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Tongue Piercing May Speed Tooth Loss. Researchers Say" is the headline of an article that appeared in the San Luis Obispo Tribune (June 5,2002 ). The article describes a study of 52 young adults with pierced tongues. The rescarchers found receding gums, which can lead to tooth loss, in 18 of the participants. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of young adults with pierced tongues who have receding gums. What assumptions must be made for use of the \(z\) confidence interval to be appropriate?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sample proportion is given by \(\hat{p} = \frac{18}{52}\). The 95% confidence interval is found using the formula \(\hat{p} \pm E\) where E is defined as \(1.96\sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{52}}\). The assumptions for the validity of the \(z\) interval are a random sample and an approximately normal distribution.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Sample Proportion

First calculate the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\), which is the proportion of young adults in the sample with receding gums. This is calculated as \(\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} = \frac{18}{52}\), where \(x\) is the number of successful outcomes and \(n\) is the size of the sample.
02

Calculate the Margin of Error

Next, calculate the margin of error (E) using the formula \(E = z \sqrt{(\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n})}\) where z is the z-score corresponding to the desired degree of confidence (for 95% confidence interval, z-score is 1.96).
03

Calculate the Confidence Interval

Use the margin of error to calculate the confidence interval. The interval is \(\hat{p} \pm E\). This will give an interval within which the proportion of all young adults with pierced tongues who have receding gums lies with \(95 \%\) confidence.
04

State the Assumptions for \(z\) Interval

Assumptions for use of \(z\) interval: 1) The sample should be random. 2) The distribution should be approximately normal. This is usually the case when \(n\hat{p} > 5\) and\(n(1-\hat{p}) > 5\) where \(n\) is the sample size and \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Sample Proportion
The sample proportion is an essential concept when dealing with statistics and surveys. It represents the fraction of individuals in a sample who exhibit a particular characteristic. In our exercise, the sample proportion (\(\hat{p}\)) is the ratio of young adults with receding gums to the total number of participants with pierced tongues. To find this, we divide the number of people with receding gums (18) by the total sample size (52). Thus, \(\hat{p} = \frac{18}{52}\). This proportion gives us a snapshot of the larger population's characteristics based on our sample.
What is Margin of Error?
The margin of error is a critical value in statistics that provides an estimate of the likely range within which the true population measure lies. It accounts for sampling variability and expresses how much the sample proportion may vary from the actual population proportion. For a confidence interval, the margin of error (E) is calculated with the formula \[E = z \sqrt{\left( \frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n} \right)}\]where:
  • \( z \) is the z-score associated with the confidence level (1.96 for 95% confidence),
  • \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, and
  • \( n \) is the sample size.
The margin of error helps define the range of the confidence interval, which indicates the uncertainty around the sample proportion estimate.
The Role of Z-score
The z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. In the context of a confidence interval, it's used to determine the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. For a 95% confidence level, the z-score is 1.96. This means we are 95% confident that the actual proportion lies within the calculated confidence interval. The higher the confidence level, the larger the z-score, which widens the confidence interval, indicating greater uncertainty. By using the z-score, statisticians can ensure that the calculated interval is likely to contain the true population proportion.
Understanding Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is a fundamental concept in statistics, often referred to as the bell curve due to its shape. It's characterized by its symmetry around the mean, with most of the data points clustering around a central high point. In the context of confidence intervals, normal distribution is vital because many statistical methods, including the use of z-scores, presuppose normality. For the confidence interval to be valid:
  • The sample data should ideally follow a normal distribution.
  • This becomes approximately true if conditions like \( n\hat{p} > 5 \) and \( n(1-\hat{p}) > 5 \) are satisfied.
Importance of Random Sample
A random sample serves as the foundation for reliable statistical analysis. It ensures that each individual in a population has an equal probability of being chosen, eliminating bias and yielding a sample that accurately reflects the population. In this exercise, one of the critical assumptions for constructing a \( z \) confidence interval is that the sample is random. Without this, our findings might not be generalizable to the broader population. Random sampling enhances the validity and reliability of statistical conclusions, making it a crucial component in the study design.

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