known as a false positive, happens if the professor rejects the null hypothesis when it actually should have been accepted; meaning the professor thinks the software helps when it does not. This error could lead to unnecessary expenditures on a software that has no real effect on student performance.

A Type II error, or a false negative, is the reverse situation. Here, the null hypothesis is erroneously accepted when it should have been rejected. This error would lead the professor to conclude that the software does not improve scores when, in fact, it does. Type II errors could result in a missed opportunity to enhance student learning. Balancing these errors is a critical aspect of hypothesis testing, as minimizing one often increases the risk of the other.
Statistical Power
The concept of statistical power plays a fundamental role in hypothesis testing. It describes the test's sensitivity—its ability to detect an effect when one truly exists. The power of a test is the probability that it correctly rejects a false null hypothesis, thus avoiding a Type II error.

In the professor's case, the power of the test informs how likely it is that he will detect an improvement in students' scores due to the software if such an improvement is real. A test with high power means there's a better chance of identifying true effects; in other words, if the software genuinely enhances student performance, a powerful test will demonstrate this convincingly. The power can be affected by several factors, including the sample size, the significance level chosen for the test, and the effect size.
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Formulating the null and alternative hypotheses is the foundation of hypothesis testing. The null hypothesis (\( H_0 \) represents a statement of 'no effect' or 'no difference' and serves as the starting assumption. The alternative hypothesis (\( H_a \) or \( H_1 \) posits the presence of an effect or a difference that the researcher aims to support.

In the professor’s scenario, the null hypothesis is that the software has no significant effect on student scores (\( H_0: \) \( \( \mu = 105 \) \)). The alternative hypothesis suggests there is an effect, specifically that the software leads to higher scores than the historical average (\( H_a: \) \( \( \mu > 105 \) \)). Crafting these hypotheses clearly is critical for guiding the testing process and interpreting the results properly. If the research does not support the null hypothesis, it lends credibility to the alternative hypothesis, urging further investigation or adoption of the new method.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

For each of the following situations, state whether a Type I, a Type II, or neither error has been made. a. A test of \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: \mu=25\) vs. \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{A}}: \mu>25\) rejects the null hypothesis. Later it is discovered that \(\mu=24.9\). b. A test of \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.8\) vs. \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{A}}: p<0.8\) fails to reject the null hypothesis. Later it is discovered that \(p=0.9\). c. A test of \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.5\) vs. \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{A}}: p \neq 0.5\) rejects the null hypothesis. Later it is discovered that \(p=0.65\). d. A test of \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.7\) vs. \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{A}}: p<0.7\) fails to reject the null hypothesis. Later it is discovered that \(p=0.6\).

Soon after the euro was introduced as currency in Europe, it was widely reported that someone had spun a euro coin 250 times and gotten heads 140 times. We wish to test a hypothesis about the fairness of spinning the coin. a. Estimate the true proportion of heads. Use a \(95 \%\) confidence interval. Don't forget to check the conditions. b. Does your confidence interval provide evidence that the coin is unfair when spun? Explain. c. What is the significance level of this test? Explain.

For each of the following situations, state whether a Type I, a Type II, or neither error has been made. Explain briefly. a. A bank wants to know if the enrollment on their website is above \(30 \%\) based on a small sample of customers. They test \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.3\) vs. \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{A}}: p>0.3\) and reject the null hypothesis. Later they find out that actually \(28 \%\) of all customers enrolled. b. A student tests 100 students to determine whether other students on her campus prefer Coke or Pepsi and finds no evidence that preference for Coke is not 0.5 . Later, a marketing company tests all students on campus and finds no difference. c. A human resource analyst wants to know if the applicants this year score, on average, higher on their placement exam than the 52.5 points the candidates averaged last year. She samples 50 recent tests and finds the average to be 54.1 points. She fails to reject the null hypothesis that the mean is 52.5 points. At the end of the year, they find that the candidates this year had a mean of 55.3 points. d. A pharmaceutical company tests whether a drug lifts the headache relief rate from the \(25 \%\) achieved by the placebo. They fail to reject the null hypothesis because the P-value is \(0.465 .\) Further testing shows that the drug actually relieves headaches in \(38 \%\) of people.

Which of the following are true? If false, explain briefly. a. A very high P-value is strong evidence that the null hypothesis is false. b. A very low P-value proves that the null hypothesis is false. c. A high P-value shows that the null hypothesis is true. d. A P-value below 0.05 is always considered sufficient evidence to reject a null hypothesis.

Highway safety engineers test new road signs, hoping that increased reflectivity will make them more visible to drivers. Volunteers drive through a test course with several of the new- and old-style signs and rate which kind shows up the best. a. Is this a one-tailed or a two-tailed test? Why? b. In this context, what would a Type I error be? c. In this context, what would a Type II error be? d. In this context, what is meant by the power of the test? e. If the hypothesis is tested at the \(1 \%\) level of significance instead of \(5 \%\), how will this affect the power of the test? f. The engineers hoped to base their decision on the reactions of 50 drivers, but time and budget constraints may force them to cut back to 20 . How would this affect the power of the test? Explain.

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