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An article in the New york Times (March 2, 1994) reported that people who suffer cardiac arrest in New York City have only a 1 in 100 chance of survival. Using probability notation, an equivalent statement would be \(P(\) survival \()=.01\) for people who suffer a cardiac arrest in New York City (The artide attributed this poor survival rate to factors common in large cities: traffic congestion and the difficulty of finding victims in large buildings. Similar studies in smaller cities showed higher survival rates.) a. Give a relative frequency interpretation of the given probability. b. The research that was the basis for the New York Times article was a study of 2329 consecutive cardiac arrests in New York City. To justify the " 1 in 100 chance of survival" statement, how many of the 2329 cardiac arrest sufferers do you think survived? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. In any group of 100 people who suffer a cardiac arrest in New York City, on average, only 1 would survive. b. About 23 out of the 2329 people who suffered cardiac arrests would be expected to have survived, based on the given probability.

Step by step solution

01

Relative Frequency Interpretation

Relative frequency is the fraction of times a result occurs in a statistical experiment. In this case, the result we are interested in is survival after a cardiac arrest in New York City. The probability of this event is given as 0.01, or 1 in 100. Therefore, a relative frequency interpretation of this probability would imply that, in any generic group of 100 people who suffer a cardiac arrest in New York City, on average, only 1 would survive.
02

Applying Probability to Determine Number of Survivors

The probability of survival after cardiac arrest in New York City is given as 0.01, which means that, on average, 1 in 100 sufferers survive. Hence, to estimate the number of survivors from 2329 cardiac arrest sufferers, multiply the total number of sufferers by the probability of survival: \( 2329 \times 0.01 \).
03

Calculating Number of Survivors

The calculation \( 2329 \times 0.01 \) yields 23.29. However, since we cannot have a fractional count of individuals, we round this down to the nearest whole number, which is 23. Thus, based on the probability given, we would expect that approximately 23 out of the 2329 people who suffered cardiac arrests would have survived.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Relative Frequency
Relative frequency is a way to understand probability in terms of real-world occurrences. It measures how often a specific event happens compared to the total number of experiments or trials. In the context of the New York Times article, we use relative frequency to interpret the survival rate of cardiac arrest sufferers in New York City. With a probability of 0.01, it suggests that, for every 100 people experiencing cardiac arrest, about 1 person survives on average. This method provides a practical interpretation of probability, giving us insight into what we can expect in reality during a statistical experiment, like the study conducted in the article.

The main takeaway from relative frequency is its grounding in actual data. It emphasizes not theoretical predictions, but outcomes based on real trials, making it especially relevant in fields such as medicine and public health. Understanding this concept helps in predicting future events based on past data, ensuring decisions are based on reliable statistics.
Statistical Experiment
A statistical experiment refers to any procedure that generates data through observed outcomes. In our example, the study of cardiac arrest events in New York City represents a statistical experiment. Researchers collected data from 2329 incidents to establish a survival probability.

When we conduct a statistical experiment, we aim to observe occurrences, gather evidence, and draw conclusions. Each trial, like experiencing cardiac arrest, is a part of this larger experiment. The overall outcome helps researchers understand patterns and make predictions.

Such experiments play a crucial role in determining probabilities because they provide evidence through observed frequencies. They help in verifying hypotheses with real-world occurrences, which is especially important in high-stakes fields like healthcare where accuracy and data-backed insights are vital.
Survival Rate
The survival rate refers to the proportion of individuals who live through an event or period, relative to those who experience it. In the given scenario, the survival rate for cardiac arrests in New York City is expressed as a probability of 0.01, or 1%. This implies that out of every 100 individuals who suffer a cardiac arrest, only one survives.

The low survival rate attributed in the article reflects challenges specific to large urban environments, such as traffic and accessibility issues. Examining survival rates allows public health officials and medical professionals to identify problem areas and seek improvements to increase these rates.

Understanding survival rates is crucial because it directly impacts strategies in medical response and emergency services. By knowing the survival probability, resources can be better allocated to improve outcomes for individuals experiencing similar emergencies.
Probability Notation
Probability notation is a mathematical way to express the likelihood of an occurrence. In our exercise, the probability of surviving a cardiac arrest in New York City is noted as \(P(\text{survival}) = 0.01\). This notation succinctly communicates the chance of survival, making it easier to understand and calculate probabilities.

The letter \(P\) denotes probability, while the information inside the parentheses specifies the event, which in this case is 'survival'. The notation serves as a common language for mathematicians and statisticians, providing clarity and precision.

Thorough understanding of probability notation is fundamental for interpreting statistical data and conducting further analyses. It allows for clear communication of probabilities in research and helps in making sound predictions and decisions based on those calculated chances.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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