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Quebec vs Texas Secession In Example 6.4 on page 360 we analyzed a poll of 800 Quebecers, in which \(28 \%\) thought that the province of Quebec should separate from Canada. Another poll of 500 Texans found that \(18 \%\) thought that the state of Texas should separate from the United States. \({ }^{51}\) (a) In the sample of 800 people, about how many Quebecers thought Quebec should separate from Canada? In the sample of 500 , how many Texans thought Texas should separate from the US? (b) In these two samples, what is the pooled proportion of Texans and Quebecers that want to separate? (c) Can we conclude that the two population proportions differ? Use a two- tailed test and interpret the result.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Approximately 224 Quebecers and 90 Texans support separation. b) The pooled proportion of supporters is approximately 0.234. c) The result of the two-tailed test will indicate if there is a significant difference between the two population proportions.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the number of supporters

Multiply the total number of people from each sample by the percentage that support secession. For Quebec, it would be \( 800 * 0.28 \) and for Texas, it would be \( 500 * 0.18 \). Calculate these values to get the number of supporters.
02

Calculate the pooled proportion

The pooled proportion is obtained by adding the number of supporters from both samples and dividing by the total sample size. The formula is \( \frac{{\text{{number of Quebec supporters}} + \text{{number of Texas supporters}}}}{{\text{{total Quebec sample size}} + \text{{total Texas sample size}}}} \). Calculate this to get the pooled proportion.
03

Perform a two-tailed test

A two-tailed test is used to determine if two population proportions are different. The null hypothesis assumes that both proportions are the same. Using a standard statistical testing approach, calculate and compare a Z-score to a critical Z value (usually 1.96 for a 95% confidence level). If the calculated Z-score is greater than the critical Z value, reject the null hypothesis, indicating a significant difference between the two proportions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Secession Polling
Secession polling refers to the process of surveying a group of individuals within a region or state to determine their interest or support for the idea of that region or state becoming independent from the larger political body to which it currently belongs. As demonstrated in the exercise, polls were conducted in Quebec and Texas to measure the percentage of the population in favor of secession.

This type of polling is significant because it captures the sentiments and opinions of the populace regarding political autonomy and sovereignty. The results can have real political implications, influencing decisions made by leaders, informing public debate, and potentially leading towards referendums or legislative actions.
Two-tailed Test
A two-tailed test is a statistical test used to determine if there is a difference between two population proportions in either direction (greater than or less than). Unlike a one-tailed test, which only looks for an effect in one specific direction, a two-tailed test considers both possibilities of deviation from the null hypothesis.

In the context of our exercise, a two-tailed test is appropriate because we are interested in finding out whether there is any difference between the proportions of Quebecers and Texans supporting secession, regardless of which proportion is larger. The test compares the observed difference to what would be expected by random chance alone. If the observed difference is sufficiently large, it is deemed statistically significant, leading us to reject the null hypothesis that there's no difference between the population proportions.
Pooled Proportion
The pooled proportion is a combined measure used in statistics to estimate the overall proportion of a certain characteristic within two or more groups. It is calculated by taking the weighted average of the proportions from each group. In our exercise, the number of supporters in both Quebec and Texas is combined, and then divided by the total number of people polled.

This measure is utilized especially in hypothesis testing when comparing two proportions. By pooling data, we gain a common estimate of the characteristic under investigation which allows for a more powerful test of the null hypothesis, which states that there is no difference between the population proportions.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a term used to describe whether the result of a statistical test is unlikely to have occurred by random chance, given a specified significance level. The level, often set at 0.05 or 5% risk of concluding a difference exists when there is none, sets the threshold for rejecting the null hypothesis. In simpler terms, if a test result is statistically significant, it means there is enough evidence to suggest that the observed effect or difference is real and not due to random fluctuation in the data.

In the secession polling exercise, if the Z-score obtained from the two-tailed test exceeds the critical value at the chosen significance level, we have enough justification to conclude that there is a statistically significant difference between the population proportions of Quebecers and Texans who support secession.

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