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Gribbles are small, pale white, marine worms that bore through wood. While sometimes considered a pest since they can wreck wooden docks and piers, they are now being studied to determine whether the enzyme they secrete will allow us to turn inedible wood and plant waste into biofuel. \({ }^{25}\) A sample of 50 gribbles finds an average length of \(3.1 \mathrm{~mm}\) with a standard deviation of \(0.72 .\) Give a best estimate for the length of gribbles, a margin of error for this estimate (with \(95 \%\) confidence), and a \(95 \%\) confidence interval. Interpret the confidence interval in context. What do we have to assume about the sample in order to have confidence in our estimate?

Short Answer

Expert verified
From the calculations, best estimate for the length of gribbles is 3.1 mm. The margin of error for this estimate at 95% confidence level would be calculated based on SE and the Z-value for 95% confidence level. The 95% confidence interval would be the range calculated by subtracting and adding the margin of error from the mean. This interval gives us an estimation of where the true population mean lies with 95% confidence. The assumptions are that the sample is a simple random sample representative of the population and the population distribution is approximately normal.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Standard Error (SE)

The standard error can be calculated using the formula: SE = \(\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\) where \(s\) is the standard deviation and \(n\) is the size of the sample. In this case \(s = 0.72\) and \(n = 50\). Plug these values into the formula to find the SE.
02

Calculate Margin of Error (ME)

The margin of error can be calculated using the formula: ME = SE * Z where the Z value corresponds to the desired confidence level. For a 95% confidence interval, the Z value is 1.96. Multiply the SE calculated in step 1 by 1.96 to find the ME.
03

Calculate 95% Confidence Interval

A confidence interval can be calculated using the formula: CI = mean ± ME. The mean given in the problem is 3.1. Add and subtract the ME calculated in step 2 from the mean to find the confidence interval.
04

Interpret the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval calculated in step 3 is an estimate of the range in which the true population parameter (the length of a gribble) lies with a 95% level of confidence. It means, if the experiment were repeated many times, 95% of the intervals would contain the true population parameter.
05

State the Assumptions

To have confidence in our estimate, we must assume that the sample of gribbles is a simple random sample - it represents a portion of the entire population of gribbles without any bias. Also, we assume that the distribution of gribble length in the population is approximately normal.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
Standard Error (SE) is an important concept in statistics that helps us understand how much the sample mean of our data might differ from the actual population mean. It's like looking for clues on how accurate our sample is.
When dealing with gribbles, we have a sample of their lengths to work with. Knowing that the sample has a standard deviation of 0.72 and consists of 50 gribbles, we need to find the SE to gauge our estimate's precision. Here's the simple formula for SE:
  • SE = \(\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\)
where:
  • \(s\) is the standard deviation
  • \(n\) is the sample size
Plugging in the values, we calculate the SE for gribbles as \(\frac{0.72}{\sqrt{50}}\). This computation illustrates how the variability in our sample represents the possible variability in the population. With a smaller SE, our sample mean is likely a good approximation of the true population mean.
Confidence Interval
Confidence Intervals (CI) give us a range within which we expect the true mean of the population to lie. It's like saying, "We're fairly sure the real answer is somewhere between here and there", while acknowledging a bit of uncertainty.
For our gribble length example, we're using a 95% confidence interval. This is a common choice in statistics, often described as giving a high level of certainty. We use the previously calculated Standard Error, along with the Z value for 95% confidence (which is 1.96), to compute the Margin of Error and subsequently, the CI. For a mean of 3.1 mm:
  • CI = mean ± (Z * SE)
  • CI = 3.1 ± 1.96 * SE
This calculation results in a range around the mean, indicating that if we sampled multiple times, 95% of those confidence intervals would encompass the true mean length of all gribbles in the population.
Interpreting the CI means making a statement about our certainty in relation to the population mean. When checking the length of gribbles, we expect the true average length to fall within this interval, assuming our sampling and model assumptions hold true.
Margin of Error
Margin of Error (ME) describes the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. It tells us how much the measured results may differ from the actual population figure.
Imagine you're guessing the length of gribbles based on your sample. The ME gives you a buffer zone, letting you know how much your estimate could be off from reality due to chance. To calculate it, you multiply the Standard Error by the Z value corresponding to your confidence level. In our example of 95% confidence, this Z value is 1.96. The formula is straightforward:
  • ME = SE * Z
For the example: ME = SE * 1.96. This ME helps define the boundaries of our confidence interval. Remember, it's a crucial step that enhances the trustworthiness of our estimates by accounting for variability and potential sample deviation from the true population mean.
Using an appropriate ME ensures that assumptions about the population, such as normal distribution and random sampling, lead to a reliable estimate.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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