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Since events of low probability eventually happen if you observe enough trials, a monkey randomly pecking on a typewriter could eventually write a Shakespeare play just by chance. Let's see how hard it would be to type the title of Macbeth properly. Assume 50 keys for letters and numbers and punctuation. Find the probability that the first seven letters that a monkey types are macbeth. (Even if the monkey can type 60 strokes a minute and never sleeps, if we consider each sequence of seven keystrokes as a trial, we would wait on the average over 100,000 years before seeing this happen!)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is \( \frac{1}{781250000000} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We want to find the probability of a specific sequence of letters being typed by a monkey randomly hitting keys on a typewriter with 50 keys available. The sequence we are interested in is 'macbeth', which has 7 characters.
02

Calculate Probability of Each Character

Assuming each key press on the typewriter is completely random, the probability of the monkey typing any specific letter correctly is \( \frac{1}{50} \). This is because each of the 50 keys are equally likely to be pressed.
03

Calculate Combined Probability for the Sequence

To find the probability of typing the entire sequence 'macbeth', we must multiply the probabilities of typing each individual character in sequence. Thus, the probability is \( \left(\frac{1}{50}\right)^7 \).
04

Perform the Calculation

Calculate \( \left(\frac{1}{50}\right)^7 = \frac{1}{50^7} = \frac{1}{781250000000} \). This fraction is approximately equal to making the statement that for each single correctly typed sequence of 'macbeth', there are 781,250,000,000 incorrect sequences.
05

Interpret the Result

The probability of this sequence occurring randomly is extremely low, highlighting the unlikelihood of such an event happening in a short time.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Events
A random event is simply an occurrence that happens by chance, without any predictable pattern. These events are central to understanding probability theory. When considering random events, each outcome is typically unknown until it happens. For example, typing like a monkey on a typewriter where each keypress is random is a classic example.
This is because each letter or character typed by the monkey is independent of the last. Each stroke could result in a different character, making the typing activity a collection of random events.

Understanding random events helps us frame the likelihood of certain outcomes, say, typing 'macbeth' by chance. The randomness is critical, as it means no systematic approach is being used to select any particular key. It also indicates that every possible keypress has a chance of happening at any moment, resulting in an unpredictable sequence overall.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation involves determining the likelihood of a particular outcome among many possibilities. In our scenario, we calculate the probability of the monkey typing the sequence 'macbeth' on a typewriter with 50 keys.
First, let's break down how this works:
  • The probability of the monkey hitting a specific key, say 'm', is \( \frac{1}{50} \).
  • Since 'macbeth' has 7 letters, and each letter selection is independent, calculating for all letters involves raising the individual probability to the power of 7.
  • Thus, the probability of the exact sequence 'macbeth' is \( \left(\frac{1}{50}\right)^7 \).
This makes the math straightforward but reveals how quickly probabilities can shrink as sequences grow longer. One small part has a simple probability, but the overall outcome becomes minuscule with more steps involved.
Low Probability Events
Low probability events are outcomes that have a very small chance of occurring. The typing of the sequence 'macbeth' by a random monkey falls into this category. Such events, while not impossible, are rare.
The calculated probability in our exercise is \( \frac{1}{781250000000} \). This tiny probability hints at the huge level of randomness required over many trials to see this result. Even if the monkey types non-stop, the average waiting time to see 'macbeth' appear is over 100,000 years.
Low probability events teach us about patience. They show how rare combinations are much less likely to occur than common ones. The rarity is what makes these events fascinating yet challenging to anticipate in everyday scenarios. Despite their low probabilities, they remind us that given enough time and opportunities, almost anything can happen.

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