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A company is sued for job discrimination because only \(19 \%\) of the newly hired candidates were minorities when \(27 \%\) of all applicants were minorities. Is this strong evidence that the company's hiring practices are discriminatory? a. Is this a one-tailed or a two-tailed test? Why? b. In this context, what would a Type I error be? c. In this context, what would a Type II error be? d. In this context, what is meant by the power of the test? e. If the hypothesis is tested at the \(5 \%\) level of significance instead of \(1 \%\), how will this affect the power of the test? \(\mathrm{f}\). The lawsuit is based on the hiring of 37 employees. Is the power of the test higher than, lower than, or the same as it would be if it were based on 87 hires?

Short Answer

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a. This is a one-tailed test because we are only checking for less hiring of minorities. b. A type I error in this context would falsely conclude that the company's hiring practices are discriminatory. c. A type II error would wrongly suggest there is no discrimination in the company's hiring practices when there is. d. The power of the test is the probability that the test correctly rejects the null hypothesis. e. Reducing the level of significance results in a lower power of the test. f. The power of the test based on 87 employees would be higher than it is for 37 employees

Step by step solution

01

Identify the type of test

The type of test is determined by the nature of the hypothesis. If we are checking if the company is doing less or more hiring of minorities than it should, it will be a two-tailed test. But, if we only care about whether they are doing less hiring, it is a one-tailed test. In this case, since the company is being accused of discrimination, i.e., hiring fewer minorities than expected, it is a one-tailed test.
02

Understand Type I Error

A type I error occurs when the null hypothesis (i.e., no discrimination) is true, but we incorrectly reject it. In this context, a type I error would conclude that the company's hiring practices are discriminatory when they are not.
03

Understand Type II Error

A type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is false, but we fail to reject it. Therefore, in this context, a type II error would suggest no discrimination in the company's hiring practices even though it discriminates.
04

Power of Test

The power of a statistical test is the probability that it correctly rejects the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true. It is computed as \(1 - \beta\), where \(\beta\) is the probability of a type II error. The power of the test is determined by the sample size, the significance level, and the actual population proportion.
05

Hypothesis Testing at Different Levels of Significance

Lowering the level of significance from \(5 \%\) to \(1 \%\), the likelihood of making a type I error decreases. However, decreasing the level of significance can increase the probability of a type II error, thus reducing the power of the test.
06

Power of Test with Different Sample Sizes

The power of the test increases with a larger sample size. Therefore, the power of the test based on 87 hires will be higher than the power of the test based on 37 hires.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

One-Tailed Test
When analyzing statistical tests, it's crucial to understand the one-tailed test, especially in practical scenarios like discrimination lawsuits. In the mentioned company's case, where the accusation is that fewer minorities are hired than should be, a one-tailed test is appropriate. This test assesses the probability of the hiring rate for minorities being significantly lower than the proportion in the application pool.

A one-tailed test concentrates on a specific direction of interest. In contrast to a two-tailed test, which checks for any significant difference in either direction, the one-tailed test only checks for evidence in one specified direction. If we suspect discrimination, we are not concerned with the company hiring too many minorities—only too few. By focusing our hypothesis test in this way, we can be more conclusive about the specific type of alternative hypothesis we're investigating.
Type I Error
A Type I error, often referred to as a 'false positive,' is a mistake made in hypothesis testing when a true null hypothesis is incorrectly rejected. The consequences of such an error can be significant. In the context of our company's hiring practices, a Type I error would mean that we conclude there is discrimination when, in fact, the hiring procedures were fair.

This error has direct implications not just statistically, but also legally and ethically. It means labeling the company as discriminatory without just cause, which could lead to undeserved financial and reputational damage. It's the reason why in statistical testing, especially when the stakes are high, controlling the chance of making a Type I error is a priority, typically by setting a lower alpha level.
Type II Error
On the other side of the error spectrum is the Type II error, also known as a 'false negative.' This error occurs when the null hypothesis is false—there is an effect or a difference—but the test fails to detect it. In our particular case, a Type II error would occur if the company did indeed have discriminatory hiring practices, but the statistical test did not detect this difference.

The implication of a Type II error in this context is just as serious as a Type I error. It means that discriminatory practices might go unpunished and could continue unchecked. Therefore, awareness of and attempts to minimize Type II errors are just as vital to ensure fairness and justice.
Power of a Statistical Test
The power of a statistical test is the probability that it will reject a false null hypothesis. It represents the test's sensitivity to detect an effect if there is one. In other words, a powerful test is more likely to pick up on discrimination in hiring practices if it actually occurs.

The power of a statistical test is influenced by several factors, such as the significance level chosen (alpha) and the sample size. For instance, increasing the sample size or choosing a higher significance level generally increases the test's power. This makes it more likely to detect discrimination if it's truly happening. Altering the significance level from 5% to 1% makes the criteria for finding evidence of discrimination more stringent, potentially lowering the test's power, as it becomes less likely to detect a real effect. Additionally, as demonstrated in the exercise, the power is naturally higher with a larger sample size (87 hires) compared to a smaller one (37 hires), which helps to ensure a reliable conclusion about the company's hiring practices.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Which of the following statements are true? If false, explain briefly. a. It is better to use an alpha level of 0.05 than an alpha level of 0.01 . b. If we use an alpha level of 0.01 , then a P-value of 0.001 is statistically significant. c. If we use an alpha level of \(0.01,\) then we reject the null hypothesis if the \(\mathrm{P}\) -value is 0.001 d. If the P-value is 0.01 , we reject the null hypothesis for any alpha level greater than 0.01 .

Have harsher penalties and ad campaigns increased seat-belt use among drivers and passengers? Observations of commuter traffic failed to find evidence of a significant change compared with three years ago. Explain what the study's P-value of 0.17 means in this context.

Soon after the euro was introduced as currency in Europe, it was widely reported that someone had spun a euro coin 250 times and gotten heads 140 times. We wish to test a hypothesis about the fairness of spinning the coin. a. Estimate the true proportion of heads. Use a \(95 \%\) confidence interval. Don't forget to check the conditions. b. Does your confidence interval provide evidence that the coin is unfair when spun? Explain. c. What is the significance level of this test? Explain.

Environmentalists concerned about the impact of high-frequency radio transmissions on birds found that there was no evidence of a higher mortality rate among hatchlings in nests near cell towers. They based this conclusion on a test using \(\alpha=0.05\). Would they have made the same decision at \(\alpha=0.10 ?\) How about \(\alpha=0.01 ?\) Explain.

Production managers on an assembly line must monitor the output to be sure that the level of defective products remains small. They periodically inspect a random sample of the items produced. If they find a significant increase in the proportion of items that must be rejected, they will halt the assembly process until the problem can be identified and repaired. a. In this context, what is a Type I error? b. In this context, what is a Type II error? c. Which type of error would the factory owner consider more serious? d. Which type of error might customers consider more serious?

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