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Heights of seedlings Exercise 8.6 reported heights (in \(\mathrm{mm}\) ) of \(55.5,60.3,60.6,62.1,65.5,\) and 69.2 for six seedlings fourteen days after germination. a. Using software or a calculator, verify that the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean is (57.3,67.1) . b. Name two things you could do to get a narrower interval than the one in part a. c. Construct a \(99 \%\) confidence interval. Why is it wider than the \(95 \%\) interval? d. On what assumptions is the interval in part a based? Explain how important each assumption is.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 99% interval is wider because it accounts for more uncertainty. To narrow intervals, increase sample size or reduce variability. The 95% interval assumes normality, random sampling, and independence.

Step by step solution

01

Verify the Given 95% Confidence Interval

To verify that the 95% confidence interval for the population mean is (57.3, 67.1), we first calculate the sample mean (\(\bar{x}\)) and the sample standard deviation (\(s\)). Then, using the t-distribution (since the sample size is less than 30), we compute the confidence interval using the formula: \[\text{CI} = \bar{x} \pm t_{\alpha/2} \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\]where \(n\) is the sample size (which is 6 in this case), and \(t_{\alpha/2}\) is the t-value for a 95% confidence level with 5 degrees of freedom. After substituting the values, we should verify that the interval closely matches (57.3, 67.1).
02

Narrow the Confidence Interval

Two ways to get a narrower confidence interval are: 1. Increase the sample size: A larger sample size reduces the standard error, resulting in a narrower confidence interval. 2. Reduce the variability of the data: If the data is less spread out (smaller standard deviation), the confidence interval will be narrower.
03

Construct a 99% Confidence Interval

To construct a 99% confidence interval, we repeat the process from Step 1 but use the t-value corresponding to a 99% confidence level with 5 degrees of freedom. The formula remains the same: \[\text{CI} = \bar{x} \pm t_{\alpha/2} \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\] The resulting confidence interval will be wider than the 95% interval due to the larger t-value, which reflects the increased confidence and, therefore, greater uncertainty range.
04

Assumptions Underlying the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval in part a is based on several assumptions: 1. Normality: The population from which the sample is drawn is assumed to be normally distributed. This is crucial due to the small sample size. If the data is significantly non-normal, the confidence interval may not be accurate. 2. Random Sampling: The sample is assumed to be randomly selected from the population. This ensures that the inference made from the sample is representative of the population. 3. Independence: Observations are assumed to be independent of each other. This assumption is important for the validity of the statistical methods used.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size
The concept of sample size is crucial in statistical analysis as it directly influences the confidence interval of a study. A sample size refers to the number of observations or data points collected within a study. In our example with the heights of seedlings, the sample size is 6. The confidence interval, which gives a range for the population parameter (like the mean), becomes narrower with a larger sample size.

A larger sample size decreases the standard error, which is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of a statistic, by providing more information about the population. This means that the estimate of the population parameter becomes more precise because the random variation in the sample data decreases.
  • Large sample sizes contribute to accuracy.
  • They reduce variability and increase statistical power.
  • They lead to a narrower confidence interval.
This effect is mathematically shown by the factor \( \frac{1}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \(n\) is the sample size, in the formula for the confidence interval, \( \text{CI} = \bar{x} \pm t_{\alpha/2} \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \). As \(n\) increases, \( \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \) becomes smaller, resulting in a tighter estimate range.
t-distribution
The t-distribution is an important statistical tool used when working with small sample sizes, typically less than 30. When estimating a population parameter, like the mean, from a small sample, we use the t-distribution instead of the normal distribution. The t-distribution is wider and has heavier tails compared to the normal distribution.

This feature compensates for the greater uncertainty we have when dealing with small sample sizes. In our example with seedling heights, using the t-distribution with 5 degrees of freedom (sample size minus one) is appropriate.
  • The t-value depends on the desired confidence level (e.g., 95% or 99%).
  • It adjusts based on sample size, specifically the degrees of freedom, \(n-1\).
  • This leads to a wider confidence interval to account for uncertainty with smaller data sets.
As the sample size increases, the t-distribution approaches the normal distribution, meaning if our sample size were much larger, using the normal distribution would become feasible. Until then, the t-distribution accommodates the variability we must handle when sample sizes are restricted.
Random Sampling
Random sampling is pivotal for obtaining a representative sample of a population. It involves selecting a subset of individuals from a population in such a way that each member has an equal chance of being chosen. This methodology is key to ensuring that statistical results are valid and can be generalized to the entire population.
  • Eliminates selection bias.
  • Ensures each potential observational unit has an equal probability of selection.
  • Enhances the representativeness and credibility of conclusions drawn from the data.
In the context of our seedling height data, assuming random sampling was used allows us to trust that our sample mirrors the broader population of interest. It underpins the assumptions made by inferential statistics, including those concerning independence and normality.

Random sampling is one of the cornerstones of designing a study or experiment. Without it, the statistical methods used in analysis, like confidence intervals and hypothesis testing, may lead to inaccurate conclusions that do not reflect the larger group.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

When the 2000 GSS asked subjects (variable GRNSOL) if they would be willing to accept cuts in their standard of living to protect the environment, 344 of 1170 subjects said yes. a. Estimate the population proportion who would answer yes. b. Find the margin of error for a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for this estimate. c. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for that proportion. What do the numbers in this interval represent? d. State and check the assumptions needed for the interval in part \(c\) to be valid.

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