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Use the normal distribution to find a confidence interval for a difference in proportions \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) given the relevant sample results. Give the best estimate for \(p_{1}-p_{2},\) the margin of error, and the confidence interval. Assume the results come from random samples. A \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) given that \(\hat{p}_{1}=0.20\) with \(n_{1}=50\) and \(\hat{p}_{2}=0.32\) with \(n_{2}=100\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The best estimate for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) is -0.12. The margin of error is approximately 0.149. The \(90\%\) confidence interval for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) is approximately \([-0.269, 0.029]\).

Step by step solution

01

Compute the estimated difference

First compute the estimated difference of proportions using the formula \(\hat{p}_{1} - \hat{p}_{2}\). Given \(\hat{p}_{1} = 0.20\) and \(\hat{p}_{2} = 0.32\), we subtract \(\hat{p}_{2}\) from \(\hat{p}_{1}\) which results in \(-0.12\).
02

Compute the standard error

The standard error can be calculated using the formula \(\sqrt{ \left( \frac{\hat{p}_{1}(1-\hat{p}_{1})}{n_{1}} \right) + \left( \frac{\hat{p}_{2}(1-\hat{p}_{2})}{n_{2}} \right)}\). Here, \(\hat{p}_{1} = 0.20\), \(n_{1} = 50\), \(\hat{p}_{2} = 0.32\), and \(n_{2} = 100\). Plugging these into the formula gives approximately 0.0906.
03

Compute the margin of error

Next, the margin of error is calculated for a \(90\%\) confidence interval. Recall that a \(90\%\) confidence interval corresponds to 1.645 standard deviations for a normal distribution (the Z-score for \(90\%\) confidence). The margin of error is calculated as the product of the Z-score and the standard error, that is, \(1.645 \times 0.0906\), which gives approximately 0.149.
04

Compute the confidence interval

The confidence interval is computed as the estimated difference of proportions \( \pm \) the margin of error. Here, that is \(-0.12 \pm 0.149\). This produces a \(90\%\) confidence interval for \(p_{1} - p_{2}\), which is approximately \([-0.269, 0.029]\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
When conducting statistical analyses, understanding the normal distribution is essential. The normal distribution, which is often represented by a bell-shaped curve, describes how the values of a variable are distributed. It is symmetric about the mean, meaning most data points are clustered around the central peak and the probabilities for values farther from the mean taper off equally in both directions.

For example, take the average height of a population. Most individuals' heights will be close to the average (the peak of the bell curve), with fewer individuals being extremely tall or extremely short (the tails of the curve). In the context of confidence intervals for differences in proportions, we use the normal distribution to determine the critical value or Z-score. The Z-score represents the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. A Z-score helps in creating intervals that capture the true population parameter with a certain level of confidence, typically 90%, 95%, or 99%.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is an essential concept in statistics that quantifies the uncertainty in an estimate. It provides a range above and below the point estimate that likely contains the population parameter we are estimating. Calculated from the standard error and the critical value from the normal distribution, the margin of error widens or narrows based on our desired level of confidence.

The margin of error is often presented in survey results or polls and plays a crucial role in understanding the precision of an estimate. It's affected by factors such as the sample size and variability in the data. For instance, with larger sample sizes, the margin of error typically decreases because we have more information about the population, and our estimate is likely more accurate.
Sample Size
Sample size (1) refers to the number of observations or measurements taken from a population for the purposes of a statistical estimate. It's a determinant factor in calculating the margin of error and standard error, impacting the accuracy and precision of our statistical estimates. When the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases, leading to a narrower confidence interval.

Larger samples tend to more closely represent the population, which helps in achieving more reliable estimates of characteristics such as proportions or means. However, it's also important to ensure that the sample is random and representative to avoid introducing bias into our estimates regardless of the sample size.
Standard Error
Standard error measures the amount of variability or dispersion of the sample statistic from the population parameter. It is crucial in constructing confidence intervals as it gives us an idea of how far off our sample estimate might be from the true population value. The standard error is determined by the sample size and the population variability; larger sample sizes and less variability result in a smaller standard error.

When we talk about the standard error in the context of differences in proportions, we're often dealing with the variability of the difference between two independent sample proportions. Calculating the standard error for the difference in proportions involves pooling the variability from both samples considered, taking into account their respective sizes and variability.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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