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Teenagers (age 15 to 20 ) make up \(7 \%\) of the driving population. The article "More States Demand Teens Pass Rigorous Driving Tests" (San Luis Obispo Tribune, January 27,2000 ) described a study of auto accidents conducted by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. The Institute found that \(14 \%\) of the accidents studied involved teenage drivers. Suppose that this percentage was based on examining records from 500 randomly selected accidents. Does the study provide convincing evidence that the proportion of accidents involving teenage drivers differs from \(.07\), the proportion of teens in the driving population?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Unfortunately, the conclusion cannot be provided without an actual calculation. Use the Z-score obtained in Step 2 to find the p-value in standard normal distribution table and make a conclusion in Step 4 depending on whether the p-value is less than our chosen significance level, typically 0.05.

Step by step solution

01

Define hypotheses

The null hypothesis (H0) would be: The proportion of accidents involving teenagers is \(7\%\) i.e., \(p=0.07\). The alternative hypothesis (H1) would be: The proportion of accidents involving teenagers is not \(7\%\) i.e., \(p ≠ 0.07\).
02

Calculate the test statistic

Next we calculate the test statistic (Z score). We use the formula \(Z = (p̂ - p) / \sqrt{pq/n}\). Here \(p̂\) is the sample proportion, \(p\) is the population proportion, \(q\) is \(1-p\), and \(n\) is the sample size. Plugging values from our problem we get \(Z = (0.14 - 0.07) / \sqrt{(0.07 * (1 - 0.07) / 500)}\). Calculate this to obtain Z.
03

Find the p-value

Next, using a standard normal distribution (Z distribution), we find the probability of getting a value as extreme or more extreme than our calculated Z score (this is the p-value). Due to our test being two-sided (because our hypothesis is \(p ≠ 0.07\)), we calculate the two-tailed p-value.
04

Make a decision

Essentially, if the p-value is less than our chosen significance level (typically 0.05), we reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative. That is, we would conclude that the data provides convincing evidence that the proportion of accidents involving teenage drivers is different from \(7\%\).\nIf the p-value is not less than the significance level, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. That would mean our data does not provide convincing evidence that the proportion of accidents involving teenage drivers is different from \(7\%\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses
In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis (H_0) represents a statement of no effect or no difference. It is essentially the 'status quo' that you aim to challenge with your statistical evidence. In the context of the given exercise, the null hypothesis states that the proportion of car accidents involving teenagers (7%) is the same as the proportion of teenagers within the driving population.

The alternative hypothesis (H_1 or H_a), on the other hand, is the claim you want to test against the null hypothesis. It proposes that there is indeed an effect or a difference. In our exercise, the alternative hypothesis suggests that the actual proportion of accidents involving teenage drivers is different from 7%. This sets up the basis for comparison and guides the direction of the statistical test you would perform.
Test Statistic Calculation
The calculation of a test statistic is a critical step in hypothesis testing. It allows you to quantify the difference between a sample statistic and the null hypothesis value, considering how much variation we'd expect in the sample statistics if the null hypothesis were true. For proportion problems like the presented scenario, we use the Z test statistic for proportions, which is based on the standard normal distribution.

To calculate the test statistic (Z), we require the sample proportion (p̂), the hypothesized population proportion (p), and the sample size (n). The formula looks like this: \[Z = \frac{(\text{p̂} - \text{p})}{\text{sqrt}{(\text{pq}/\text{n})}}\] where q is the probability of not (p), or (1-p). The computed Z-score tells us how many standard deviations our sample proportion is from the hypothesized proportion. The further away from zero, the less likely it is that the sample came from a population where the null hypothesis is true.
P-value Interpretation
The p-value is a measure of the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of observing a test statistic equally or more extreme than the one calculated from your sample data, assuming the null hypothesis is true. If the p-value is small enough, typically less than the conventional alpha level of 0.05, it indicates that such an extreme result would be very unlikely under the null hypothesis.

In our case with a two-sided test (because we're checking if the proportion is not equal to 0.07), we look at both ends of the normal distribution. A low p-value would suggest that the proportion of accidents involving teenagers is statistically significantly different from the hypothesized 7%. It's important not to misconstrue the p-value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true or false; it is solely a measure of the evidence against the null hypothesis provided by the sample data.
Proportion Significance Test
When performing a proportion significance test, we're assessing whether the observed sample proportion significantly differs from a known population proportion, within a framework of variability due to chance. This test employs the Z-score and p-value methodology discussed earlier to draw conclusions about population proportions.

For our exercise involving teenage drivers, we compare the study's finding of 14% accident involvement against the 7% driving population benchmark. By calculating the test statistic and the p-value, we determine whether the result from the sample of 500 accidents could reasonably arise from random fluctuation, or if it suggests a true difference in proportions. Conclusively, if our p-value is lower than the significance level, we'd have evidence to claim that the proportion of accidents involving teenagers truly differs from the overall proportion of teenage drivers.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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