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91Ó°ÊÓ

Past experience has indicated that the true response rate is \(40 \%\) when individuals are approached with a request to fill out and return a particular questionnaire in a stamped and addressed envelope. An investigator believes that if the person distributing the questionnaire is stigmatized in some obvious way, potential respondents would feel sorry for the distributor and thus tend to respond at a rate higher than \(40 \%\). To investigate this theory, a distributor is fitted with an eye patch. Of the 200 questionnaires distributed by this individual, 109 were returned. Does this strongly suggest that the response rate in this situation exceeds the rate in the past? State and test the appropriate hypotheses at significance level \(.05\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
Strong evidence suggests that the response rate with the new approach is higher than 40%. This is demonstrated by the calculated Z-value of 4.52, which exceeds the critical value of 1.645 at a significance level of 0.05.

Step by step solution

01

Set up the null and alternative hypotheses

The null hypothesis will be that the response rate has not increased beyond 40%. This is written as H0: p = 0.4\nThe alternative hypothesis is that the response rate has increased. This is written as H1: p > 0.4
02

Calculate the sample proportion

The sample proportion (p-hat) is calculated as the number of successes (responses received) divided by the number of trials (total questionnaires distributed). Thus, \( p-hat = \frac{109}{200} = 0.545 \)
03

Calculate the test statistic

In order to determine whether or not to reject the null hypothesis, we will use a test statistic. A common test statistic for the population proportion is 'Z', which is calculated as follows: \n\( Z = \frac{p-hat - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0 * (1 - p_0)}{n}}} \) \n where p-0 is the population proportion under the null hypothesis, n is the sample size, and p-hat is the sample proportion. Substituting the known values, we find \( Z = \frac{0.545 - 0.4}{\sqrt{\frac{0.4 * (1 - 0.4)}{200}}} = 4.52 \)
04

Make a decision about the null hypothesis

Now, we should determine the critical value for a significance level of 0.05 for a one-sided test. Using standard statistical tables, we find that the critical value is approximately Z = 1.645. If our calculated Z-value is larger than this critical value, we reject our null hypothesis. As our Z-value (4.52) is larger than 1.645, we reject our null hypothesis and conclude with evidence that the stigmatization of the distributor did indeed increase the response rate beyond 40%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses
When we perform hypothesis testing, we begin by stating two contradictory claims about a population parameter. The null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) represents the status quo or the baseline that we assume to be true before we collect any data. For instance, in our example, the null hypothesis is that the new distribution method (with an eye patch) doesn’t affect the questionnaire return rate, which remains at 40%. In formal terms, that's written as \( H_0: p = 0.4 \
\
\).
On the flip side, the alternative hypothesis (\( H_1 \) or \( H_a \)) represents a new theory or claim that we aim to support, typically indicating that there is an effect or difference. In the given problem, the researcher posits that the response rate will increase thanks to the stigmatization associated with the eye patch. Mathematically, this is stated as \( H_1: p > 0.4 \
\
\). It's important to choose the hypotheses carefully and ensure they're mutually exclusive; in other words, if one is true, the other must be false. A good hypothesis test aims to gather enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, often denoted as \( p\text{-hat} \), is a very useful statistic in hypothesis testing, especially when the underlying question revolves around proportions or likelihoods within a population. It is calculated by dividing the number of 'successes' observed in the sample by the total number of observations in the sample.

For the example under discussion, the success is receiving a returned questionnaire; thus, out of the 200 distributed, 109 were returned, resulting in a sample proportion: \( p\text{-hat} = \frac{109}{200} = 0.545 \). This empirical evidence from the sample is then utilized to analyze the likelihood of the null hypothesis being true. If the sample proportion greatly differs from the null hypothesis value, it can lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis.
Test Statistic
In the realm of hypothesis testing, the test statistic is a critical value that allows us to decide whether our sample data provides enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. It’s essentially a standardized value that measures the degree of deviation of the sample statistic from the null hypothesis.

In the context of our example that deals with proportions, the test statistic can be a Z-score, which is calculated using this formula: \( Z = \frac{p\text{-hat} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0 * (1 - p_0)}{n}}} \), where \( p_0 \) represents the proportion as per the null hypothesis, \( n \) is the sample size, and \( p\text{-hat} \) is the sample proportion. After calculations, a Z-score of 4.52 indicates a significant difference from the hypothesized population proportion. The magnitude of the test statistic plays a pivotal role in determining the probability of observing our sample result (or something more extreme) if the null hypothesis were true.
Significance Level
The significance level, denoted by \( \alpha \), is a threshold that we set for deciding whether to reject the null hypothesis. It’s the probability of making a Type I error, which occurs if we incorrectly reject a true null hypothesis. Common standard significance levels include 0.05, 0.01, and 0.10.

In hypothesis testing, once we've calculated the test statistic, we compare it against critical values corresponding to the chosen significance level. These critical values are the cutoff points that determine the boundaries of the regions where we would reject \( H_0 \). If our test statistic falls into this rejection region, we have sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis. In our eye patch questionnaire example, by using \( \alpha = 0.05 \) for a one-sided test, the critical Z-value is approximately 1.645. Since our calculated Z-value of 4.52 exceeds this, we reject the null hypothesis, implying that the data does suggest – with a high level of confidence – an increase in the response rate.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Students at the Akademia Podlaka conducted an experiment to determine whether the Belgium-minted Euro coin was equally likely to land heads up or tails up. Coins were spun on a smooth surface, and in 250 spins, 140 landed with the heads side up (New Scientist, January 4 , 2002 ). Should the students interpret this result as convincing evidence that the proportion of the time the coin would land heads up is not .5? Test the relevant hypotheses using \(\alpha=.01 .\) Would your conclusion be different if a significance level of \(.05\) had been used? Explain.

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