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91Ó°ÊÓ

A study shows that there is a positive correlation between \(x=\) size of a hospital (measured by its numbers of beds) and \(y=\) median number of days that patients remain in that hospital. a. Does this mean that you can shorten a hospital stay by choosing a small hospital? b. Identify a third variable that could be a common cause of \(x\) and \(y .\) Construct a hypothetical scatterplot (like Figure 3.22 for crime and education), identifying points according to their value on the third variable, to illustrate your argument.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. No, correlation does not imply causation. b. Severity of conditions could be a common cause affecting both variables.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Correlation

Correlation indicates a relationship between two variables, which means they change together. A positive correlation, like the one between the size of a hospital (number of beds) and the median number of days patients stay, means that as one variable increases, the other tends to increase as well. This does not imply causation.
02

Analyze Question (a)

The question asks if one can shorten a hospital stay by choosing a smaller hospital. Based on the correlation, we cannot make such a conclusion because correlation does not imply causation. There might be other factors influencing how long patients stay in a hospital that are not related directly to the hospital size.
03

Identify a Third Variable

A third variable could be the severity of patients' conditions. Hospitals with larger capacities (more beds) might deal with more severe and complex cases, leading to longer stays compared to smaller hospitals that might handle less severe cases.
04

Construct a Hypothetical Scatterplot

Imagine a scatterplot with hospital size on the x-axis and median length of stay on the y-axis. Color-code the points according to the severity of patients' conditions: light color for less severe cases and dark color for more severe cases. You will likely observe that hospitals with a higher number of beds, indicated by darker colored points, have longer median stays. This visualization suggests that severity, not just the number of beds, may influence both variables.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Third Variable
When examining relationships between two variables, a third variable often plays a crucial role. This is known as a 'third variable' or 'lurking variable', which can provide additional insights into the relationship originally observed. In the case of the hospital study, where a positive correlation has been observed between the hospital size (number of beds) and patients' median stay length, it's crucial to understand that a third variable might explain this relationship a lot better. Conditions and severity of illnesses are great examples of such third variables. Larger hospitals might tend to have more resources and specialized services, which attract patients with more severe or complex medical issues. Consequently, these patients may need longer stays to receive comprehensive treatments. By considering such a third variable, the real dynamics behind the observed positive correlation are brought to light, allowing more informed conclusions about the relationship between hospital size and patient stay duration.
Positive Correlation
Positive correlation occurs when two variables tend to increase or decrease together. In the hospital size study, this means as the number of beds increases, so does the average length of patient stays. It's important to note that a positive correlation between two variables does not mean that one causes the other to change. Imagine two variables, such as the size of a school and the number of books in the school's library. If you were to find a positive correlation, it shows a relationship, but doesn't necessarily imply that making the library larger will cause the school to expand or vice versa. Understanding positive correlation allows researchers and students to identify patterns, but remember to consider other possible influences, like third variables, before jumping to conclusions about cause and effect.
Scatterplot Analysis
Scatterplots are graphical representations that help visualize the relationship between two variables. Each point on a scatterplot represents an observed data pair, plotted along the axes corresponding to each variable. In the context of the hospital study, you could plot each hospital on a scatterplot with the x-axis representing the number of beds and the y-axis representing the median number of days patients stay. To give deeper insight, you might color-code these points based on the severity of the cases treated at each hospital. For instance, use lighter colors to represent less severe cases and darker colors for more severe ones. By doing this, you can observe potential patterns, like whether hospitals with higher numbers of beds and longer patient stays also tend to treat more severe cases. Scatterplot analysis thus becomes a powerful tool to uncover hidden patterns that might not be immediately visible from numerical data alone, supporting theories about the influence of third variables such as severity on the observed correlation between hospital size and patient stay length.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Most cars are fuel efficient when running at a steady speed of around 40 to \(50 \mathrm{mph}\). A scatterplot relating fuel consumption (measured in mpg) and steady driving speed (measured in mph) for a mid-sized car is shown below. The data are available in the Fuel file on the book's Web site. (Source: Berry, I. M. (2010). The Effects of Driving Style and Vehicle Performance on the Real-World Fuel Consumption of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles. Masters thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA.) a. The correlation equals \(0.106 .\) Comment on the use of the correlation coefficient as a measure for the association between fuel consumption and steady driving speed. b. Comment on the use of the regression equation as a tool for predicting fuel consumption from the velocity of the car. c. Over what subrange of steady driving speed might fitting a regression equation be appropriate? Why?

In a survey conducted in March 2013 by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, 1515 adults were asked about the effectiveness of the government in preventing terrorism and whether they believe that it could eventually prevent all major terrorist attacks. \(37.06 \%\) of the 510 adults who consider the government to be very effective believed that it can eventually prevent all major attacks, while this proportion was \(28.36 \%\) among those who consider the government somewhat, not too, or not at all effective in preventing terrorism. The other people surveyed considered that terrorists will always find a way. a. Identify the response variable, the explanatory variable and their categories. b. Construct a contingency table that shows the counts for the different combinations of categories. c. Use a contingency table to display the percentages for the categories of the response variables, separately for each category of the explanatory variable. d. Are the percentages reported in part c conditional? Explain. e. Sketch a graph that compares the responses for each category of the explanatory variable. fo Compute the difference and the ratio of proportions. Interpret. g. Give an example of how the results would show that there is no evidence of association between these variables.

In \(2014,\) the statistical summary of a weight loss survey was created and published on www.statcrunch.com. a. In this study, it seemed that the desired weight loss (in pounds) was a good predictor of the expected time (in weeks) to achieve the desired weight loss. Do you expect \(r^{2}\) to be large or small? Why? b. For this data, \(r=0.607\). Interpret \(r^{2}\). c. Show the algebraic relationship between the correlation of 0.607 and the slope of the regression equation \(b=0.437,\) using the fact that the standard deviations are 20.005 for pounds and 14.393 for weeks. (Hint: Recall that \(\left.=r \frac{s_{y}}{s_{x}} .\right)\)

Zagat restaurant guides publish ratings of restaurants for many large cities around the world (see www.zagat.com). The review for each restaurant gives a verbal summary as well as a 0 - to 30 -point rating of the quality of food, décor, service, and the cost of a dinner with one drink and tip. For 31 French restaurants in Boston in \(2014,\) the food quality ratings had a mean of 24.55 and standard deviation of 2.08 points. The cost of a dinner (in U.S. dollars) had a mean of \(\$ 50.35\) and standard deviation of \(\$ 14.92\). The equation that predicts the cost of a dinner using the rating for the quality of food is \(\hat{y}=-70+4.9 x\). The correlation between these two variables is 0.68 . (Data available in the Zagat_Boston file.) a. Predict the cost of a dinner in a restaurant that gets the (i) lowest observed food quality rating of \(21,\) (ii) highest observed food quality rating of 28 . b. Interpret the slope in context. c. Interpret the correlation. d. Show how the slope can be obtained from the correlation and other information given.

An article in the September \(16,2006,\) issue of The Economist showed a scatterplot for many nations relating the response variable \(y=\) annual oil consumption per person (in barrels) and the explanatory variable \(x=\) gross domestic product (GDP, per person, in thousands of dollars). The values shown on the plot were approximately as shown in the table. a. Create a data file and use it to construct a scatterplot. Interpret. b. Find and interpret the prediction equation. c. Find and interpret the correlation. d. Find and interpret the residual for Canada.

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