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Show some computer output for fitting simple linear models. State the value of the sample slope for each model and give the null and alternative hypotheses for testing if the slope in the population is different from zero. Identify the p-value and use it (and a \(5 \%\) significance level) to make a clear conclusion about the effectiveness of the model.$$ \begin{array}{lrrrr} \text { Coefficients: } & \text { Estimate } & \text { Std.Error } & \mathrm{t} \text { value } & \operatorname{Pr}(>|\mathrm{t}|) \\ \text { (Intercept) } & 7.277 & 1.167 & 6.24 & 0.000 \\ \text { Dose } & -0.3560 & 0.2007 & -1.77 & 0.087 \end{array} $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sample slope for 'Dose' is -0.3560. The null hypothesis stating that the population slope equals 0 cannot be rejected at a 5% significance level as the p-value (0.087) is greater than 0.05. Therefore, there is not enough evidence to suggest that 'Dose' has a significant effect.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the model results

Based on the given computer output, the sample slope (also known as the coefficient for the predictor variable) for the 'Dose' variable is -0.3560. This means that for each unit increase in 'Dose', our outcome variable is predicted to decrease by approximately 0.356, assuming all other variables remain constant.
02

State the null and alternative hypotheses

For the 'Dose' variable, the null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses for testing if the slope in the population is different from zero are: H0: The population slope = 0 (There is no effect of 'Dose' on the outcome variable.)H1: The population slope ≠ 0 (There is an effect of 'Dose' on the outcome variable.)
03

Identification of p-value

The p-value for 'Dose' from the output is 0.087. The p-value signifies the probability that you would obtain the observed statistic if the null hypothesis were true.
04

Conclusion about the model's effectiveness

If a given p-value is less than the significance level (0.05 in this case), we reject the null hypothesis. Here, the p-value (0.087) is greater than the 0.05 significance level. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is not enough evidence to suggest the 'Dose' has a significant effect at a 5% significance level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a fundamental process in statistics to make decisions based on data. It involves formulating two hypotheses: the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) and the alternative hypothesis (\(H_1\)). The null hypothesis represents a statement of no effect or no difference, which we aim to test against the data.- **Null Hypothesis (\(H_0\)):** This is the baseline assumption, suggesting that any observed effect is due to random chance. For example, in the context of a simple linear regression model, it might state that the slope of the predictor variable is zero.- **Alternative Hypothesis (\(H_1\)):** This represents the hypothesis we suspect is true, such as the slope being different from zero, indicating an effect.The goal of hypothesis testing is to use sample data to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative. We do this by analyzing the data and using a statistical test to calculate a p-value.
P-value
The p-value is a crucial concept in hypothesis testing. It measures the probability of obtaining a result equal to or more extreme than what was actually observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.- A low p-value (< 0.05) indicates that the observed data are unlikely under the null hypothesis, leading us to reject \(H_0\).- A high p-value (> 0.05) suggests that the data are consistent with \(H_0\), so we fail to reject it.In the context of the exercise, the p-value for the effect of 'Dose' on the outcome variable was calculated to be 0.087. This result indicates that there is an 8.7% probability that the results could be due to random chance if the null hypothesis were true.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a formal way of deciding whether the observed effect in the data is strong enough to be considered genuine and not due to random variability. It’s determined by comparing the p-value to a predefined significance level, often denoted by alpha (\(\alpha\)).- **Significance Level (\(\alpha\)):** This is the threshold for deciding whether an effect is statistically significant, commonly set at 0.05.- **Decision Rule:** If the p-value is less than or equal to \(\alpha\), we conclude that the effect is statistically significant and reject \(H_0\).In the exercise, given a significance level of 0.05, the p-value of 0.087 was not low enough to reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, it was concluded that 'Dose' does not have a statistically significant effect at the 5% level.

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