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91Ó°ÊÓ

(a) Find the relevant sample proportions in each group and the pooled proportion. (b) Complete the hypothesis test using the normal distribution and show all details. Test whether males are less likely than females to support a ballot initiative, if \(24 \%\) of a random sample of 50 males plan to vote yes on the initiative and \(32 \%\) of a random sample of 50 females plan to vote ves.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The first step included calculating the sample proportions for males and females, \(0.24\) and \(0.32\) respectively, and the pooled proportion \(0.28\). The null and alternative hypotheses were set up to test whether males are less likely to vote 'yes'. The test statistic was calculated and checked its distribution. The conclusion was drawn based on the p-value from the normal distribution, which could suggest that males are less likely to support the ballot initiative than females, if the p-value is small enough.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the sample proportions and the pooled proportion

Start with calculating the sample proportion of each group. For males, it's \(24 \%\) of 50 males, which is 12. For females, it's \(32 \%\) of 50 females, which is 16. Divide these numbers by the respective sample sizes to get the sample proportions: \(p_m = 12/50 = 0.24\) for males and \(p_f = 16/50 = 0.32\) for females. Now, calculate the pooled proportion. Pooled proportion \(p\) is the total number of 'successes' (yes votes) divided by the total sample size. Therefore, \(p = (12 + 16) / (50 + 50) = 0.28\).
02

Set up the null and alternative hypothesis

The null hypothesis \(H_0\) will assume no difference between the two proportions: \(p_m = p_f\). The alternative hypothesis \(H_1\) is that the proportion of males is less than the proportion of females: \(p_m < p_f\).
03

Calculate the test statistic and check its distribution

The test statistic for comparing two proportions is given by \((\hat{p}_m-\hat{p}_f)/sqrt{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p}) * (1/n_m + 1/n_f)}\) where \(n_m\), \(n_f\) are sample sizes of males and females respectively. Here, \(\hat{p}_m\), \(\hat{p}_f\) are the observed sample proportions and \(\hat{p}\) is the pooled proportion. Hence \((0.24 - 0.32) / sqrt{0.28*(1-0.28)*(1/50 + 1/50)}\). This will be normally distributed if the sample size is large enough (all the expected numbers of successes and failures are larger than 5). In this case it is.
04

Determine the p-value and draw conclusion

Calculate the p-value. This is the probability of observing the calculated test statistic or lower, under the null hypothesis. If the p-value is less than the significance level (commonly 0.05), the null hypothesis is rejected. The exact p-value can be found using statistical software or normal distribution tables. If the value is small, it suggests evidence in support of the alternative hypothesis, indicating that males are less likely to support the ballot initiative than females.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportions
Understanding sample proportions is a key aspect of hypothesis testing. A sample proportion is the percentage of a specific trait or outcome found in a sample group. For example, when evaluating the support for a ballot initiative among males and females, we determine the proportion of each group that supports the initiative.

For example, if 12 out of 50 males plan to vote yes, the sample proportion of males (\(p_m\)) is calculated as \(\frac{12}{50} = 0.24\). Similarly, if 16 out of 50 females plan to vote yes, the sample proportion of females (\(p_f\)) is \(\frac{16}{50} = 0.32\).

These proportions allow us to understand how a part of the sample behaves, offering insight into potential differences between groups. In hypothesis testing, comparing these sample proportions helps assess if there is a statistically significant difference between groups.
Pooled Proportion
The pooled proportion is used when comparing two samples to see if there's a statistically significant difference overall. It's a method that combines the successes from two distinct populations into one proportion, providing a more generalized view of the data.

To compute the pooled proportion, we add the number of successes from each sample and divide by the total number of observations. In the ballot initiative example, where 12 males and 16 females support the initiative, the pooled proportion \(\hat{p}\) is calculated as:
  • Total successes = 12 (males) + 16 (females) = 28
  • Total sample size = 50 (males) + 50 (females) = 100
  • Pooled proportion \(\hat{p} = \frac{28}{100} = 0.28\)
Using the pooled proportion helps adjust for any variations in sample sizes or variances, giving a clearer picture when performing hypothesis tests on proportions.
p-value Calculation
The p-value is a crucial part of hypothesis testing as it helps determine the statistical significance of the test results. It essentially measures how likely it is to observe the obtained results under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.

When calculating a p-value, you'll first compute a test statistic. For proportions, the test statistic might be calculated as \(\frac{\hat{p}_m - \hat{p}_f}{\sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})(\frac{1}{n_m} + \frac{1}{n_f})}}\), where \(\hat{p}_m\) and \(\hat{p}_f\) are the sample proportions, and \(n_m\) and \(n_f\) are the sample sizes.

Using the above formula, you'll compare the observed test statistic to a standard normal distribution to find the p-value. If the p-value is less than the significance level, typically 0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected. In our case, if the p-value is very low, it suggests strong evidence that males are statistically less likely to support the initiative than females. This process solidifies the conclusion drawn from the observed sample data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Is a Normal Distribution Appropriate? In Exercises 6.13 and \(6.14,\) indicate whether the Central Limit Theorem applies so that the sample proportions follow a normal distribution. In each case below, does the Central Limit Theorem apply? (a) \(n=80\) and \(p=0.1\) (b) \(n=25\) and \(p=0.8\) (c) \(n=50\) and \(p=0.4\) (d) \(n=200\) and \(p=0.7\)

A sample with \(n=18, \bar{x}=87.9,\) and \(s=10.6\)

What Percent of Houses Are Owned vs }\end{array}\( Rented? The 2010 US Census \)^{4}\( reports that, of all the nation's occupied housing units, \)65.1 \%\( are owned by the occupants and \)34.9 \%$ are rented. If we take random samples of 50 occupied housing units and compute the sample proportion that are owned for each sample, what will be the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of sample proportions?

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Data 1.3 on page 10 discusses a study designed to test whether applying a metal tag is detrimental to a penguin, as opposed to applying an electronic tag. One variable examined is the date penguins arrive at the breeding site, with later arrivals hurting breeding success. Arrival date is measured as the number of days after November 1st. Mean arrival date for the 167 times metal- tagged penguins arrived was December 7 th ( 37 days after November 1 st ) with a standard deviation of 38.77 days, while mean arrival date for the 189 times electronic-tagged penguins arrived at the breeding site was November 21 st (21 days after November 1 st ) with a standard deviation of \(27.50 .\) Do these data provide evidence that metal-tagged penguins have a later mean arrival time? Show all details of the test.

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