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Google Glass Google started selling Google Glass (a type of wearable technology that projects information onto the eye) in the United States in spring 2014 for \(\$ 1500\). A national poll reveals that out of 500 people sampled, nobody owned Google Glass. a. Find the sample proportion who don't own Google Glass and its standard error. b. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval, using the large-sample formula. Is it sensible to conclude that no one in the United States owns Google Glass?] c. Why is it not appropriate to use the ordinary large-sample confidence interval in part b? Use a more appropriate approach and interpret the result. d. Is it plausible to say that fewer than \(1 \%\) of the population own Google Glass? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sample proportion of non-owners is 1, with SE 0. The adjusted confidence interval suggests that very few, if any, own Google Glass. It's plausible that less than 1% of the population owns it.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Sample Proportion

The sample proportion of people who do not own Google Glass is determined by dividing the number of people who don't own it by the total number sampled. Since nobody in the sample of 500 people owns Google Glass, the proportion is:\[ \hat{p} = \frac{500}{500} = 1 \]
02

Find Standard Error

The standard error of the sample proportion is given by the formula:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \]Substitute the known values:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{1(0)}{500}} = 0 \]
03

Compute 95% Confidence Interval Using Large-Sample Formula

The large-sample 95% confidence interval for the proportion is computed as follows:\[ \hat{p} \pm z \times SE \]where \(z\) for a 95% confidence level is about 1.96:\[ CI = 1 \pm 1.96 \times 0 = (1, 1) \]This indicates that all individuals in the sample do not own Google Glass, but this confidence interval doesn't give useful information about the entire population.
04

Discuss Appropriateness of Large-Sample Formula

The large-sample confidence interval is inappropriate because it assumes the probability distribution is normal, requiring a non-zero proportion and larger sample size. Given \(\hat{p}=1\), it leads to an interval that doesn't cover any realistic range of the population.
05

Use Adjusted Approach - Wilson Score Interval

An alternative method is the Wilson score interval which is more appropriate for extreme proportions:\[ \tilde{p} = \frac{n \hat{p} + (z^2/2)}{n + z^2} = \frac{500 + 1.96^2/2}{500 + 1.96^2} \approx 0.995 \]\[ SE_{adj} = \sqrt{\frac{\tilde{p}(1 - \tilde{p})}{n + z^2}} \]\[ CI_{adj} = \tilde{p} \pm z\times SE_{adj} \approx (0.993, 1) \]This reveals that with high confidence, a very small proportion of people might own Google Glass.
06

