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Help the poor? One question (called NATFAREY) on the General Social Survey for the year 2008 asks, "Are we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on assistance to the poor?" Of the 998 people who responded in 2008 , 695 said too little, 217 said about right, and 86 said too much. a. Find the point estimate of the population proportion who would answer "about right." b. The margin of error of this estimate is \(0.05 .\) Explain what this represents.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The point estimate is approximately 0.2174. The margin of error of 0.05 represents the range of likely values around this estimate.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We are asked to find the point estimate of the population proportion who responded with "about right" in a survey and interpret the margin of error given as 0.05. This involves basic calculations using proportions from the sample data.
02

Identify the Total Sample Size and the Relevant Data

The total number of respondents is the sum of those who answered "too little," "about right," and "too much." This is calculated as: \[ 695 + 217 + 86 = 998 \] Out of these, 217 individuals responded with "about right."
03

Calculate the Point Estimate

The point estimate of the population proportion is found by dividing the number of respondents who answered "about right" by the total number of respondents. This is given by: \[ \hat{p} = \frac{217}{998} \] Solving gives: \[ \hat{p} \approx 0.2174 \] This is the point estimate of the population proportion.
04

Explain the Margin of Error

The margin of error (0.05 in this case) represents the range within which we can be confident that the true population proportion lies. Specifically, it means that the true proportion of people who think we are spending "about right" on assistance to the poor is likely between 0.2174 - 0.05 and 0.2174 + 0.05. It quantifies the uncertainty of the point estimate.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
A point estimate is a value that serves as a best guess or approximation for a population parameter. In this case, the parameter of interest is the proportion of people who think we are spending "about right" on assistance to the poor. The Point Estimate formula is shown as:\[ \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \]where \(x\) is the number of successes observed, and \(n\) is the total sample size. Here, the point estimate is calculated as \( \hat{p} = \frac{217}{998} \), which approximately equals 0.2174. The point estimate is essential because it provides an immediate and uncomplicated snapshot of the population's view without needing to study an entire population. This figure represents the best estimate of the proportion of the whole group based on the sample data.
Margin of Error
The margin of error quantifies the uncertainty of a point estimate. It creates a range around the point estimate, allowing statisticians to express the confidence level concerning an estimate's accuracy. In this case, the margin of error is given as 0.05.When a point estimate of 0.2174 is obtained, the margin of error helps to establish the interval \(0.2174 \pm 0.05\), resulting in a confidence interval ranging from 0.1674 to 0.2674. This means that we are fairly confident that the true population proportion lies within this interval.The margin of error accounts for sampling variability, indicating that if a survey were repeated many times, the calculated range would contain the true population proportion a certain percentage of those times (often 95% confidence level in social surveys). Thus, it informs about the reliability of the point estimate.
Population Proportion
Population proportion refers to the fraction of the total population experiencing a particular attribute, in this case, the population portion that believes what is being spent on assistance to the poor is "about right." This is often symbolized as \(P\), and since it is not directly known, it is estimated through a survey with the use of the point estimate.The survey collects responses from a sample to deduce the behavior of the whole population. In this exercise, 217 out of 998 surveyed individuals thought spending was "about right," leading to the calculated point estimate of approximately 0.2174.Knowing the population proportion helps in understanding public opinion and making policy decisions. It allows for evaluating how representative a sample survey is to the entire population, enhancing decision-making processes based on public preferences.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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