/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 27 Seventy percent of kids who visi... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Seventy percent of kids who visit a doctor have a fever, and \(30 \%\) of kids with a fever also have sore throats. What's the probability that a kid who goes to the doctor has a fever and a sore throat?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a child who goes to the doctor has both a fever and a sore throat is 0.21 or 21%.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the probabilities

The probability that a child who visits a doctor has a fever is \(70\%\) or \(0.7\). Given that a child has a fever, the probability that they also have a sore throat is \(30\%\) or \(0.3\). These probabilities are denoted as P(Fever) = 0.7 and P(SoreThroat|Fever) = 0.3.
02

Calculate the combined probability

The probability that a child who visits a doctor has both a fever and a sore throat is found by multiplying the separate probabilities: P(Fever and SoreThroat) = P(Fever) x P(SoreThroat|Fever) = 0.7 x 0.3 = 0.21.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Conditional Probability
Understanding conditional probability is key in determining the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already happened. In the given exercise, we learn that the probability of a kid having a fever when visiting a doctor is 70%, represented as P(Fever) = 0.7. Then, if we know the child has a fever, there is a 30% chance that they also have a sore throat, which is the conditional probability P(SoreThroat|Fever) = 0.3.

The vertical bar '|' denotes 'given that', which signifies the dependency of one event on the occurrence of another. In more practical terms, to find the likelihood of a child having a sore throat, we first acknowledge the condition that the child must have a fever. This concept is widely used across different domains, notably in healthcare, where the presence of one symptom can affect the likelihood of another.
Independent Events
The notion of independent events is central to understanding how different events can occur without influencing each other. Two events are considered independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other. However, the situation in our exercise doesn't exhibit independent events since the occurrence of a sore throat is conditional upon the child having a fever first.

For independent events, say A and B, their combined probability would be simply the product of their individual probabilities: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B). When events are not independent, as in our exercise, we cannot calculate the probability of both occurring without considering their relationship, which brings us to the concept of the probability multiplication rule.
Probability Multiplication Rule
The probability multiplication rule is a fundamental principle which helps us determine the likelihood of two related events occurring. In our textbook exercise, this rule is applied to calculate the probability of a child who goes to the doctor having both a fever and a sore throat. The formula for the multiplication rule in the context of conditional probability is P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A).

This equation tells us that the probability of both events A and B occurring is the product of the probability of A and the probability of B given A. In the exercise scenario, event A is the child having a fever, and event B (given A) is the child having a sore throat if they have a fever. By multiplying the probability of a fever (0.7) by the conditional probability of a sore throat given a fever (0.3), we found that P(Fever and SoreThroat) = 0.21, or a 21% chance that a child who visits the doctor has both a fever and a sore throat.

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