Determine Plausibility of Ownership Being Less Than 1%

To claim that fewer than 1% own Google Glass, we refer to the more precise Wilson interval result. If the lower bound (0.993) from the confidence interval is above 0.01, it is plausible that less than 1% own Google Glass.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
In statistics, the sample proportion is a critical measure used to estimate the proportion of a characteristic within a population based on a sample. To calculate this, you simply divide the number of individuals in the sample who exhibit the characteristic by the total sample size.
The sample proportion is denoted by \( \hat{p} \).
For instance, in the Google Glass exercise, none of the 500 surveyed people owned Google Glass. Thus, the sample proportion of people who do not own it is:
  • Number of people without Google Glass = 500
  • Total sample size = 500
The sample proportion is:\[\hat{p} = \frac{500}{500} = 1\]This signifies that, in our sample, 100% do not own Google Glass. However, this figure only represents our sample and not necessarily the wider population. Understanding this distinction is critical in statistical inference since our goal is usually to infer conclusions about the entire population.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) provides insight into the precision of a sample statistic as a point estimate of a population parameter. For sample proportions, the standard error helps us gauge how much the sample proportion (\( \hat{p} \)) would differ from the true population proportion if we drew numerous samples. It's calculated using the formula for standard error of a sample proportion:\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\]In the given problem, with all 500 individuals sampled not owning Google Glass, our \( \hat{p} = 1 \).
Therefore, the standard error becomes:\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{1(0)}{500}} = 0\]This result indicates no variability in our sample proportion — everyone sampled fits the criterion of not owning Google Glass. However, such a perfect proportion doesn't portray realistic variability for the entire population, showing the limitations of using standard error for extreme proportions.
Wilson Score Interval
The Wilson score interval is a more accurate method for estimating confidence intervals, especially when dealing with extreme sample proportions (close to 0 or 1). Unlike the standard confidence interval, which might be misleading in these scenarios, Wilson's method adjusts the interval to account for the possibility of extreme values.
In the original problem discussed, using the large-sample confidence interval model led to a non-informative range due to \( SE = 0 \). The Wilson score model rectifies this by providing a smoothed approach through an adjusted sample proportion \( \tilde{p} \) and an adjusted standard error \( SE_{adj} \).\[\tilde{p} = \frac{n \hat{p} + (z^2/2)}{n + z^2}\]Here, solving gives:\[\tilde{p} \approx 0.995 \]Wilson's interval then calculates a confidence interval which reveals:\[CI_{adj} = \tilde{p} \pm z \times SE_{adj} \approx (0.993, 1)\]This interval suggests that nearly all surveyed (and by extension, possibly the broader population) do not own Google Glass. However, it leaves room to acknowledge that a tiny fraction might own it, offering a more realistic overview than the initial assessment.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Movie recommendation In a quick poll at the exit of a movie theater, 8 out of 12 randomly polled viewers said they would recommend the movie to their friends. a. Construct an appropriate \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population proportion. b. Is it plausible that only half of all the viewers will be willing to recommend the film to their friends? Explain.

News coverage during a recent election projected that a certain candidate would receive \(54.8 \%\) of all votes cast; the projection had a margin of error of \(\pm 3 \%\) a. Give a point estimate for the proportion of all votes the candidate will receive. b. Give an interval estimate for the proportion of all votes the candidate will receive. c. In your own words, state the difference between a point estimate and an interval estimate.

Talk time on smartphones One feature smartphone manufacturers use in advertising is the amount of time one can talk before recharging the battery. Below are 13 values from a random sample of the talk-time (in minutes) of smartphones running on lithium-ion batteries. The summary statistics are \(\bar{x}=553, s=227, \mathrm{Q} 1=420\) median \(=450, \mathrm{Q} 3=650 .\) Talk time: 320,360,760,580 1050,900,360,500,420,420,650,420,450 a. Construct an appropriate graph (dot plot, stem and leaf plot, histogram, box plot) to describe the shape of the distribution. What assumptions are needed to construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu,\) the mean talk time? Point out any assumptions that seem questionable. b. Check whether this data set has any potential outliers according to the criterion of (i) \(1.5 *\) IQR below \(Q 1\) or above \(\mathrm{Q} 3\) and (ii) 3 standard deviations from the mean. c. Using the summary statistics, show that the \(95 \%\) confidence interval is (416,690) . Interpret it in context. d. The value 1050 is quite a bit larger than the others. Delete this observation, find the new mean and standard deviation, and construct the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) without this observation. How does it compare to the \(95 \%\) confidence interval, using all the data?

Abstainers The Harvard study mentioned in the previous exercise estimated that \(19 \%\) of college students abstain from drinking alcohol. To estimate this proportion in your school, how large a random sample would you need to estimate it to within 0.05 with probability \(0.95,\) if before conducting the study a. You are unwilling to guess the proportion value at your school? b. You use the Harvard study as a guideline? c. Use the results from parts a and b to explain why strategy (a) is inefficient if you are quite sure you'll get a sample proportion that is far from 0.50 .

A study dealing with health care issues plans to take a sample survey of 1500 Americans to estimate the proportion who have health insurance and the mean dollar amount that Americans spent on health care this past year. a. Identify two population parameters that this study will estimate. b. Identify two statistics that can be used to estimate these parameters.

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