/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 23 Speeders Traffic checks on a cer... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Speeders Traffic checks on a certain section of highway suggest that \(60 \%\) of drivers are speeding there. Since \(0.6 \times 0.6=0.36\), the Multiplication Rule might suggest that there's a \(36 \%\) chance that two vehicles in a row are both speeding. What's wrong with that reasoning?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The error in the reasoning is that it assumes that the two events (two drivers speeding) are independent. On a highway, the driving behavior of one driver may influence that of the following driver, meaning these events may not be independent.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Independent Events

First, it's important to clarify what it means for two events to be independent: Two events A and B are considered independent if the probability of B occurring is the same whether or not A has occurred. So in this case, two cars speeding in succession would be independent if the behavior of the second driver doesn't depend on the behavior of the first driver.
02

Checking the Independence Assumption

However, on a highway, this assumption might not hold. The second driver's behavior could be influenced by the first driver. For instance, if the first car is speeding, the second car may decide to speed up too, seeing it as 'safer' because they believe both cars cannot be stopped by police simultaneously. Or on the contrary, they could slow down if they observe the first car speeding, fearing that a speed trap might be up ahead.
03

Conclusion

Therefore, the assumption that the two events (two drivers speeding in succession) are independent may be incorrect. Hence, the error in the reasoning presented in the exercise is assuming that the behavior of one driver does not influence the behavior of the next driver.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Probability Theory
In mathematics, probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood of different outcomes in various scenarios. It quantifies the notion of 'chance' or 'uncertainty' and often uses a numerical value between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates an impossible event and 1 represents an event that is certain to occur.

When we discuss probability, we often refer to 'events'—these are the outcomes or sets of outcomes that we're interested in. For example, the event of a driver speeding on a highway is one such outcome. The probability of an event is typically calculated based on observed frequencies, or it can be a measure of long-term expectations in theoretically defined situations.

The critical foundational rule in probability theory is that the sum of probabilities of all possible outcomes must equal 1. If we're considering whether a driver is speeding or not, there are two possibilities - either they are speeding, or they're not, and the probability of these two events must add up to 100%.
The Multiplication Rule in Probability
The Multiplication Rule is a fundamental principle in probability theory used to calculate the likelihood of two independent events occurring together. This rule states that if you have two independent events, A and B, the probability of both events occurring is the product of their separate probabilities. Mathematically, it is expressed as:
\[ P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B) \]
Here, \(P(A \text{ and } B)\) is the probability of both A and B happening together, while \(P(A)\) and \(P(B)\) are the probabilities of A and B occurring independently.

For example, if you're rolling a die and flipping a coin, the probability of rolling a three and flipping a head is the product of the individual probabilities: since the die and coin do not influence each other, we multiply 1/6 (the probability of rolling a three) by 1/2 (the probability of flipping a head) to get 1/12, the probability of both occurring together.
Statistical Independence
Statistical independence is a key concept in probability that refers to the scenario where the occurrence of one event has no effect on the likelihood of another event occurring. Events are considered to be independent if the probability of one event occurring is not altered by the presence or absence of the other event.

The principle of independence is crucial when applying the Multiplication Rule. If events are not independent, then the Multiplication Rule cannot be directly applied, and one must take into account how the events influence each other. In real-life scenarios like driving behavior, independence may not hold as the actions of one driver can influence another, thus making the simple application of the rule inaccurate without adjusting for these dependences.

For example, in the traffic case, the behavior of the first driver (event A) could affect the behavior of the second driver (event B), especially if B perceives A’s behavior. Therefore, it is always essential to assess the relationship between events before determining the combined probability of both events occurring.

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