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Recent high-profile legal cases have many people reevaluating the jury system. Many believe that juries in criminal trials should be able to convict on less than a unanimous vote. To assess support for this idea, investigators asked each individual in a random sample of Californians whether they favored allowing conviction by a 10-2 verdict in criminal cases not involving the death penalty. The Associated Press (San Luis Obispo TelegramTribune, September 13,1995 ) reported that \(71 \%\) supported the \(10-2\) verdict. Suppose that the sample size for this survey was \(n=900\). Compute and interpret a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of Californians who favor the \(10-2\) verdict.

Short Answer

Expert verified
After the calculations, we have our 99% confidence interval for the proportion of Californians who support the 10-2 verdict. This means we are 99% confident that the true proportion of Californians who support the 10-2 verdict lies within this interval.

Step by step solution

01

Compute the Standard Error

First, we need to compute the standard error (SE) of the proportion. The formula for the standard error of a proportion is: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \] Substituting \( \hat{p} = 0.71 \) and \( n = 900 \), we find the standard error.
02

Find the z-score

Next, we find the z-score that corresponds to the desired confidence level. For a 99% confidence interval, the z-score is about 2.576.
03

Compute the Confidence Interval

Now, we can compute the 99% confidence interval for the proportion. The formula for the interval is: \[ \hat{p} \pm z \cdot SE \] Substituting the values we found earlier, we can compute the confidence interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
When estimating population parameters, such as proportions, understanding the standard error (SE) is crucial. The standard error measures the variability or spread of sampling distribution of a statistic. Think of it as an indicator of how far we can expect the sample proportion to differ from the true population proportion.

Calculated as the square root of the variance, the standard error for a proportion is obtained using the formula: \[\begin{equation}SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\end{equation}\]In the given exercise, the standard error is calculated based on the sample proportion (\(\hat{p}\)) of Californians who support the 10-2 verdict and the sample size (\(n\)). Intuitively, this gives us a sense of how 'confident' we can be about our estimate from the sample: A smaller SE means a more precise estimate.
Sample Size
The sample size (\(n\)) plays a pivotal role in statistical analysis. The reliability and validity of the statistics derived from the data are deeply impacted by the size of your sample. In the context of confidence intervals, larger sample sizes tend to produce more accurate estimates, as they reduce the standard error.

In the given problem, the sample size of 900 offers a solid foundation for calculating a reliable estimate of the proportion of Californians who favor the 10-2 jury verdict. The larger the sample size, the closer we are likely to get to the real proportion in the entire population. Fundamentally, a good sample size allows for smaller standard errors, leading to narrower confidence intervals, which implies more precise estimates.
Z-score
A z-score is a statistical measure that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values, measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. When constructing confidence intervals for proportions, we use the z-score to determine how many standard errors away from the sample proportion we should go to capture the center of the confidence interval.

For the 99% confidence interval in our exercise, we reference the standard normal distribution to find a z-score of approximately 2.576. This high z-score reflects the need for more extreme coverage to ensure that 99% of the time, the interval will capture the true population parameter. Z-scores vary with the confidence level: a 95% confidence interval typically uses 1.96 for the z-score, while a 90% confidence interval uses approximately 1.645.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a determination about the non-random occurrence of an observed effect. It gives researchers confidence that their findings are not due to chance alone. In the case of our confidence interval, a 99% level of confidence implies that we would expect the true proportion to fall within our calculated interval 99 times out of 100 if we were to take repeated samples from the population.

Statistical significance is closely tied to the confidence level and hence impacts the width of the confidence interval. A higher confidence level, while giving more 'confidence' that the interval includes the population parameter, leads to a wider interval. This is balanced against practical considerations of precision and the cost of data collection; as such confidence levels such as 90%, 95%, or 99% are commonly chosen based on the context and consequences of decision-making.

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