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Investigating the Width of a Confidence Interval Comparing Exercise 3.120 to Exercise \(3.121,\) you should have found that the confidence interval when utilizing the paired structure of the data was narrower than the confidence interval ignoring this structure (this will generally be the case, and is the primary reason for pairing). How else could we change the width of the confidence interval? More specifically, for each of the following changes, would the width of the confidence interval likely increase, decrease, or remain the same? (a) Increase the sample size. (b) Simulate more bootstrap samples. (c) Decrease the confidence level from \(99 \%\) to \(95 \%\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
Increasing the sample size will decrease the width of the confidence interval. Simulating more bootstrap samples will not change the confidence interval width. Decreasing the confidence level from 99% to 95% will decrease the width of the confidence interval.

Step by step solution

01

Analyzing the Impact of Sample Size on Confidence Interval Width

Increasing the sample size generally decreases the width of the confidence interval. This is because as you collect more data, you become more certain about the population parameter, and thus, the interval becomes narrower.
02

Analyzing the Impact of More Bootstrap Samples on Confidence Interval Width

Simulating more bootstrap samples would not change the width of the confidence interval. Bootstrap samples provide estimates of the population parameter, and while having more estimates does increase the precision of these estimates, it does not change the actual range of values that the parameter can take and thus would not affect the confidence interval width.
03

Analyzing the Impact of Changing Confidence Level on Confidence Interval Width

Decreasing the confidence level from 99% to 95% would decrease the width of the confidence interval. A 99% confidence interval is wider because it reflects a greater assurance that the population parameter lies within the interval, hence it covers a wider range of values. Reducing the confidence level to 95% implies being willing to accept a higher risk that the true parameter is not within the interval, which in turn allows the width of the interval to be narrower.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size Impact on Confidence Interval
When studying the intricacies of confidence intervals, understanding the role of sample size is fundamental. An increase in sample size leads to a more precise estimate of the population parameter, which consequently reduces the width of the confidence interval. This phenomenon occurs because a larger sample provides more information about the population, making it possible to estimate the parameter more accurately.

The principle behind this is rooted in the central limit theorem, which states that as sample size grows, the sampling distribution of the sample mean becomes more normally distributed and its standard error decreases. Since the width of a confidence interval is proportional to the standard deviation (or standard error) of the sample, a smaller standard error from a larger sample size results in a tighter interval.

In practical terms, this means that to increase precision in statistical analysis, researchers often aim to use as large a sample as possible, within logistical and financial constraints. For instance, if a study with 100 participants yields a certain confidence interval, increasing the number of participants to 200 might narrow that interval, offering a more precise indication of the true effect or value in the population.
Bootstrap Sampling
Bootstrap sampling is a resampling technique used to estimate statistics on a population by sampling a dataset with replacement. This method allows us to assess the variability of a sample statistic without requiring strong assumptions about the shape of the population distribution.

While more bootstrap samples enhance the stability and accuracy of the estimate, they do not directly alter the width of the confidence interval of the population parameter. This is because the variability inherent in the population is already captured by the initial sample, and generating more bootstrap samples primarily improves our understanding of the sample's own variability rather than the population's.

It's important to note that bootstrap samples are particularly useful when the sample size is too small to rely on asymptotic normality or when the underlying distribution is unknown or not normal. In these cases, bootstrap methods provide a straightforward way to construct confidence intervals and perform other statistical inferences with minimal assumptions.
Confidence Level Adjustment
Adjusting the confidence level directly affects the width of a confidence interval. A higher confidence level means a wider interval, reflecting greater certainty that the true population parameter lies within the range. Conversely, lowering the confidence level, as in changing from 99% to 95%, reduces the interval's width.

This adjustment can be likened to a trade-off between certainty and precision. At a 99% confidence level, we are 99% sure that the true parameter is inside our specified range, but to achieve this high level of confidence, we must accept a less precise estimate. Dropping to a 95% confidence level signifies a willingness to accept a 5% chance that the true parameter might not be captured by the interval, but as a compensation, we obtain a narrower and more precise range.

To summarize, selecting a confidence level is a decision made based on how much risk one is willing to accept. In fields requiring high precision over certainty, such as manufacturing or quality control, a 95% confidence level might be preferred, resulting in narrower intervals that are sufficient for making informed decisions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Give the correct notation for the quantity described and give its value. Proportion of US adults who own a cell phone. In a survey of 1006 US adults in \(2014,90 \%\) said they had a cell phone. \(^{7}\)

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Have You Ever Been Arrested? According to a recent study of 7335 young people in the US, \(30 \%\) had been arrested \(^{28}\) for a crime other than a traffic violation by the age of 23. Crimes included such things as vandalism, underage drinking, drunken driving, shoplifting, and drug possession. (a) Is the \(30 \%\) a parameter or a statistic? Use the correct notation. (b) Use the information given to estimate a parameter, and clearly define the parameter being estimated. (c) The margin of error for the estimate in part (b) is \(0.01 .\) Use this information to give a range of plausible values for the parameter. (d) Given the margin of error in part (c), if we asked all young people in the US if they have ever been arrested, is it likely that the actual proportion is less than \(25 \% ?\)

Florida Lakes Florida has over 7700 lakes. \(^{12}\) We wish to estimate the correlation between the pH levels of all Florida lakes and the mercury levels of fish in the lakes. We see in Data 2.4 on page 71 that the correlation between these two variables for a sample of \(n=53\) of the lakes is -0.575 . (a) Give notation for the quantity we are estimating, notation for the quantity we use to make the estimate, and the value of the best estimate. (b) Why is an estimate necessary here? What would we have to do to calculate the exact value of the quantity we are estimating?

Are Female Rats More Compassionate Than Male Rats? Exercise 3.88 describes a study in which rats showed compassion by freeing a trapped rat. In the study, all six of the six female rats showed compassion by freeing the trapped rat while 17 of the 24 male rats did so. Use the results of this study to give a best estimate for the difference in proportion of rats showing compassion, between female rats and male rats. Then use StatKey or other technology to estimate the standard error \(^{44}\) and use it to compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in proportions. Use the interval to determine whether it is plausible that male and female rats are equally compassionate (i.e., that the difference in proportions is zero). The data are available in the dataset CompassionateRats.

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